871
FXUS61 KBUF 101045
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift off the New England coast today, providing
another day of dry weather. Temperatures will trend a little warmer
this afternoon after a chilly start this morning. Low pressure will
cross the Great Lakes Saturday, then stall near Western NY Saturday
night through Monday, bringing clouds and showers at times. Mainly
dry weather will return by the middle of next week as high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies and relatively light winds will continue to support
a chilly start to the day. Latest surface observations show a
wide variety of temperatures across the region. Most areas are
in the 30s, but increasing downslope flow is holding the Lake
Erie shore in the low to mid 40s. The typically colder
sheltered valleys of the Southern Tier and North Country are in
the 20s.

Surface high pressure will drift off the New England coast today,
with lingering subsidence and dry air supporting another dry and
mostly sunny day, with just a modest increase in cirrus from west to
east later this afternoon. Increasing southerly return flow around
the departing high will allow temperatures to recover into the low
to mid 60s for lower elevations, with 50s limited to the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Tonight, a well defined mid level closed circulation and associated
weak surface low will move southeast across the Great Lakes,
reaching the eastern shores of Lake Huron by daybreak Saturday.
Increasing ascent and moisture ahead of this system will bring an
increase in clouds from west to east overnight. The first of the
showers may reach Western NY during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday,
with the greatest chance of measurable rain found across the Niagara
Frontier. Temperatures will be milder than the past few nights, with
lows in the 40s in most locations. Lewis County will still drop into
the 30s with just a little patchy frost possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A compact shortwave over Lake Huron Saturday morning is advertised
to drop southeast to Lake Erie by Saturday evening. This nearly
vertically stacked system is advertised to slowly weaken as it nears
the Lower Lakes but will bring some measure of shower activity. The
greatest chance to see measurable precipitation will `likely` be
found across the Niagara Frontier and Southern Tier where deeper
moisture and forcing will be found. All other locations, especially
east of the Genesee Valley may `not` see any precipitation Saturday
with continued dry weather.

The compact shortwave and a developing coastal low Saturday night
will begin to interact with east to southeasterly flow injecting
some Atlantic moisture back into the region. That being said...there
is the potential that we could see a better chance of precipitation
overnight but amounts could be highly variable. The coastal low will
then strengthen Sunday as it slowly moves from the Carolinas to just
off the Mid-Alantic region Sunday night. For our area...deep
moisture rotating back in and increasing lift over the eastern Great
Lakes may bring a period of widespread precipitation Sunday and
into Sunday night.


The coastal low will slowly depart out to sea Monday and Monday
night but there may still be some lingering light precipitation. The
general trend overall will be for drier weather as weak high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally drier weather expected Tuesday as a broad upper level
ridge builds across the central CONUS. A cold frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon/evening may touch off a shower but moisture
looks fairly limited with this front. After that...cool but mainly
dry weather will become established across the area. However...there
may be some lake induce showers south and southeast of the lakes
Thursday and Friday given the cool airmass but again moisture is
limited.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies this morning will give way to a modest increase in high
cirrus level clouds from west to east later this afternoon and this
evening. Overnight, a mid level closed low and associated weak
surface low will move southeast across the Great Lakes, with the
first of the showers moving into Western NY during the pre-dawn
hours of Saturday. Clouds will thicken and lower from west to east,
but CIGS will remain VFR through Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely, mainly across Western NY.

Sunday through Monday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at times.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will drift off the New England coast today,
with increasing southerly winds on the lakes tonight through
Saturday morning. This wind direction will push most of the wave
action into Canadian waters, but Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely at the northeast end of Lake Ontario. Winds will diminish and
become easterly later Saturday through Saturday night. The east
winds may increase Sunday through Monday, bringing the potential for
Small Craft Advisory conditions on the central and western portions
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>005-
     010>014-019-085.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006>008-020-
     021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
         Saturday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock