Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
654 FXUS61 KBUF 050959 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 559 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds into this afternoon. 2) Soaking rainfall this afternoon into Wednesday. 3) Frost possible Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds into this afternoon. A low level jet of 40 to 50 knots will focus across the region today. Warm advective pattern will limit degree of mixing, but momentum transfer schemes suggesting most areas looking at 25 to 35 mph gusts, with gusts to near 45 mph possible downwind of the lakes. The strongest wind gusts likely through mid afternoon, before lowering as a cold front eases into the region and the low level jet shifts east. KEY MESSAGE 2...Soaking rainfall this afternoon into Wednesday. Cold front across the central Great Lakes early this morning will approach the region today. The progress of the front through the region will be gradual as the upper flow is nearly parallel to the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning within the warm sector will increase later in the day as the cold front approaches. Shear and instability look very marginal which will limit severe potential. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will become widespread tonight into Wednesday as the front slowly pushes through the region. The primary threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall as a deep plume of precipitable water values of 1- 1.5" surge into the region. Rainfall amounts from today through Wednesday are expected to average between 0.75-1.25" in most areas, though there will likely be a swath of totals closer to 1.5" in the corridor between the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region. Locally higher totals will be possible deepening on how convection evolves. KEY MESSAGE 3...Frost possible Thursday night. Much cooler air will settle into the region through mid week. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night likely drop into the 30s. There is the potential for frost, though this will be highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover in place and the resulting radiational cooling. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lingering LLWS owing to a 40-45 knot jet at 1.5-2 kft off the deck will quickly diminish with increasing diurnal mixing during the first couple hours of the TAF period...with the increased mixing also allowing surface wind gusts to quickly climb into the 25-30 knot range in many areas...and to 30-35 knots downwind of the lakes out ahead of the approaching cold front. The winds will be strongest from mid-morning through about mid-afternoon...then will markedly fall off from NW-SE with the arrival of the cold front. Otherwise we can expect a relative lull in precipitation into midday with just a few scattered showers and predominantly VFR conditions...with some MVFR ceilings possibly developing across far western New York. Conditions will then trend notably downhill through the afternoon and early evening hours as the cold front arrives...with deepening moisture and lift along it generating increasingly widespread showers along with some scattered thunderstorms. The greatest chances for any storms look to extend from the interior of the Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and central New York...where some modest instability looks to develop out ahead of the cold front. As all this occurs...ceilings will lower to mainly MVFR with some IFR possible across the Southern Tier...with reductions in visibility to MVFR/IFR also possible within any heavier showers and storms. While the cold front itself will slide off to our southeast this evening and bring an end to any instability/potential for thunder... another wave of low pressure will ripple northeastward along the slow-moving boundary and generate additional widespread light to moderate rainfall through the rest of the night. The resultant continued moistening of the low levels and developing upslope northeasterly flow will result in flight conditions further deteriorating to widespread IFR across the lower elevations... and to LIFR across the higher terrain. Outlook... Wednesday...Widespread rain tapering off from northwest to southeast...with morning IFR/LIFR improving to low-end VFR across the lower elevations and MVFR across the higher terrain. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers across the Southern Tier. Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with increasing chances for showers in the afternoon both days. && .MARINE... High pressure will track off the mid-Atlantic coast today. A tight pressure gradient will remain through this afternoon before weakening tonight. A cold front moving through today will aid in bringing some higher winds to the surface for the marine areas with weak cold air advection, but the low level jet is expected to weaken behind the front. This will result in a moderate to fresh breeze lasting through early afternoon. In general, winds and waves will remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria most of the time, but it will be very choppy on both lakes. Showers with a few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially this afternoon and tonight. A few storms may contain locally gusty winds. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...JJR MARINE...TMA