416
FXUS61 KBUF 201524
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1124 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough stretching
northward across Western New York, will track south of the state
line today with scattered afternoon showers. A few rain showers
tonight with a cool northeast wind before activity ends and a period
of fair weather commences Thursday through the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There will be a gradual drying trend this afternoon and evening as
an inverted surface trough across the area fades to the south. Cold
air advection within northeast flow may bring reverse flow light
lake effect rain showers along both eastern Great Lakes, with
perhaps these showers grazing the southern shoreline of Lake Erie
tonight.

Thursday will start with clouds around but as moisture depleted from
top to bottom in the atmosphere we could start to see some breaks in
the clouds from north to south through the afternoon hours.
Northeast flow will maintain pleasantly cool afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A long wave ridge will build into the Great Lakes region Thursday
night through Friday night. An upper level trough moving down from
Canada will cause the ridge to suppress southward beginning
Saturday. High pressure will settle across the region Thursday night
through Friday night and dry weather is expected during this time.
The high will move east Saturday and return flow brings moisture up
from the south, a few showers and storms can`t be ruled out Saturday
afternoon.

High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, while low
temperatures will be near normal Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An anomalously deep trough will move into the Great Lakes region
this weekend into next work week. This pattern shift will bring
cool, unsettled weather to western and north-central NY.

Deep moisture will surge northward ahead of the upper level trough
Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach the region
Saturday night and showers and a few storms should expand in
coverage across the region. Coverage of strong thunderstorms will
depend on the timing of the front Sunday. A cooler airmass will move
into the region with mean 850mb temperatures falling to the single
digits by Monday-Tuesday. As embedded shortwave troughs and
associated moisture pass through the region, showers with lake
enhancement will be possible early next week.

It is likely that temperatures will be below normal Monday through
Wednesday, with day times highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, warmest
along the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widely scattered light showers and patchy drizzle will remain across
the area this afternoon. Flight conditions at IFR or lower will
likely persist through at least 18z in the light precipitation and
low stratus, before gradually improving to MVFR through the rest of
the afternoon and evening.

Though the rain showers and drizzle will end tonight, low level
moisture will linger with MVFR ceiling heights continuing. IFR
possible across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough stretching
northward across Western New York, will track south of the state
line today. Conditions become somewhat favorable for waterspouts on
Lake Erie today with the passage of the surface trough.

With this low passing from Lake Erie and then just southward of the
state line northeast flow will dominate the next 48 hours...with
speeds over 20 knots on both Lake Erie and the central and western
waters of Lake Ontario maintaining small craft headlines.

Though the northeast flow continues Thursday, wind speeds will begin
to lower by Thursday night allowing for waves to begin to diminish
and ending the SCA period. A lighter wind flow is then expected for
Friday and Saturday, becoming southerly ahead of an upstream cold
front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for NYZ001-
     002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA