805
FXUS61 KBUF 151104
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjustments made to precipitation type Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A pair of weak systems may bring some light precipitation tonight
and again Monday night.

2) An active pattern returns by the middle of the week with
chances for rain, snow, and potentially a wintry mix at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A pair of weak systems may bring some light
precipitation tonight and again Monday night.

Weak high pressure will provide a brief period of generally quite
weather until tonight.

Tonight, a fast moving shortwave trough will cross the Lower Lakes
with its warm frontal segment producing some very light
precipitation in spots. The greatest chance to see measurable
precipitation appears to be from the Finger Lakes region east and
northeast across the North Country, with lesser chances across
Western NY. Although the precipitation is anticipated to be light
BUFKIT profiles do suggest that there could be some spotty -FZDZ
where surface temperatures remain below freezing. Additionally...we
may see some fog development this evening and tonight, this as
a somewhat warmer airmass moves over the snowpack in place.

Otherwise...any lingering precipitation Monday morning ends with dry
weather expected until Monday evening.

The next shortwave quickly dives southeast towards the Lower Lakes
Monday evening and Monday night. This system will bring a chance of
some rain and snow showers, with a higher probability again east of
Lake Ontario. We even may see some spotty -FRDZ again where
temperatures remain at or below freezing as moisture depletes within
the DGZ overnight.

Dry weather returns Tuesday as weak high moves over the region and
temperatures peaking in the 30s to low and mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An active pattern returns by the middle of the
week with chances for rain, snow, and potentially a wintry mix
at times.

Deeper Pacific-based troughing will continue to encroach on the
Great Lakes region through the remainder of the week. In contrast to
the clipper systems earlier in the week, deeper synoptic moisture
and broader scale height falls will finally arrive late Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with significantly higher chances for
precipitation overspreading the forecast area from the W/NW. The
initial sfc low associated with this slug of precip will weaken
substantially as it extends across the forecast area and into the
Northeast from the Upper Midwest, with a break likely before the
next Pacific wave arrives on Friday.

Precip type continues to be a significant forecast challenge in the
second half of the week as strong Arctic high pressure near Hudson
Bay will extend down across central/eastern Canada as these systems
approach from the west. This will cause a mid-level thermal gradient
to set up over the eastern Great Lakes, which will support marginal
temperature profiles for both rain and frozen precipitation. This
boundary will also wobble northward to at least some extent as the
lows track into the region. This will likely depend on the exact
track and strength of the lows however, which still remains somewhat
uncertain as long range guidance continues to waffle back and forth
between colder and warmer solutions.

In general, rain will be the favored precipitation type outside of
the North Country through at least early Friday, with snow more
heavily favored from the Tug Hill region northward. While a few wet
flakes could mix in further south at times, will also need to keep
an eye the potential for a wintry mix including freezing rain (and
to a lesser extent sleet) across the area. Thermal profiles need to
be just right for this to occur so confidence remains far too low to
begin highlighting this risk in other products, but it is plausible
given the synoptic setup. At this range, the risk for freezing rain
will be highest at precipitation onset early Wednesday morning and
again early Friday morning, especially before dawn.

Outside of the wintry precip potential, will also need to monitor
how the above freezing temperatures and rain further ripen the
snowpack, increase runoff, and cause ice to shift on area creeks and
streams in the second half of the week. Water levels may already be
swollen from the warmup earlier in the week which could cause or
exacerbate hydro issues.

Looking towards next weekend, long range ensembles are relatively
consistent in much colder air wrapping back in behind the late-week
Pacific wave. This will likely cause any rain or mixed precip to
change over to all snow, with 850mb temps eventually becoming cold
enough for at least some lake enhancement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shallow low-level moisture and stratus may at times bring very
localized restrictions at terminals through early this morning.

The low stratus will erode a bit this morning, with most areas
seeing temporary improvement to VFR. Another area of low stratus
will advect northward into Western NY during the late afternoon,
then spread northeast across the remainder of the area Sunday
evening. This will bring a return to widespread MVFR-IFR CIGS and
lowering vsbys this evening.

A fast moving shortwave will maintain MVFR-IFR cigs with some rain
and snow showers tonight, the greatest chances will be east of Lake
Ontario (KART). While low...there will also be a low end chance of
some spotty -FRDZ, mainly where temperatures remain at or below
freezing. Additionally...we may see some areas of fog develop as a
somewhat warmer airmass moves over the snowpack.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...MVFR-IRR cigs briefly improve to VFR at
some area terminals Monday afternoon. The next system arrives Monday
night with another round of MVFR-IFR cigs and a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Wednesday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain and/or snow becoming
likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, with pockets of lingering IFR with a chance of
rain and snow.

&&

.MARINE...
The next fast moving shortwave will move through the Lower Lakes
tonight and another one Monday night. Winds are expected to remain
below Small Craft conditions with each of these features as they
pass by the region.

A more potent system will arrive mid-next week with increasing
westerly flow likely to bring small craft conditions to the western
and southern shoreline of Lake Ontario.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR