Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
982 FXUS61 KBUF 042340 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend with a return of heat and humidity. A few showers or thunderstorm will also be possible. A cold front will then slowly move southeast bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fantastic 4th of July weather will persist through tonight and all of the overnight hours. Overnight lows will range from near 60 for WNY to the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. A weak warm front will track northeast across the forecast area Saturday. Weak synoptic forcing and instability may induce a few showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest potential across the western Southern Tier, but a shower/storm can`t be ruled out for most of the forecast area. Clouds will increase some, but plenty of breaks in the coverage expected. Winds are expected to remain at or below 10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The heat and humidity will continue make a return Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of a flattening mid-level ridge slides east across the Northeast, while multiple partially phasing shortwave troughs ripple across the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Associated surface high pressure with the aforementioned ridge will support dry weather to prevail. As alluded to previously, 850 mb temperatures will warm to around +20C Sunday, resulting in surface high temperatures well into the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few mid 90s possible across the warmer spots of the Genesee Valleys. Cooler temperatures will lie along the shorelines of both lakes and a few miles inland due to the lake breeze. With humidity levels creeping up, a few locations across Livingston and Ontario county may reach Heat Advisory criteria for a few hours. Due to the phasing of the multiple shortwave troughs passing east across the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday, a surface cold front will slide from northwest to southeast Monday. As the day progresses, a ribbon of moisture will set up across southcentral New York, supporting showers and thunderstorms to blossom on the southeastern fringes of the forecast area (i.e. the Finger Lakes region) Monday afternoon. Similar to the front that passed through yesterday (July 3) afternoon, a few scattered rain showers will be possible Monday morning before diurnal effects support showers and storms to blossom by the afternoon. General broad troughing will then set up across the area Monday night, supporting cooler and drier air to advect into the area, supporting conditions to dry out and be favorable sleeping conditions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad troughing set up across the Great Lakes Tuesday through Friday will allow for a few shortwave passages throughout the rest of the work week before pulling the pattern east by Friday night. With each shortwave passage expect increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. This being said, the whole week won`t be a wash out as plenty of dry time will ensue between shortwave passages. There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing and location of the shortwave later in the week and therefore the extent of any diurnally convection along with it. Will have to keep an eye on it as it gets closer. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal for the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure to maintained VFR across all terminals through tonight. VFR conditions persist Saturday for most terminals. Clouds along with a few showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon, mainly for the western Southern Tier, including at JHW. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR. Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Sprawling high pressure will slowly drift to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight. Light winds and minimal waves will be maintained on area lakes. The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/JJR