872
FXUS61 KBUF 140640
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and mostly dry weather through early Tuesday morning.

2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible along a
stationary front Tuesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and mostly dry weather through early Tuesday
morning.

A strong northern stream trough will move across the eastern Great
Lakes region today, bringing northwest flow and cold air advection
that will result in a cooler day. 850mb temperatures will drop to
around +4 deg C by this afternoon. Due to a dry airmass,
minimal lake effect response is expected, though lake effect
clouds and widely scattered showers are possible along the I-90
corridor this morning. Surface high pressure will build from the
west, bringing widespread dry weather this afternoon through
tonight.

Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with
highs in the mid to upper 60s, low 60s across the higher terrain.
Efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into
the 40s, with upper 30s in the interior valleys of the Southern Tier
and Black River Valley of Lewis county. Patchy frost is possible in
far southern Lewis county late tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible
along a stationary front Tuesday night through Thursday night.

Surface high pressure will move off the New England coast Tuesday. A
northern stream trough will move across central Canada/Hudson Bay
through mid-week. A cold front associated with low pressure near
Hudson Bay will approach the region Tuesday. Warm air advection and
a surface warm front will result in high temperatures moving back
into the 70s. A few showers can`t be ruled out across the Niagara
Frontier Tuesday afternoon, with dry weather expected elsewhere.

The trough will move by to the north through Thursday and zonal flow
is expected across the region. The cold front is expected to sag
southward across the forecast area late Tuesday night through
Wednesday, becoming stationary through Thursday. A corridor of deep
moisture along the front is expected to settle across the region
with the potential for PWATS over 1.6". Chances for showers will
increase beginning Tuesday night. The stationary front will become
the focus of precipitation Wednesday through Thursday, however there
is some uncertainity in the forecast due to the potential for
the front to oscillate. Guidance suggests a wave of low
pressure may move along the front and bring the potential for
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the forecast area
late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The front is expected to move south of the region Thursday night
into Friday. Surface high pressure will support drier weather Friday
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region this morning. Scattered showers will exit to the east by
daybreak with VFR conditions expected region-wide.

Cool, northwest flow across the warm Lakes will generate lake clouds
and the potential for widely scattered lake effect rain showers from
KBUF/IAG to KROC through noon. Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible
from KIAG to KROC during this time, with VFR conditions elsewhere.

Surface high pressure will move across the region this evening
through early Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will continue most of
the night, with patchy fog developing across valley locations of the
Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Black River Valley. Brief periods
of IFR/LIFR are possible, however due to a strengthening low level
jet, confidence is low that these criteria will be met at KJHW.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Friday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Post-frontal northwest winds will continue to produce Small Craft
Advisory conditions on portions of the Lower Great Lakes this
morning. The strongest winds and highest wave action will be found
along the nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Mexico bay in
the northwest flow regime. Choppy conditions will continue on Lake
Erie early this morning, with winds and waves remaining below
criteria.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes through
tonight, with winds and waves subsiding. A southerly wind will
increase on the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday. Winds will slowly veer
southwest, and winds and waves may reach Small Craft Criteria from
Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River by Tuesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ001-002.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK