786
FXUS61 KBUF 131734
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening, with a
few more scattered showers overnight. A few storms may produce
isolated strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours.

2) Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning, then
trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms through early
evening, with a few more scattered showers overnight. A few storms
may produce isolated strong wind gusts and brief heavy downpours.

A sharp mid level trough will advance from Ontario to Quebec
tonight, with DPVA and height falls spreading east across the
eastern Great Lakes through this evening and providing large scale
ascent. The associated surface cold front will come through in
pieces, with the first boundary crossing the eastern Great Lakes
early this evening, and a secondary cold front overnight.

Convective initiation will primarily occur on lake breeze
convergence zones this afternoon, with the main boundary stretching
from the Niagara Peninsula east to Rochester. Some additional
development will also occur along the southern edge of enhanced flow
off Lake Erie from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes.
The first cold front and associated veering low/mid level flow will
capture these lake breeze initiated storms and move them southeast
across the area late this afternoon through early evening. A few
scattered showers may linger through the evening hours across the
higher terrain of the Finger Lakes and Tug Hill region, but any
thunderstorms should end by around or shortly after sunset.

Strong shear profiles are in place across the eastern Great Lakes as
a belt of enhanced flow propagates through the base of the digging
trough. Weak to moderate instability will be in place, although
relatively poor mid level lapse rates will yield tall/skinny CAPE
profiles. Given the strong shear profiles, any larger sustained
updrafts will have the potential to produce isolated damaging wind
gusts and hail, but latest CAMS guidance suggests this potential
will remain limited in coverage and scope. The main window for
stronger storms will be roughly 2 PM to 7 PM.

Overnight, the secondary cold front will move southeast across the
eastern Great Lakes. The airmass aloft may grow cold enough to
support a brief period of scattered light lake effect rain showers,
mainly across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Any
showers that develop will end early Monday morning as a much drier
synoptic scale airmass arrives.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning,
then trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

A much cooler airmass will briefly settle into the eastern Great
Lakes Monday, with 850MB temps bottoming out in the +4C to +6C
range. This will only support highs in the mid to upper 60s for
lower elevations, and lower 60s for higher terrain. The cool
northwest flow will support some lake effect and upslope clouds in
the morning, but these will scatter out later in the day as dry air
and subsidence build into the region.

Surface high pressure will settle over NY and western New England
Monday night, with good radiational cooling conditions allowing for
lows to drop back into the 40s areawide. A few of the normally
colder Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region may make a run at
the upper 30s, but any patchy frost is likely to remain confined to
the coldest spots in the Adirondacks.

The high will move quickly east off the New England coast Tuesday,
with strong warm advection developing following a chilly start to
the day.

A cold front will cross the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Wednesday, bringing the next chance of showers. The front may stall
and oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night through Thursday night, supporting
ongoing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS showers and thunderstorms are beginning to blossom
along lake breeze boundaries across WNY. Expect this activity to
increase through the afternoon as MUCAPE values increase to 1000 to
2000 J/KG, with activity focusing upon these lake breeze boundaries.
This will include KIAG, KROC and KJHW terminals, where within any
stronger thunderstorms wind gusts to over 30 knots will be briefly
possible. Additional brief IFR visibility will be possible within
any heavier storms.

As the cold front bears down upon our region, showers to the north
of KBUF will begin to slide southward, possibly crossing the
airfields late this afternoon and early evening.

A few inland showers or a thunderstorm across the North Country this
afternoon, but not as deep instability will lower chances for
convection at KART.

As the cold front crosses the TAF region this evening convection
will taper down to scattered showers from west to east, with winds
becoming northwest.

A much chillier airmass will create a few lake clouds southeast of
the Lakes, with a spot shower or two near KROC before daybreak.
Drier air funneled southward ahead of an incoming area of high
pressure will quickly erode low lake effect clouds with VFR flight
conditions returning for the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday...Dry weather expected. Localized MVFR to LIFR in early
morning valley fog across the Western Southern Tier. Otherwise VFR
expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

Friday...Mainly VFR, an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move slowly east across northern Quebec tonight,
with post-frontal northwest flow producing Small Craft Advisory
conditions on portions of the lower Great Lakes. The strongest winds
and highest wave action will be found along the nearshore zones from
the Niagara River to Mexico bay in the northwest flow regime. Winds
will be somewhat lighter from Buffalo to Ripley, with winds and
waves likely staying just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Monday through
Monday night, with winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday
         for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock