248
FXUS61 KBUF 200006
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
806 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area Sunday with a return to
sunshine and somewhat cooler temperatures for the second half of the
weekend. Another front will then cross the region Monday with the
next round of showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front will exit tonight. Any leftover showers will end by
midnight with partial clearing overnight.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Sunday, with
associated dry air and subsidence bringing a return to sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler than today, but not far from average for
the third week in April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday
night will continue to travel east Monday. Meanwhile the next trough
across the Central Plains will lift northeast towards and across the
upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec by
Tuesday. After initial dry weather Sunday night, associated low
pressure over Iowa late Sunday night will lift northeast across the
upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec Monday
night into Tuesday morning, resulting in a pair of frontal
boundaries to pass across the region Monday into Tuesday morning. As
such, expect the next round of rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms to spread from west to east Monday.

The aforementioned trough axis will pull east across the area
Tuesday, with surface high pressure building in across the central
and eastern Great Lakes. This being said, by Tuesday morning the
bulk of the shower activity associated with the frontal passage will
be to the east of the forecast area. Though dry, it will be breezy
Tuesday with westerly gusts up to 40mph at times. Additionally, in
the wake of the front cooler temperatures will advect in across the
region, dropping day time highs back towards normal for mid to late
April.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow will set up across the central and eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday through Saturday. However, a weak shortwave will ripple
through Thursday with a more potent trough to begin to develop
upstream across the upper Great Lakes late in the week/early
weekend. As such, expect mainly dry weather Wednesday and Thursday
with a slight chance for a few showers with the shortwave passage
Thursday. Then, with the aforementioned developing trough across the
upper Great Lakes, timing and strength of this feature continues to
remain uncertain. This being said, didn`t stray from the NBM
(National Blend of Models) for Friday through the start of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front exiting the region this evening. MVFR ceilings possible
through 04z otherwise becoming VFR as high pressure builds into the
region. VFR flight conditions will last through the day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, chance of a few
thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerly winds behind an exiting cold front this evening
will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Winds will become northwest later tonight and gradually
diminish, bringing an end to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Sunday morning will still be choppy on Lake Ontario with elevated
northwest winds. High pressure will then build into the lower Great
Lakes in the afternoon, with subsiding winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA