533
FXUS61 KBUF 150647
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
247 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible from
tonight through Thursday night.

2) Temperatures on Friday night will be cool behind a front with
lows near 40 degrees for portions of the Tug Hill.

3) Moisture returns over the weekend with another chance of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday with lower
chances continuing into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong high pressure overhead this morning will move
off the New England Coast by tonight. Mid and high level moistre
will overspread the area today with increasing cloud cover while low
level dry air is slow to overcome. The upper level ridge axis will
expand into western New York today but will be suppressed slightly
to the south tonight as a trough swings across northern Ontario into
Quebec. Expect to see scattered light showers develop tonight. Can
not rule out a thunderstorm or two but instability is limited and
mainly confined to areas east of Lake Erie.

Surface low pressure tracks from near Hudson Bay to northern Quebec
with the trailing frontal boundary settling south into the area on
Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s but
may be impacted by coverage of showers. CAPE values peak in the 500-
1000 J/kg range across the southern tier and a few thunderstorms may
try to develop late afternoon. Pops are generally in the chance
range as placement could end up just a little farther south
into PA.

Models do show some spread by Thursday morning with regards to where
this boundary may be located. It very well could lift back north
during the day on Thursday with additional showers before strong
high pressure builds south out of Ontario with the airmass drying
out for Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong high pressure will build south out of Canada
on Friday night. Light wind conditions are expected towards the
Adirondacks while better chances for clouds are focused in SW New
York. While most of the area can expect lows in the upper 40s
to near 50 degrees, portions of the Tug Hill may see lows fall
to near 40 degrees with a few cooler spots if ideal radiational cooling
conditions develop.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure will track out of the Plains across the
Central and Eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a
little more focused potential for showers and possibly
thunderstorms, Saturday night into Sunday. Probabilities of half
inch of rain or more are generally in the 50-60 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for the bulk of the TAF period. Some
low VFR clouds have developed off the lake and into the Tug Hill
region, including near KART. These will maintain through daybreak
and will stave off any non-VFR conditions. Meanwhile, in the
Southern Tier, calm and clear conditions may allow for some pre-dawn
fog and mist and have introduced some MVFR into KJHW.

High pressure will continue east of the region with a warm front
lifting through the eastern Great Lakes. Winds on the warm sector of
this front will be generally southerly. Some gusts in the 20 to 30
kt range will be possible this morning and afternoon, especially in
the typical downslope areas. A weakening cold front will approach
from the west toward the end of the TAF period, bringing lowering
ceilings along with some rain chances. With a slowing and weakening
front and unfavorable timing, rain will be fairly scattered and any
TS activity should be west of the airspace, holding off until
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered
showers possible. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely at
times along with a chance of a few thunderstorms.

Friday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will be favored on the lake today with high pressure
departing the region to the east and the area in the warm sector of
a system moving through the Great Lakes. A weakening cold front will
move across the lake tonight into Wednesday and shift winds to the
west then north then east through Wednesday night. Any onshore flow
on Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain in the 5 to 10 kt range
and resultant waves should be minor. The former cold front will
settle south of the lake and a weak low will move along the boundary
for Thursday, allowing for north to northeast winds to return to the
basin. High pressure will build from the northwest starting on
Thursday night through Saturday. Northwest to north winds of 10 to
15 kts will be favored on Thursday night through Friday night and 1
to 3 ft waves will be possible along the southern shores of the
lake. As the system departs to the east, easterly flow will be
favored on Saturday. Overall, no marine headlines are expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic