677
FXUS61 KBUF 301702
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through the holiday
weekend, providing day-to-day warming and fair dry weather into the
start of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Latest satellite and observations shows scattered daytime cumulus
developing inland from the lakes early since late this morning and
continuing into the afternoon. Greater coverage of clouds and a few
sprinkles sit over portions of Jefferson Co and the Saint Lawrence
valley closer to the upper level low to our northeast. This system
will be responsible for gusty west/northwest winds across eastern
portions of Lake Ontario through this evening before pressure
gradients begin to relax.

In the wake of the upper level low moving over ME, high pressure
continues to slide in across much of the Great Lakes region that
will promote dry weather across the area tonight through the holiday
weekend. Clearing skies and calming winds will promote efficient
radiational cooler through early Sunday morning. With overnight lows
overachieving this morning, leaning towards the lower end of the NBM
distribution, especially across the Southern Tier where Sunday
morning temperatures may drop into the mid-30s briefly. After the
cool start, daytime temperatures on Sunday will be ~5 degF warmer
than Saturday as 850mb temps begin to approach 10 degC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During this period broad/weak upper level troughing will be in place
aloft...while surface-based ridging initially sprawled across New
York State gradually settles off the New England coastline. While
some guidance packages (most notably the NAM/GFS) try to develop
some instability showers across northern NY (along and just east of
the upper trough axis) Tuesday afternoon...this looks overdone and
has therefore been disregarded for now...with fair dry weather thus
expected to continue to prevail throughout this period. Otherwise
continued gradual airmass modification will allow the slow day-to-
day warming trend to persist...with highs mostly ranging through the
70s both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
During the remainder of the week upper-level ridging will amplify
across western North America...while downstream a deepening upper-
level trough will once again overspread the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Meanwhile at the surface...an attendant...elongated
surface low and cold front will make their way east and across our
region...with forcing and moisture return along/ahead of this
boundary currently looking sufficient for another round of fairly
numerous showers...and perhaps a couple embedded thunderstorms
depending upon its timing.

Speaking of which...the various guidance packages continue to
exhibit quite a bit of spread with respect to the timing of this
next system...with this likely to be a function of just how much
phasing occurs with a possible southern stream trough/surface wave.
This results in an envelope of possibilities ranging from Wednesday
night/Thursday on the fast end to Friday/Friday night on the slow
end...with the consensus currently lying somewhere in the Thursday/
Thursday night time frame. Given the resulting uncertainty...have
leaned more toward the latter and have capped PoPs in the likely
range for now.

What is more certain is that the gradual warming trend from earlier
in the week will be brought to an abrupt halt by the passage of this
system...with the much cooler airmass following in its wake driving
temps back to notably below normal levels by the end of the week/
start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the forecast
period. FEW-SCT daytime fair weather cumulus around 5 kft will
continue through this afternoon before skies clear tonight.
Additionally, gusty winds for terminals east of Lake Ontario,
including KART, will diminish this evening with generally calm winds
across most western NY terminals. The one exception to VFR
conditions will be across the Southern Tier where localized valley
fog may develop with reductions to visibility possible, including
near KJHW.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with scattered rain showers and gusty winds along a
cold frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate westerly to northwesterly winds over the lakes
will bring choppy conditions to both lakes at times through the day
today. Winds across the eastern half of Lake Ontario will increase
this afternoon with lower end Small Craft Advisory conditions expected
for areas east of Hamlin Beach into the evening.

With high pressure building into the region, winds and waves will
diminish later in the evening and are expected to then remain below
SCA levels through at least the remainder of the holiday weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...SW