676
FXUS61 KBUF 220556
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a gradual warm
up through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a
gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.

A strong cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
this morning. Elevated instability and deep moisture will support
showers and a few thunderstorms along the front. Cold air advection
within a westerly flow will bring an abrupt airmass change to the
region causing 850mb temperatures will fall to +6C by this afternoon
and limit high temperatures to the 60s to low 70s. Based on past
soundings at KBUF, +6C at 850mb is below the 10th percentile and
near the daily min for this time of year. Steepening low level lapse
rates under an upper level trough will support widely scattered
showers with lake enhancement focusing showers and lake clouds east-
southeast of the Lakes today.

High pressure will build in tonight and reside across the region
through Friday bringing dry weather and a gradual warming trend
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region early this morning.
VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected with isolated areas of IFR across the
higher terrain. Mostly MVFR ceilings are expected today. Showers and
an isolated thunderstorm are possible along the front and may
produce a brief period of IFR this morning.

A much cooler airmass will filter into the region today. MVFR
ceilings will improve to low end VFR. Scattered showers will focus
southeast of the Lakes through this evening. High pressure moves
into the region tonight and widespread VFR is expected. The only
exception is the potential for patchy fog late tonight, however
confidence is low.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds will increase on the Lakes behind a cold front
this morning. Small Craft conditions are expected on Lake Ontario
through tonight. Winds and waves are just under small craft on Lake
Erie, however a moderate chop will continue today. A cool airmass
within westerly flow will support scattered showers with a slight
chance of waterspouts on the eastern end of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario today.

Light winds and calm waters are expected Thursday through Saturday
as high pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK