Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
484 FXUS61 KBUF 161056 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 656 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will continue for the first half of the weekend. A cold front will bring the chance for some showers on Sunday, followed by cooler weather for the start of the work week. An area of low pressure will approach the Great Lakes region through mid-week bringing a period of unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure along the east coast will move out to sea today. Winds will remain light, with lake breezes creating a gentle breeze this afternoon. Warm air advection will result in another warm day with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Weak troughing and limited moisture will support in cu development across the forecast area. There is an area of deeper moisture east of the area, which may result in a shower or two across the far interior portion of the forecast area this afternoon. A robust shortwave trough and plume of deep moisture will move across the Central Great Lakes region this evening, reaching western NY early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from Ontario and Quebec overnight. These features will increase chances for showers and a few storms across far western NY and the Saint Lawrence Valley late tonight. Uncertainty is high in regards to the coverage of showers and time of arrival late tonight but consensus has possible showers arriving after 3AM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A wavy cold front within a large trough will track across the area on Sunday with the best chance for showers expected through mid afternoon. A passing shortwave trough within the larger trough will help increase forcing some, but the better forcing with the front and shortwave trough will be fairly quick to move through the region. Some thunderstorms will be possible with the showers with the peak heating of the day, but timing of the front and shortwave trough will bring the best chance for thunderstorms southeast of the lakes (interior western Southern Tier to northern Finger Lakes area). These areas will have a little more instability with the later timing of the frontal passage. Ahead of the front, moisture levels will increase with PWats exceeding 1.50". This will also create a more humid feel to the temperatures prior to the frontal passage. There remains some uncertainty among the higher resolution guidance on timing of the first batch of showers in the morning on Sunday, so that will need to be monitored. An area of high pressure over Canada will take a ESE track, similar to what the sfc high did the past few days over the region, just a bit quicker. The high will track from the ON/QC border Sunday night to the eastern portion of QC and the Canadian Maritimes. This will provide mostly dry conditions late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the passing cold front, especially for Monday. Temperatures on Sunday will reach the low to mid 80s from north to south with the passing cold front, with some mid 70s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will continue to cool into Monday with below normal highs expected and afternoon temperatures reaching from near 70 to near 80 from the higher to lower elevations respectively. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level troughing will remain in place while briefly amplifying across the Great Lakes/Northeast through midweek as a another shortwave trough dives southeastward along its southwestern periphery. Conditions may become a bit more unsettled Monday night through Wednesday owing to the passage of the shortwave trough... however with quite a bit of uncertainty remaining with respect to its strength...timing...and track have kept shower probabilities in the chance (30-50% range)...with the greatest potential for these currently indicated across the Southern Tier. Dry weather should then become re-established across the area Wednesday night through Friday with the return of surface-based ridging. With respect to temperatures...cooler weather (with highs primarily in the 70s) should continue through Wednesday...with gradual day-to-day warming expected thereafter as the upper level trough departs...and the large-scale flow across our region consequently becomes more zonal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue across most of western and north central NY this morning. The one exception will be across the western Southern Tier where valley fog may pose a risk of IFR conditions at KJHW. VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Winds will remain light, with lake breezes producing a gentle breeze this afternoon. Winds should stay below 10 kts. Showers may approach western NY late tonight. Some guidance shows scattered showers with a few thunderstorms, however confidence is low. Flight conditions may drop to low-end VFR to MVFR by 12Z Sunday. Outlook... Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Monday...VFR. Tuesday and Tuesday night...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local cig/vsby restrictions. Wednesday...Localized cig/vsby restrictions possible especially early in the day, otherwise mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA levels today. Gentle onshore breezes during the afternoon hours may cause a slight chop at times though otherwise calm conditions are expected today. Winds and waves will increase on both lakes starting tonight as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. Winds and waves may become high enough late Sunday into Monday morning to need SCA, especially for Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK/PP