Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
024 FXUS61 KBUF 182359 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 659 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will pass across Ohio and Pennsylvania tonight, with perhaps a light rain or snow shower making it across the border into the Southern Tier. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail through Thursday, with temperatures moderating to near normal by Thursday. The next storm system will bring mainly plain rain Thursday night through Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WV satellite imagery this evening depicts a shortwave trough moving east across the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, regional radar and sfc obs indicates an area of mixed rain/snow showers between central MI and central Lake Erie on the northern periphery of the system`s sfc low. An elongated surface high over the Central and Eastern Great Lakes will limit the northern extent of this moisture and precip through tonight, with the upstream shortwave tracking east-southeastward. Precipitation chances remain low for our CWA with just a chance PoP overnight for rain or snow near the state line of the Southern Tier. Northerly flow ahead of this surface high along with cold air advection will bring lake effect clouds to the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario tomorrow before a wealth of dry air associated with the surface high brings mostly sunny skies to our region. While tomorrow evening will likely start with clear skies, mid and high level clouds will increase through the night with a subtle shortwave rippling along a now zonal flow aloft. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure exits off to our east Thursday and then out to sea Thursday night. Overall...dry weather will continue one more day (Thursday) and then the front nearing the Lower Lakes will bring increasing chances for showers Late Thursday night and Friday. Mild airmass streaming into the region will support precipitation to fall in the liquid form ahead of the cold front. The cold front sweeps through the area Friday afternoon ushering in a colder (850 T`s of -3C to -6C) but fairly dry airmass. Given that...the lack of moisture in the wake of the cold front will limit lake effect showers E-ESE of the lakes Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Subsidence and drier air associated with the sfc high building in from the west is expected to provide largely dry weather for the weekend. Low pressure moving east along the U.S./Canadian border may bring the next better chance of showers by Monday, dependent on track and timing. After that, it looks like high pressure may bring a return to dry weather to wrap up this period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Wednesday the region will remain sandwiched between a low pressure system moving east across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid Atlantic states, and a thin wedge of high pressure extending down from the Upper Great Lakes. The high will then build further southeast into lower Great Lakes behind the system and through the day Wednesday. This will allow for mainly VFR weather to prevail with two potential exceptions: The first will be from the system itself which may bring MVFR/IFR cigs and light scattered mixed rain/snow showers northward into the Southern Tier. The potential for this should be maximized from KJHW to KELZ between 02z and 09. The second will come as a cold but light and dry northerly flow develops as the system passes by. This is expected to cause MVFR lake clouds to develop south of the lakes through Wednesday morning. Confidence is highest in impacts to cigs at KIAG and KROC, and comparatively lower at KBUF and KJHW. Widespread VFR is expected to return by Wednesday afternoon as drier air advects in from the north, eroding the deck of lower lake clouds. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with rain showers likely. Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of a shower. && .MARINE... Exiting deep low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes, along with the approach of an elongated area of surface high pressure will bring a period of light northerly winds tonight through Wednesday night. The next chance for small craft conditions will be Friday and into Friday night in conjunction with a cold front passage. Highest waves will be found in central and eastern waters of Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...PP/Thomas SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...PP MARINE...PP/Thomas