218
FXUS61 KBUF 021026
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
626 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will provide our area with fair dry weather and
lower humidity today...then another weak cold front will bring our
next chance of showers and thunderstorms as it pushes across the
area tonight and Thursday. Another...somewhat stronger area of high
pressure will then bring dry and comfortable weather for Thursday
night and Independence Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface-based ridging extending from the Ohio Valley
northeastward across New York State will provide our area with
a fair and dry day today...with plentiful sunshine through the
first part of the afternoon giving way to a modest NW-SE
increase in mid and high clouds late out ahead of the next weak
cold front. 850 mb temps of +13C to +15C should support highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s...along with humidity levels (Td`s
in the upper 50s/lower 60s) that will be much more comfortable
than the preceding couple of days.

Tonight upper-level troughing will dig southeastward across Ontario
and Quebec...and in the process will slowly pivot its attendant weak
cold front into our region. Forcing both from the front and height
falls aloft will interact with a modest increase in moisture and
some weak to modest instability to lead to a slowly increasing
potential for some widely scattered to scattered showers and
thunderstorms...primarily for sites from the Finger Lakes westward.
Otherwise lows should be similar to those of the night before (upper
50s-mid 60s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The center of a mid/upper level closed low will slowly drift
southeast from central Quebec Thursday morning to the southern
Canadian Maritimes by late Friday night. This will force a cold
front southward through the eastern Great Lakes during the day
Thursday, with the parent trough axis shifting into central NY by
Thursday evening. Some measure of remnant convection leftover from
Wednesday night ahead of the front will likely persist into Thursday
morning, though the primary concern for widely scattered but more
robust convection Thursday will be late morning through early
afternoon. Ensemble probabilities show a 60-70% chc of >1000J/kg of
SBCAPE building from the interior S. Tier up through the S. Tug Hill
region during this time as stronger NW`erly flow aloft and
steepening mid-level lapse rates on the backside of the trough
encroach on the region. This said, given the timing of the front and
forcing from the trough, greater coverage and threat of stronger
storms may ultimately lie further south and east of our CWA.

While confidence in overall convective evolution Thursday remains
low, by mid to late afternoon much of WNY and the northern Finger
Lakes region is expected to be mainly dry with seasonable temps and
lowering Td`s. This trend will inevitably extend to the rest of the
region by Thursday night as a flattening mid-level ridge over the
Mississippi Valley expands east into New England. Cooler, quieter
weather with light winds will then last right through the 4th of
July before southerly return flow gives temps a boost on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak ripples of shortwave energy will drift east across Canada
through the first half of next week as quasi-zonal flow remains in
place across much of the northern tier of the CONUS. Broad scale
ridging further south will at the same time become increasingly
amplified, particularly across the Four Corners region. Offshore
anticyclonic flow will cause the warmer, more humid southern airmass
to advect into the region early next week while the incoming
shortwave energy reintroduces shower and thunderstorm chances to the
forecast. Temps are expected to peak Sunday with highs near or above
90F likely across the lower terrain areas, with some areas
potentially reaching low-end Advisory criteria, though confidence is
low as Tds remain more uncertain at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the exception of some IFR/MVFR in patchy valley fog across the
southern Tier early this morning...fair dry VFR weather will
predominate today. While winds will also mainly be light (i.e. on
the order of 10 knots or less)...portions of the Niagara Frontier
may well see a period of modestly breezy conditions (sustained winds
of 10-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots) this afternoon.

Tonight the area of high pressure responsible for today`s fair
weather will slide off to our east...while giving way to a weak cold
front that will push into our region from the northwest. The front
will bring an increase in cloud cover...along with a slowly
increasing potential for some widely scattered to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. While flight conditions will remain predominantly
VFR...some brief/localized reductions will be possible within any
showers/storms.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
associated brief restrictions...with the latter coming mainly
between the morning and early afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
late in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley to New York
State will maintain a modest southwesterly flow and light chop
across the Lower Great Lakes today...with winds then turning more
westerly tonight and Thursday (with a light chop continuing)
following the passage of a weak cold front. High pressure will then
build across the Lower Lakes Region Thursday night and Friday...with
generally light winds and minimal waves expected for the
Independence Day holiday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR