264
FXUS61 KBUF 062355
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow showers will continue east and southeast of the
Lakes overnight. A low pressure system will bring widespread
light accumulating snows Sunday into Sunday evening. High
pressure will build east Monday, with dry weather expected
across the Lower Lakes through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move across western and north central NY
tonight. Given marginal cooling aloft ( H850 T`s -7C to -9C)
and the lack deep moisture extending through the DGZ we will
likely only see light snow and/or drizzle/freezing drizzle.
Little to no accumulation is expected east of Lake Erie.
Westerly flow along the long axis of Lake Ontario will support
a better lake response, however only one to three inches are
possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Otherwise...attention turns to a weak low approaching the Lower
Lakes which will bring light accumulating snows Sunday into
Sunday evening. Again, not a significant event by any means but
we might see a general widespread snowfall of 1-3", with up to
4" in spots.

High pressure will begin to build in from the west Sunday night with
drier weather taking hold as we move into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of Sunday`s system...lingering cold northerly upslope
flow and low level moisture intersecting the dendritic snow growth
zone will help to keep some flurries/scattered light snow showers
going south of the lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) Monday
morning...before these diminish Monday afternoon as the 850 mb ridge
axis finally builds across our region. Otherwise Monday will easily
feature our coldest daytime highs of the young winter season so
far...with max temps only expected to range from the upper teens
across the North Country and higher terrain south of Lake Ontario to
the lower 20s elsewhere. Good radiational cooling under lingering
surface based ridging will then allow readings to tumble into the
single digits to around 10 above south of Lake Ontario and to below
zero across portions of the North Country Monday evening...with
temps then slowly rising from west to east overnight as a southerly
return flow develops on the backside of the departing ridge.

On Tuesday the low level ridge will slide off the Atlantic
coastline...while yet another fast-moving shortwave trough and
modest surface low make their way from the Upper Great Lakes to
southern Ontario...with the latter feature pushing a trailing warm
front into our area in the process. Isentropic upglide/DCVA and
increasing moisture out ahead of these features will help to
generate scattered to numerous snow showers across the area between
late Tuesday morning and especially Tuesday afternoon...with pcpn
chances highest near the Canadian border and lowest across interior
portions of the Finger Lakes. Accums from these still look to be
light and on the order of an inch or less in most places...with
perhaps up to 2 inches east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise the warm
advection pattern will result in high temps climbing back into the
lower to mid 30s...though it will feel colder owing to an increasing
southerly wind that will gust to 25-35 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
continuing to cross our region...with Tuesday`s weak system quickly
being followed by another...stronger surface low Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with a couple more systems then following between Friday
and Saturday.

Diving more into the details...the snow showers from Tuesday`s
surface low/warm front will barely have a chance to exit our area
Tuesday evening...before more widespread pcpn associated with the
next surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The 12z operational runs of the GEM/GFS/ECWMF have
converged a little more on the track of this next system and
generally now take it somewhere between a southern Georgian Bay-
Ottawa Valley axis and Lake Ontario...though it remains to be seen
whether this better consistency will last given both the still-
somewhat distant time frame and differences in track seen up through
last night. The exact track of the low will heavily influence just
how much of a warmup (and consequently the pcpn types) we`ll
see...as well as the potential for any stronger winds. A more
northern track would allow for a stronger warmup and more of a
changeover to plain rain for a time on Wednesday along with a
greater chance of stronger winds...while a more southerly track
would support colder temps/more snow and a lower wind potential. For
now have continued to lean toward recent trends/continuity...which
suggest snow Tuesday night changing to a mix of mainly lower
elevation rain and higher elevation rain/snow during Wednesday.

In the wake of this system...a shot of colder air should then change
any lingering pcpn back to snow and bring at least some limited lake
effect snow potential to areas downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The next surface low then looks to pass by to
our south Friday while bringing the chance of a more general
snowfall...with even colder air and another weak system then
forecast to arrive for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weakly forced cold front will move across the region tonight.
A westerly flow will support a weak lake response east of both
lakes. Light lake enhanced snow showers will continue across
the Tug Hill region this evening, then drop south towards the
southern Lake Ontario shoreline overnight. A weaker lake
response is across Lake Erie where light snow has mixed with
drizzle or freezing drizzle.

Mostly MVFR flight conditions are expected east of the Lakes,
with IFR across the higher terrain (KJHW/KOLE.) VFR conditions
are expected across the lower elevations including KIAG/KBUF/ROC
and KART tonight.

The next system will move across the region Sunday. A light
widespread snow will spread across the region Sunday morning,
then lake enhancement along the cold front will support heavier
snow east of the Lakes. Widespread MVFR/IFR is expected Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the lakes this evening and bring a
brief period of Small Craft conditions to the lakes. Winds will
subside this evening and tonight but will then gradually
strengthen again on Sunday. A weak low passing through the Lower
Lakes Sunday will `likely` once again produce low end Small
Craft conditions on the lakes through Sunday evening.

High pressure builds east late Sunday night into  Monday across the
lakes, with lighter winds and diminishing wave action.

Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower
LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower
Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time
period for these stronger winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...AR/HSK/Thomas