Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
022 FXUS61 KBUF 041754 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area today...resulting in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions for the Independence Day holiday. The high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...with a southwesterly flow on its backside allowing heat and humidity levels to build again...though mainly dry weather will continue through Sunday. A cold front will then slowly move south across the region and bring renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure crossing the region will continue to support dry weather today with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity levels and seasonable temperatures. A few fair weather cumulus clouds will be possible with the afternoon heating. Winds will be light across the area, with some slightly higher winds near the lakes. Tonight, continued fair weather as the sfc high centers over eastern NY. Some high clouds will start to push into the area ahead of the next warm front. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Thursday nights values with the sfc high pushing east and weak warm air advection starting. Overnight lows will range from near 60 for WNY to the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Saturday, a weak warm front will track northeast across the forecast area through the day. As the front pushes northeast and both weak synoptic forcing and instability increases, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with the greatest potential across the western Southern Tier, but a shower/storm can`t be ruled out for most of the forecast area. Clouds will increase some, but plenty of breaks in the coverage expected. Winds are expected to remain at or below 10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The heat and humidity will continue make a return Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of a flattening mid-level ridge slides east across the Northeast, while multiple partially phasing shortwave troughs ripple across the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Associated surface high pressure with the aforementioned ridge will support dry weather to prevail. As alluded to previously, 850 mb temperatures will warm to around +20C Sunday, resulting in surface high temperatures well into the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few mid 90s possible across the warmer spots of the Genesee Valleys. Cooler temperatures will lie along the shorelines of both lakes and a few miles inland due to the lake breeze. With humidity levels creeping up, a few locations across Livingston and Ontario county may reach Heat Advisory criteria for a few hours. Due to the phasing of the multiple shortwave troughs passing east across the Great Lakes Sunday through Monday, a surface cold front will slide from northwest to southeast Monday. As the day progresses, a ribbon of moisture will set up across southcentral New York, supporting showers and thunderstorms to blossom on the southeastern fringes of the forecast area (i.e. the Finger Lakes region) Monday afternoon. Similar to the front that passed through yesterday (July 3) afternoon, a few scattered rain showers will be possible Monday morning before diurnal effects support showers and storms to blossom by the afternoon. General broad troughing will then set up across the area Monday night, supporting cooler and drier air to advect into the area, supporting conditions to dry out and be favorable sleeping conditions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad troughing set up across the Great Lakes Tuesday through Friday will allow for a few shortwave passages throughout the rest of the work week before pulling the pattern east by Friday night. With each shortwave passage expect increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. This being said, the whole week won`t be a wash out as plenty of dry time will ensue between shortwave passages. There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing and location of the shortwave later in the week and therefore the extent of any diurnally convection along with it. Will have to keep an eye on it as it gets closer. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal for the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions through tonight as high pressure pushes across the region. Some increasing clouds expected overnight, but expected to remain at/above 20k ft. Saturday, mostly VFR conditions persist. Some mid-level clouds along with a few showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon, mainly for the western Southern Tier, including at JHW. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR. Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will settle directly across the Lower Lakes region today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in light to modest winds and minimal wave action across the lakes for the Independence Day holiday. The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...SW MARINE...JJR