Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
214 FXUS61 KBUF 041028 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 628 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area today...resulting in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions for the Independence Day holiday. The high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...with a southwesterly flow on its backside allowing heat and humidity levels to build again...though mainly dry weather will continue through Sunday. A cold front will then slowly move south across the region and bring renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface-based ridging sprawled from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will settle directly across our area today...while heights aloft also will rebound some in the wake of Thursday`s system. This will result in simply spectacular weather for our nation`s birthday featuring plentiful sunshine...light winds...and comfortable temperatures/humidity levels...with 850 mb temps of +9C to +13C supporting highs in the mid-upper 70s...and surface Td`s only running in the lower-mid 50s. The axis of the surface ridge will then slowly drift southeastward to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight...allowing for continued fair/dry and comfortable weather. Expect temperatures to primarily range through the 60s by the start time of any evening fireworks displays...with overnight lows then ranging from the lower 60s near Lake Erie to the lower/mid 50s across the interior of the Southern Tier and North Country. Enjoy! && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The axis of a flattening mid-level ridge will shift from the Ohio Valley Saturday to off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Concurrently, several partially phasing shortwaves will ripple across Ontario and Quebec, sending a wave of sfc low pressure and associated cold front SE into the Great Lakes region. An area of sfc high pressure ahead of the ridge aloft will move eastward in tandem, becoming well offshore by Saturday evening. In all this will cause mainly dry weather to prevail, albeit with increasing summer heat. While Saturday will be quite warm in most areas, 850H temps climbing to around +20C on Sunday will cause widespread sfc high temps in the low 90s across the Lake Plains, potentially even mid 90s in the Genesee Valley. Given Tds rising into the upper 60s and low 70s, counties mainly bordering the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and Livingston County will likely have pockets that meet Heat Advisory criteria Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, there looks to be two potential exceptions to the prevailing dry weather this period. The first will be Saturday afternoon in the western Southern Tier as a plume of deeper moisture advects over a region of localized lake breeze convergence, possibly causing a few pop-up showers or tstorms (~20% chc). The second is Sunday night as the aforementioned cold front nears the region, though chances remain low (15-25%) given the unfavorable diurnal timing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A couple of mid-level shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great Lakes next week, with the first being right at the start the period Monday and the second coming sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday. These will correspondingly bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region, though temperatures are expected to average near seasonable levels through much of the week. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing of the second shortwave and the extent of any diurnally driven convection preceding it, though a period of drier weather is expected later Monday night through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some limited patchy fog developed within the river valleys of the Southern Tier overnight...however this (and any associated restrictions) will mix out rather quickly early this morning. Otherwise...sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will settle directly overhead today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in VFR conditions prevailing through tonight...with mainly clear skies today followed by a modest increase in mid and high cloud cover later on tonight. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday...Largely VFR, with just an outside chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two across the Southern Tier Saturday afternoon. Sunday night and Monday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Sprawling high pressure draped from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley will settle directly across the Lower Lakes region today...with its axis then slowly drifting to eastern New York and Pennsylvania tonight. This will result in light to modest winds and minimal wave action across the lakes for the Independence Day holiday. The surface high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend...while a slow-moving cold frontal boundary edges southward across Ontario and Quebec. The tightening pressure gradient in between these two systems will result in winds turning more southwesterly and gradually increasing across the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend...though conditions are currently expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR