713
FXUS61 KBUF 112312
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
712 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at
least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

2) Cool and dry weather expected on Monday, then turning warmer
Tuesday, with the next chance for some unsettled weather arriving by
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend
with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

High pressure will keep dry weather intact through at least midday
Saturday. The surface high will move east into New England tonight,
with a southerly return flow advecting a warmer and more humid
airmass back in across western and northcentral NY from southwest to
northeast through the day Saturday. A more humid airmass in
combination with daytime heating may lead to some scattered
diurnally driven convection across western NY Saturday afternoon.
The highest probability for showers and a few storms during the
afternoon hours will be across the interior Southern Tier where the
best moisture will overlap with somewhat better forcing closer to a
mid level trough passing by just to our southeast. Chances for
scattered showers and isolated storms will then spread from
southwest to northeast across the remainder of the area from late
Saturday afternoon through the first half of Saturday night.

Timing of a cold frontal passage on Sunday remains somewhat in
question, with the overall consensus still advertising quite a wide
window, with a frontal passage sometime mid morning to late
afternoon Sunday. This will bring the next chance for another round
of showers and scattered storms along and ahead of the front.
Deepest moisture will exit east prior to the arrival of the front,
however 0-6 km shear profiles increasing to 30-35 knots along the
boundary combined with building diurnal instability may be enough to
trigger some showers and storms, of which a few isolated stronger
storms may have the capability to produce some gusty winds. This
will mainly hinge on frontal timing when it comes to better pinning
down a more specific area of interest. This has led to the SPC
issuing a fairly large Day 3 Marginal Risk stretching from portions
of the Ohio Valley to western New England owed to the frontal timing
and other convective elements still being in question. We will be
entering the higher resolution model window over the next 24 hours,
which should help start to make things a bit more clear.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool and dry weather expected on Monday, then
turning warmer Tuesday, with the next chance for some unsettled
weather arriving by midweek.

Fast-moving pattern will continue next week with an area of Canadian
surface high pressure bringing dry, but very cool conditions to
start off the new work week. Will likely see some lake clouds
southeast of the lakes Monday morning, with potentially a few lake
enhanced rain showers as well with sharp mid and upper level passing
overhead. Some guidance has 850 mb temps bottoming out around +3C to
+5C. The high will then quickly shift east with a strengthening
southerly return flow quickly boosting chilly Tuesday morning lows
back above average by afternoon with mainly dry weather anticipated.
Unsettled weather is then expected to return, with the potential for
a frontal system to stall out near or over our region, bringing the
potential for periodic rounds of showers and storms by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aloft, an E`ward-moving high pressure ridge traverses our
region through ~12Z/Sat. Thereafter, SW`erly to WSW`erly flow
and embedded disturbances affect Western and Central NY through
00Z/Sun. At the surface, the ridge exits E`ward and allows a
warm front to sweep N`ward through Western and Central NY
between ~12Z/Sat and ~17Z/Sat. Light and variable regional
surface winds this evening become SE`erly to SSE`erly around 5
to 10 knots Sat morning. Behind the warm front, S`erly to
SW`erly winds around 10 to 15 knots are expected.

Primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through the TAF
period. However, isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with the aforementioned disturbances
should overspread our region generally from the southwest and
blossom over our area after 15Z/Sat and especially 18Z/Sat,
mainly southeast of a roughly KIAG to KART line.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions
expected.

Sunday night through Monday night...Mainly dry weather and VFR
expected. However, scattered lake-effect clouds and isolated
showers with MVFR are possible generally southeast and then
south of the eastern Great Lakes, especially between KROC and
KSYR, overnight Sunday night into Monday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon, then shift east into New England tonight, providing
mainly light winds with little to no wave action through tonight.
Southerly flow will slowly increase Saturday, generally 10-12 knots
or below, but up to 15 knots across eastern Lake America. A brief
period of marginal SCA conditions will be possible across far
eastern Lake America Saturday evening into the first half of the
overnight.

Flow will veer southwesterly, then westerly ahead of an approaching
cold front on Sunday with 10-15 knot winds producing increasingly
choppy conditions on both lakes, before winds freshen out of the
west and northwest in the wake of the cold frontal passage bringing
the potential for a period lower-end SCA conditions Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...77