875
FXUS61 KBUF 182210
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
610 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through
Tuesday. The potential for at least some showers and thunderstorms
will increase mid week, as a weak surface wave passes through
the region. Dry weather will return late in the week as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight,
although there will be some increase in higher level clouds.
Overnight lows dropping into the 50s, with some 40s for the North
Country and interior portions of the Southern Tier.

High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain
dry weather through Tuesday, although there may be a few showers
that may move into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a
mid level trough approaches the region. The flow coming around
to a more southerly direction will bring an uptick in
temperatures with most highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Incoming mid level trough and surface wave will increase rain
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. Improving moisture axis along
with an inverted surface trough setting up across the area will lead
to at least some scattered showers during this time frame.
Thunderstorm chances look muted, but can not rule out some isolated
thunderstorms, mainly during peak heating Wednesday afternoon.
Overall, rainfall amounts look on the lighter side, basin averages
generally a quarter inch or less.

A trough axis near the region will maintain low chances of
showers Wednesday night. Mid level ridge building across the
eastern Great Lakes will bring drier weather Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes
through Friday night, maintaining fair weather. This ridge will
break down over the weekend as a large Canadian low pressure system
sends a cold front through the region, bringing the risk for
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Confidence in overall
timing is low, but the greatest coverage looks to be Saturday
night and Sunday.

Temperatures will be the warmest early in the period with widespread
daytime readings in the 80s, with a notable cool down behind the
front, with highs by Monday 65 to 75. 850 mb temperatures may
get cool enough to support some west or northwest flow lake
response.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will continue through the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus have
already dissipated late this afternoon with a plethora of dry air in
place, although some cirrus will continue to spill in from the upper
Great Lakes. Winds will remain northeast to east at 5 to 15 knots,
with some gusts to 20 knots possible through around sunset,
highest closer to Lake Ontario. High clouds are expected to
continue to increase tonight. Winds will lighten and veer to
southeast late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...VFR with scattered showers possible across far
western NY late.

Tuesday night...MVFR. Isolated to scattered showers. Isolated
thunderstorms possible.

Wednesday...Localized cig/vsby restrictions possible especially
early in the day, otherwise mainly VFR with decreasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria on
Lake Ontario, thus any remaining headlines have been allowed to
expire. However, elevated northeasterlies will continue through the
first half of tonight on both lakes, keeping choppy conditions in
place. Winds will then veer to an offshore southeasterly component
later tonight into Tuesday as high pressure passes across central
Quebec, although winds will become more easterly on Lake Ontario
Tuesday afternoon. This will keep higher waves mainly
directed toward Canadian waters during this time frame.

A weak low passes through the region during the mid week period with
a general weak gradient, resulting in lake breeze circulations.

Conditions on the Lower Great Lakes could become choppy again by
Thursday as a northeast flow redevelops, but confidence on the
strength of the flow is low.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA