966
FXUS61 KBUF 091753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Canadian high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes
today will slide towards New England Friday, resulting in dry cool
weather to prevail. Speaking of the cool weathre, widespread front
will be possible tonight into Friday morning, as temperatures across
the typical inland locations drop below freezing tonight. Mainly dry
weather will persist Saturday. A chance of showers will arrive late
Saturday and last through Monday as a mid-level low approaches from
the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather with only a few lake effect/upslope clouds (south
of Lake Ontario) this afternoon as high pressure slides east
overhead of New York State through tonight.

Clear skies and light winds beneath the aforementioned surface high
will support efficient radiational cooling. However, due to the fact
the surface high will be drifting east into New England tonight,
surface winds won`t go completely calm in most areas, inhibiting the
full potential of frost/freeze potential. Despite this, still expect
widespread frost overnight, as temperatures fall below freezing
across the typically colder locations of the Southern Tier and
eastern Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will continue to advect east into New England
Friday, supporting dry weather to prevail. Unlike today, with the
surface high now to the east of the region, the area will be under a
warm air advection regime, supporting temperatures to modulate into
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure over New England Friday night through Saturday
will likely support dry weather to prevail. However, a compact
shortwave trough diving southeast across the Great Lakes may
introduce a few showers across far western New York Friday night
through Saturday. Additionally, warm air advection will continue
Friday night through Saturday. This being said, Friday night`s lows
will range in the 40s limiting frost potential. With Saturday`s
highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday will have a medium chance (35-55%) of rain showers, mainly
across western NY. This has been trending upward over the past few
days as model uncertainty continues to shrink with the presence of a
compact, closed upper low across Lake Erie as well as a surface low
moving up the Carolina coast. Most model and ensemble guidance now
shows the presence of the low dropping out of the polar jet to the
north, but continue to have placement inconsistencies that will need
to be monitored.

Headed into Sunday night, precipitation chances will begin to focus
farther east into the Finger Lakes region and east of Lake Ontario
as the coastal low with a deep layer of easterly/southeasterly
isentropic lift spreading farther north. While forecast QPF through
Monday morning is below 0.5" for most locations, probability of
exceedence thresholds continue to increase over the past few model
cycles based on NBM output. Additionally, interactions between the
two lows may lead to this system lingering around a little longer
into early next week with the chance of light precipitation
continuing into early Tuesday.

Generally, drier weather expected for the middle of next week as a
broad upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS. However, a
cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon may lead to lake shower
development off of Lake Ontario later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cool northerly flow off of Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon
continues to produce areas of lake effect/upslope clouds south of
the lakes. Despite the cloud cover (with bases around 5k feet) VFR
conditions prevail across all TAF sites. In fact, expect VFR
conditions to persist tonight and last through Friday as surface
high pressure overhead this afternoon drifts east into New England.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northerlies from earlier in the day have begun to subside
as surface high pressure builds east towards the region this
afternoon. The surface high will then continue east tonight through
Friday, allowing for winds to relax overhead and conditions to
remain below small craft thresholds.

With the close proximity of the surface high this weekend,
conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019-085.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ006>008-020-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ