705
FXUS61 KBUF 251728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
128 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms this
weekend.

2) More unsettled weather will return Monday and Tuesday with
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

3) A few more showers/storms linger into Wednesday, otherwise
turning drier through the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Seasonably warm with a few spotty showers and
thunderstorms this weekend.

Surface high pressure near the Canadian Maritimes extends westward
along the New England coastline today. An axis of moisture within an
area of convergence extends from the Mid-Atlantic region into
western NY this afternoon. A mid-level trough will move across the
region through tonight, and the axis of moisture will move eastward
across the forecast area. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions and a
few showers and thunderstorms are possible along and inland from the
Lake Erie lakebreeze this afternoon. Decreasing chances for showers
and cloud coverage will move eastward across the Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region through early this evening.

As clouds move east of the region, clearing is expected across the
western Southern Tier tonight. Patchy fog is possible and result in
low visibility late tonight into Sunday morning.

Increasing moisture will move into the eastern Great Lakes region
ahead of the next shortwave trough Sunday. Daytime heating and lake
breeze and terrain circulations will support a chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms inland from the Lakes Sunday afternoon
through early evening. Hi-res guidance suggest an area of numerous
showers and thunderstorms from the Toronto Metro to the Niagara
Peninsula in the afternoon which may move into the Buffalo/Niagara
Falls Metro Sunday evening.

Daytime highs will reach the low to mid 80s today and Sunday and
overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight and Sunday night.

Key Message 2...More unsettled weather will return Monday and
Tuesday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

A large upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the southern
Rockies Monday and Tuesday. Downstream...a broad longwave trough
will also remain in place from eastern Canada to the Great Lakes/New
England...while being reinforced by several shortwave impulses
riding around the top of the ridge and then dropping through the
mean northwesterly flow aloft. As these latter features cross our
region and interact with our seasonably warm and increasingly more
humid airmass...we should experience increasingly unsettled weather
featuring periodic rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Coupled with diurnal heating/destabilization...an initial shortwave
impulse crossing our region should lead to an increasing likelihood
of some showers and scattered storms inland from the lakes during
Monday afternoon...particularly across our central and eastern zones
where available moisture should be a bit deeper and forcing from the
shortwave looks to be maximized. Meanwhile a relative minimum in
convective coverage should lie northeast of Lake Erie...where a
stabilizing southwesterly flow off that lake looks to be in place.
With respect to severe potential on Monday...at this point this
appears fairly limited given the weak low-mid level flow and
consequently fairly weak shear in place across much of the region...
meaning that localized heavier downpours may actually be the main
concern instead given the weak flow and PWATs of up around 1.5
inches. This being said...deep-layer shear is a bit stronger (25-30
knots) across the western Southern Tier...so can`t completely rule
out a couple of stronger storms there.

Increasingly more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
then look to arrive Monday night (mainly later on in the night) and
Tuesday as another...stronger shortwave impulse and associated
surface wave drop southeastward across the Great Lakes and across
our region...though the exact track/timing of these features still
remain in question at this juncture. The latest suite of guidance
continues to suggest that the best overall convective coverage
should come during Tuesday afternoon/evening in tandem with diurnal
heating/destabilization...though available shear again looks to be
largely weak and unsupportive of an organized severe risk. This
said...the one exception to this could again be across the Southern
Tier... which will lie along the northeastern edge of faster flow/
better shear sliding across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...and where
a few stronger storms can once again not be completely ruled out.
Otherwise PWATs will remain around or a little above 1.5 inches
during this time frame...which should lead to a continued potential
for locally heavy downpours.

Key Message 3...A few more showers/storms linger into Wednesday,
otherwise turning drier through the end of the work week.

Following the passage of the Tuesday system...lingering large-scale
troughing across our region and daytime heating underneath its
attendant cool pool aloft should lead to another round of diurnally-
driven convection developing inland from the lakes during Wednesday.
Given notably weaker instability compared to the previous couple of
days...most of this should be in the form of scattered to briefly
more numerous showers...along with a few widely scattered
thunderstorms. After that things should generally trend drier
through the end of the week as the upper trough de-amplifies and
lifts northeastward into Atlantic Canada...and surface high
pressure/drier air settles across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low end VFR to MVFR conditions will continue across far western NY
today. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere. A few spotty showers
scattered and thunderstorms are possible across western NY this
afternoon, with a low chance of reaching KJHW/KROC. Confidence
remains low for the other terminals.

Convection will weaken through the evening hours and mostly dry
weather is expected through Sunday morning. Fog may develop across
the Southern Tier in the late overnight hours.

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible inland from the Lakes
Sunday afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions expected.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a low chance for showers/thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and gentle waves will continue on the Lakes through the
beginning of next week.

Southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday, with
choppy waters developing on the northeast ends of the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK