Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
064 FXUS61 KBUF 111006 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 606 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot day to start the work week with tolerable levels of summer humidity. Ahead of a cold front humidity will begin to increase tomorrow, such that dangerous levels of heat index values may be reached across the Lake Plain, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains in place with a mid level ridge only slightly displaced to the east today. Sunny and very warm weather with highs 85 to 90, warmest for the lake plains. Tolerable humidity levels, so heat indices will likely remain near actual air temperatures. Clear and calm conditions persist tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Blocking pattern begins to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure shifts to the east, and a mid level trough and cold front swing through the eastern Great Lakes. Before the arrival of trough and cold front, another very warm day is expected Tuesday. An uptick in humidity levels will support heat indices in the lower to mid 90s, warmest across the lake plains south of Lake Ontario and the Genesee Valley. Isolated thunderstorms possible along lake breeze boundaries during peak heating. The trough and cold front push into the region through Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Moisture is plentiful as PW values approaching 2 inches, supporting tropical downpours. Overall shear profiles are weak, limiting the severe threat. Continued humid Wednesday, but temperatures not as warm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A trough will exit the Northeast Thursday, resulting in a cooler air mass to remain overhead and lingering moisture and lift to lie across the New York-Pennsylvania state border, thus supporting a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Brief ridging will then slide across the area late in the week and into the start of the weekend ahead of the next trough. Long range guidance continues to have some discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of the trough, however compared to previous runs, a drier solution looks to be setting up. This being said, after a couple of days of dry weather Friday and Saturday, the next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Diurnal lake breezes this afternoon and 5K cumulus bases inland from these lake breeze circulations. A lake breeze will pass across KROC airfield this afternoon, likely between 3 and 5 pm with winds shifting from SW to NW. A steady, dry southerly flow within the boundary layer should keep any valley fog from expanding across KJHW airfield tonight. Outlook... Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower across far western terminals in the afternoon. Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms and associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain anchored along the east coast today with light winds and local lake breeze circulations on the Lakes. Light winds will yield minimal wave heights through tomorrow. A cold front will pass across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots both ahead (Southwest) and behind (West) the frontal passage, which would give a light chop to the waters. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas