Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
276 FXUS61 KBUF 140645 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and more comfortable conditions return today behind an earlier passing cold front. Temperatures will warm through the start of the weekend before another cold front and chance for showers moves into the region for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Earlier showers have mostly dissipated and/or moved out of the forecast area, but a quick shower or sprinkle can`t be ruled out for the next few hours as the cold front clears through the rest of the area. Areas of fog have developed across portions of WNY mainly over the higher terrain south of Lake Ontario as winds shift to the north. Today, mainly dry with partly to mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds into eastern Canada, extending south across the Eastern Great Lakes. Any lingering morning fog should burn off by 9am. Fair weather cumulus clouds will be possible inland from the lakes with daytime heating. An isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out inland from the lakes as a weak shortwave trough passes over the region. Otherwise a less humid day with temperatures a bit cooler than earlier in the week, but still above normal for most areas. Afternoon highs today will reach the low to upper 80s, with a few spots in the upper 70s across the higher terrain. Northerly winds should remain below 10 MPH for most locations. Tonight, dry conditions continue with high pressure to the north. Light winds and clearing skies will result in a cool comfortable night with lows from near 50 to near 60 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. Valley fog will be possible for portions of the western Southern Tier. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure over Quebec Friday morning will move to the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. This dry airmass will extend south across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast, bringing dry and warm weather for the end of the week. Daytime highs will reach the mid to upper 80s, with low humidity. Dry weather will continue Friday night, however it will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday night. An upper level trough near James Bay will move south-southeast across eastern Canada Saturday through Saturday night. A return flow off the Atlantic will usher in moisture into portions of the eastern Great Lakes region, mainly interior parts. Moisture and daytime heating will support a shower or two across far interior portions of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into the evening. There are some signals that upstream showers and storms Saturday may move into the forecast area Saturday night. There is low confidence as timing and location of these convective features are still uncertain. Warmer Saturday with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid-level pattern becomes amplified across Canada with a mid- level trough digging across eastern Canada and a building ridge across the Canadian Plains for the end of the weekend. A cold front will be near the forecast area Sunday with a modest plume of moisture along this feature. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with a medium chance (40-55%) Sunday afternoon. As the trough digs further southeast, the front will move across the forecast area. While there is uncertainty in the timing of the front, dryer and cooler conditions will likely arrive across western and north-central NY for the start of the next work week. Daytime highs will average in the mid to upper 70s Monday and Tuesday. Uncertainty in precipitation increases Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential of a shortwave trough digging across the Great Lakes region. Kept low chances for showers and storms through mid-week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions across the forecast area, though some fog and lower cigs have developed across portions of the western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Reductions at JHW have caused highly variable VSBY and CIG conditions so far early this morning with fluctuations from LIFR to VFR at times. Current satellite is showing an area of fog/low stratus slowly shifting south across the western Southern Tier with the front, while at the same time, valley fog is also developing nearby where the sky is clearing. Areas of fog east of Lake Ontario should remain mostly east of KART, but brief reductions to MVFR VSBY can`t be ruled out. Today, mainly VFR conditions across the forecast area, some early morning fog will continue a few hours of lower flight cats, mainly for areas near JHW. Afternoon fair weather cumulus is expected and an isolated shower or two will be possible with a weak shortwave trough crossing the region. North to northeast winds will generally remain at 10 kts or lower. Tonight, mainly VFR conditions across the area. Some areas of valley fog may cause some reductions at/near JHW. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog and local IFR possible across the Southern Tier each late night and early morning. Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated brief/local CIG/VSBY restrictions. && .MARINE... Winds have shifted to the north to northwest this morning behind a passing cold front resulting in a light to moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northeast today, and continue in the 10-15 knot range on Lake Ontario with a moderate chop. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...SW MARINE...Hitchcock