270
FXUS61 KBUF 070202
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal zone stalled out just south of our area will gradually
slip further southward tonight and Saturday...with any lingering
showers along and just north of this boundary diminishing
overnight...though some areas of fog will redevelop across the
Southern Tier and portions of the Finger Lakes. Mainly dry and
seasonable weather will then follow for Saturday through the first
half of Sunday...before shower chances increase again Sunday
afternoon as low pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The stalled out frontal boundary over northern Pennsylvania will
gradually slip further southward overnight...and this in tandem with
nocturnal stabilization will allow for any leftover showers (mainly
across the Southern Tier) to gradually diminish from west to east
over time. This being said...plenty of low stratus will linger
overnight (particularly across the higher terrain)...and areas of
fog will likely develop again across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Saturday, low stratus and fog early will burn off with increasing
sunshine through the day. Most areas will be dry, although an
isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian surface high pressure, providing fair weather Saturday
night will shift eastward Sunday, allowing for a mid level shortwave
trough to cross the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday
night.

Not much instability ahead of this shortwave, and marginal cooling
aloft/lapse rates will not be conducive for much thunder...with the
greatest chances for a rumble of thunder across the Southern Tier.

This system will leave behind quite a bit of moisture, with a
slightly muggy Sunday night into Monday continuing the risk for a
shower...that will become more widespread Monday afternoon during
the peak heating of the day.

A cold front crossing the region Monday afternoon could spark a
thunderstorms region-wide. Increased shear ahead of the front, with
0-6km bulk shear values reaching 40 to 50 knots could allow for
thunderstorms to become strong.

Temperatures will be close to normal this period.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deepening upper level trough over the Great Lakes Tuesday
will maintain showers and thunderstorms, favored during the peak
heating of the afternoon hours. Supporting these thunderstorms
will be increased lapse rates over 7 deg/km.

Thereafter, will track a few shortwaves through a west-northwest mid
level flow that could bring a few showers or thunderstorms, but
nothing widespread for the time being to close out the remainder of
this period.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will slowly rise from the upper single
digits Celsius Wednesday to +12 to +14C Friday which will allow for
day-to-day warming with several 80 degree readings possible by
Friday for WNY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers will continue on and off for much of the period. This will
occur as a large trough develops over the Great Lakes early in the
week and lingers into the middle of the week. An area of high
pressure will build across the Ohio Valley, potentially bringing a
brief break to the showers starting Thursday.

Temperatures for the period will remain mostly within a few degrees
of normal, either warmer or cooler, depending on the day and frontal
boundaries passing across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The stalled out frontal boundary over northern Pennsylvania will
gradually slip further southward overnight...and this in tandem with
nocturnal stabilization will allow for any leftover showers (mainly
across the Southern Tier) to gradually diminish from west to east
over time.

The above being said...plenty of low stratus will still linger
across the area tonight (particularly across the higher terrain)...
and areas of fog will likely develop again across the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes. In terms of flight conditions...expect these to
deteriorate from MVFR to IFR/LIFR across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as we push through the night...with a
mix of VFR/MVFR generally prevailing elsewhere.

Saturday, areas of IFR in fog and low stratus across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes will dissipate by mid to late morning...
leaving behind VFR conditions for the balance of the day.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely later in the
afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action are expected through Saturday
night. Easterly winds will then develop and increase on Sunday ahead
of low pressure pushing across the Ohio Valley...possibly leading to
a light to moderate chop on Lakes Erie and Ontario. Winds will then
turn southwesterly for Monday and Tuesday...though at this point
conditions appear to remain below advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JJR
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR