894
FXUS61 KBUF 201022
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today with a return to dry
weather and sunshine, with near average temperatures. Low pressure
will then cross the Great Lakes region Monday through Monday night,
producing a few rounds of showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty
winds. A few showers will linger east of Lake Ontario Tuesday,
otherwise mainly dry weather will return for the rest of the area
Tuesday through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A secondary cold front will bring some clouds and scattered
light showers east of Lake Ontario early this morning, with the
showers ending by mid morning. Otherwise the rest of the area will
be dry, with lingering low clouds across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes gradually scattering out.

Surface high pressure will build from the upper Great Lakes this
morning to the lower Great Lakes by this evening. Associated dry air
and subsidence will bring a return to dry weather and sunshine
today, with nothing more than scattered diurnal cumulus inland from
the lakes and some passing high/thin cirrus. Temperatures will be
close to average for the third week in April.

Tonight, the surface high will drift east across eastern NY and into
New England. Clear skies and light winds initially will support
radiational cooling, with temperatures dropping back into the 30s in
most areas, and 20s east of Lake Ontario. Increasing southerly
return flow and warm advection overnight will allow temperatures to
begin to rise before daybreak. Warm advection and increasing
isentropic upglide will bring increasing clouds from southwest to
northeast overnight. The first of the showers associated with a warm
front will reach far Western NY around daybreak Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening low will march across the upper Great Lakes Monday while
sending its warm front across the area. As the low heads off into
Canada, it will drag the cold front through Monday night. With each
of the fronts, we will see chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms. It will also become quite breezy Monday, with gusts
up to 35 mph in the afternoon. With the aid of southerly flow we
should see temps climb into the 70s across WNY. A bit cooler east of
Lake Ontario with a mix of 60s.

High pressure builds east behind the departed low Tuesday, dry and
quite weather will then round out the rest of this period. It will
be cooler Tuesday, with a range of 50s, to low/mid 60s across the
Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region. Temps rebound nicely on
Wednesday, with mercury readings in the 60s for most locales across
WNY. Although, it will be cooler near the lakes (water temps still
in the U30s to L40s), and also east of Lake Ontario there highs will
be found in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will maintain dry weather Thursday and possible into a
portion of Friday. After that...all bets are off for a completely
dry forecast as the next trough begins to impact the Great lakes.
Have PoPs increasing Friday afternoon and into Friday night with
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence decreases for
Saturday, we might see chances for showers begin to decrease but
that will depend on the timing of the cold front. For now...have
followed fairly close to NBM PoPs. It does appear that we will see
dry and cooler weather by Sunday, with high pressure building into
the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers east of Lake Ontario will end by mid morning. Areas of
MVFR CIGS east of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will scatter out by mid morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes today. VFR
will prevail from mid morning on with nothing more than scattered
diurnal cumulus inland from the lakes and scattered cirrus level
clouds.

High pressure will drift east to New England tonight. A warm front
will approach Western NY late, with mid/high clouds thickening and
lowering from southwest to northeast overnight. The first of the
showers associated with the next system may reach far Western NY
around daybreak Monday.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds on Lake Ontario will continue to gradually diminish
today, with very choppy conditions this morning improving through
the afternoon. A brief period of light winds this evening will give
way to increasing easterlies overnight, especially on Lake Ontario.
This will produce very choppy conditions at a minimum, with a chance
of Small Craft Advisory conditions on the western end of the lake.

Winds will become southerly on Monday following the passage of a
warm front, then quickly swing around to southwest Monday evening
with the passage of a cold front. Moderate southwesterlies will
bring another around of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario late Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock