466
FXUS61 KBUF 161013
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
613 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures today and Friday due to presence of Canadian
wildfire smoke.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada is
expected to impact our region through at least tonight, and may
linger into Friday.

2) Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances of showers
and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Smoke from active wildfires across south-central
Canada is expected to impact our region through at least tonight,
and may linger into Friday.

A west-northwest flow aloft will continue to support a considerable
amount of smoke from Canadian wildfires across the eastern Great
Lakes region through tonight, possibly lingering across the region
Friday. Hazy skies are expected with reduced visibility at times due
to the smoke. Surface high pressure will move across the Great Lakes
region through Friday. This will maintain dry weather across the
forecast area. The HRRR model and RRFS show vertically integrated
smoke decreasing across north-central NY tonight indicating
improving conditions. Smoke may move back into the area Friday.

Smoke is limiting heating during the day and maximum temperatures
were knocked down 5-10 degrees today, and a few degrees Friday. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s today.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances
of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region Saturday
while a surface low deepens out ahead of it. This anomalously deep
low for July will also have anomalously high PWATs associated with
it. A deep southerly flow will advect moisture into the region and
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Saturday through
Saturday night. Increasing instability and a modest wind field
may support a few strong thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue to impact the region
through tonight. Upstream observations show visibility less than
3SM this morning. Hazy skies and intermittent periods of
MVFR/IFR due to smoke are expected at the terminals. Model
guidance shows smoke moving out of KART region for a brief
period tonight, before moving back into the region Friday.

A west-northwest wind will increase to 10-15 knots this
afternoon. Winds will become variable tonight.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR, but smoke is possible.

Friday night through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in
periodic showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly fair weather and VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A light west-northwest wind will persist on the lower Great Lakes
through tonight. Westerly winds will freshen Thursday and a short
period of Small Craft conditions is possible on the eastern end
of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon and evening.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires may result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK