802
FXUS61 KBUF 140242
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this late evening update. See discussion
below for details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers expected tonight.

2) Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning, then
trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered showers expected tonight.

A low/mid-level shortwave trough axis embedded in WNW`erly mean
flow in the 925-500 mb layer will traverse our region late this
evening through the first few predawn hours of Monday morning.
Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis will
trigger isolated to scattered rain showers, mainly light in
nature. These showers should exit our region generally from west
to east between about midnight and 3 AM EDT Monday. At the
surface, a ridge builds slowly from the Upper Midwest through
daybreak. Behind the recent cold front passage, the low- level
airmass may grow cold enough to support a brief period of
scattered and light lake effect rain showers over and generally
southeast of the eastern Great Lakes, mainly across the Genesee
Valley and western Finger Lakes, during the predawn hours of
Monday morning. Any showers that develop are expected to end
around daybreak as a much drier synoptic-scale airmass arrives,
which combined with a lowering subsidence inversion accompanying
the building surface ridge, will cause already weak lake-
induced CAPE to wane. Lows are expected to reach the mid 40`s to
mid 50`s around daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief cooldown Monday through early Tuesday morning,
then trending warmer and unsettled through the middle of the week.

A much cooler airmass will briefly settle into the eastern Great
Lakes Monday, with 850MB temps bottoming out in the +4C to +6C
range. This will only support highs in the mid to upper 60s for
lower elevations, and lower 60s for higher terrain. The cool
northwest flow will support some lake effect and upslope clouds in
the morning, but these will scatter out later in the day as dry air
and subsidence build into the region.

Surface high pressure will settle over NY and western New England
Monday night, with good radiational cooling conditions allowing for
lows to drop back into the 40s areawide. A few of the normally
colder Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region may make a run at
the upper 30s, but any patchy frost is likely to remain confined to
the coldest spots in the Adirondacks.

The high will move quickly east off the New England coast Tuesday,
with strong warm advection developing following a chilly start to
the day.

A cold front will cross the Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Wednesday, bringing the next chance of showers. The front may stall
and oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night through Thursday night, supporting
ongoing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, a trough and associated cyclonic WSW`erly to WNW`erly
flow affect our region through ~12Z/Mon. Thereafter, W`erly to
NW`erly flow is expected through 00Z/Tues as the trough exits
E`ward and a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. At the
surface, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through 00Z/Tues.
Our regional surface winds will vary between W`erly and N`erly
around 5 to 15 knots through 00Z/Tues.

Primarily VFR and dry weather are expected through the TAF
period. However, isolated to scattered and primarily light rain
showers associated with a disturbance aloft should traverse
western and central NY generally from west to east through
~07Z/Mon. Also, a much colder air mass and a period of
sufficient low-level moisture behind the recent cold front
passage will result in primarily isolated to scattered lake-
effect stratocumuli over/generally southeast of the eastern
Great Lakes, especially from 04Z/Mon through ~13Z/Mon, and may
result in periodic MVFR ceilings. These stratocumuli may produce
a few showers with brief MVFR visibility generally southeast of
Lake Ontario during the predawn hours of Monday morning. Drier
air overspreading our region from the west and north should
erode the lake-effect stratocumuli quickly after ~13Z/Mon as
lake-induced instability wanes. However, scattered diurnal
cumuli with bases near 3.5kft to 5kft AGL are expected over land
during the late morning through early evening hours on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected.
Localized MVFR to LIFR in early morning valley fog across the
Western Southern Tier are possible.

Tuesday night through Friday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move slowly east across northern Quebec tonight,
with post-frontal northwest flow producing Small Craft Advisory
conditions on portions of the lower Great Lakes. The strongest winds
and highest wave action will be found along the nearshore zones from
the Niagara River to Mexico bay in the northwest flow regime. Winds
will be somewhat lighter from Buffalo to Ripley, with winds and
waves likely staying just below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Monday through
Monday night, with winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM EDT Monday for NYZ001-002.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT Monday for NYZ003>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042-045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/Jaszka
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Hitchcock