337
FXUS61 KBUF 102311
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
711 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at
least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend
with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

A weak secondary cold front will push south through the western
Southern Tier with just the chance for a few isolated showers there
this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the region
with dry, cooler, and less humid conditions through the end of the
work week. Considerable clearing, weak or calm surface winds,
and lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should
yield patchy radiation fog inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario,
and patchy steam fog in the lake and river valleys of the
Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario
Region around daybreak Friday.

Surface high pressure will move east into New England, with a
southerly return flow advecting a warmer and more humid airmass back
in across western and north-central NY from southwest to
northeast through the day Saturday. This may lead to some
scattered diurnally driven convection across western NY Saturday
afternoon, particularly across the interior Southern Tier where
the best moisture will be, along with somewhat better forcing
closer to a mid level shortwave passing by just to our
southeast. A cold front will then cross the area sometime on
Sunday...timing is still in question. This will bring the next
best chance for a round of showers and scattered storms. At this
point wind shear and instability both appear to be modest, thus
the severe threat looks low at this time. However, if the
frontal timing comes across the area at/near peak heating, the
thunderstorm potential could be greater. Will continue to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds from the western
Great Lakes through 00Z/Fri. Our regional winds trend W`erly to
NW`erly around 5 to 10 knots before 02Z/Fri and between
~14Z/Fri and ~22Z/Fri. Light and variable or calm winds are
expected during the remainder of the TAF period. Dry weather and
primarily VFR are expected. However, considerable clearing, weak
or calm surface winds, and lingering low-level moisture from
recent rainfall should yield patchy radiation fog inland from
Lakes Erie and Ontario and patchy steam fog in the lake and
river valleys of the Western Southern Tier, including KJHW,
Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario Region, including KART,
between ~04Z/Fri and ~14Z/Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Dry weather and VFR expected.

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional showers/thunderstorms
with MVFR or worse are forecast during most of the time period,
but dry weather and VFR are likely Monday through Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Following a brief lull in the stronger winds on the lakes, winds are
beginning to freshen (W to NW 15-25 knots) on Lake Ontario ahead of
a backdoor cold front that will make southwesterly progress to
about the lower Saint Lawrence valley by this evening, before
stalling out. This will support SCAs on Lake Ontario through
late this evening, with SCAs lingering across eastern and
southeastern Lake Ontario into a portion of the overnight.

Pressure gradient and winds off the deck will weaken second half of
tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, with light winds
and negligible waves Friday through Friday night. South to southwest
flow will increase some over the weekend, however conditions are
expected to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT Friday for NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for NYZ007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043-045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/JM
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...JM