498
FXUS61 KBUF 152338
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
738 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a low chance of showers south of Lake Ontario this afternoon
and early evening with a southward moving cold front.

Lowered temperatures Thursday due to the trajectory of Canadian
wildfire smoke.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke is expected through at least Thursday night from active
wildfires in south central Canada.

2) Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chance of showers
and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Smoke is expected through at least Thursday night
from active wildfires in south central Canada.

Wildfires continuing across south central Canada into Minnesota
sending a considerable amount of smoke over the Great Lakes and
Northeast. Flow aloft will remain west-northwest the next couple
of days. Vertically integrated smoke from both the HRRR and the
RAP show that there will be periods of dense smoke through
Thursday night. Most of the smoke will remain aloft, however
surface visibility may be reduced at times with the smell of
smoke likely.

Temperatures this afternoon and Thursday will run cooler than
modeled with smoke spreading overhead, and could be as much as 10
degrees or so cooler under areas of thicker smoke.

Atmospheric flow does not change much Friday, so if the wildfires
remain at an elevated intensity, smoke may linger through Friday.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chance
of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

A trough will dig into the Northeast late Friday and into the
weekend with a broad surface low moving through. This will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorm starting late Friday,
peaking with widespread showers/storms Saturday. Most of the
activity should be through the region with a cold frontal passage by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At the surface, a high centered near the SK/MB/MN border area
will continue to extend a ridge into our region through 00Z/Fri.
However, a weak cold front should begin to sweep S`ward across
the Eastern Lake Ontario Region after ~20Z/Thurs and near the
southern shore of Lake Ontario and vicinity by 00Z/Fri. Very
isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to IFR are
possible along the front in the Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Any
shower or storm should dissipate by 00Z/Fri due to nocturnal
boundary layer stabilization.

Our regional surface winds should trend light and variable
through ~12Z/Thurs. Thereafter, surface winds should be around
5 to 10 knots and trend W`erly to NW`erly ahead of the cold
front before veering toward N`erly behind the front. Winds at
the surface and aloft will allow smoke originating from
wildfires in northern MN and northern ON to impact Western and
North-Central NY through 00Z/Fri. This rather dense smoke,
especially aloft, is expected to result in ceilings near 3kft to
6kft AGL. Surface visibility should vary between VFR and IFR in
the smoke. The greatest visibility reductions should occur late
this evening through Thursday morning, when smoke dispersion
at/near the surface should be relatively-limited.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR, but smoke is possible.

Friday night through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in
periodic showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly fair weather and VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A light west-northwest wind will persist on the lower Great Lakes
through tonight. Westerly winds will freshen Thursday and a short
period of Small Craft conditions is possible on the eastern end
of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon and evening.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires may result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...TMA