591
FXUS61 KBUF 111048
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
648 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor adjustments with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic chances for showers and storms will continue toward the
western Southern Tier through midweek, with mainly dry weather
expected for the remainder of western and north-central NY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Periodic chances for showers and storms will
continue toward the western Southern Tier through midweek, with
mainly dry weather expected for the remainder of western and north-
central NY.

A cold front sagging slowly southward across the area early this
morning will settle somewhere just south of the NY/PA state line by
late morning/midday. This will serve as the focal point for periodic
showers and thunderstorms as ill-timed convectively augmented
shortwaves/ridge riders travel southeast along or near this
boundary. Due to the close proximity of the stalled boundary to the
western Southern Tier, it is expected that this area may at least be
grazed by the northern periphery of these systems as they slide by
just to the south, bringing the potential for periodic rounds of
showers and storms through midweek. Otherwise, aside from a few
showers/storms from the Genesee Valley westward this morning, drier
air residing to the north of the stalled front over northern PA is
expected to provide mainly dry weather for the remainder of our area
through at least midday Wednesday before the next system within a
persistent northwesterly flow regime approaches from the northwest
bringing the next chance for a few showers/storms by Wednesday
afternoon.

The passage of the cold front will bring little change in our
temperatures through midweek, with highs right about where they
should be as we head toward the middle of August. However, there
will be a noticeable drop in humidity levels, making it feel more
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions are found across the area this morning.
However, a muggy airmass lingers across the TAF region, which has
resulted in VLIFR/LIFR flight conditions across the western Southern
Tier (KJHW). Expect slow improvement through the morning hours, with
a return to VFR by midday/early afternoon.

Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary is dropping south across the TAF
region this morning, and ahead of this feature a few showers and
thunderstorms have developed across far WNY as expected, lingering
through late morning/midday from around KIAG/KBUF and points
southward to the KJHW terminal.

Behind the front, a weak bubble of high pressure will bring slightly
drier air southward such that widespread VFR flight conditions are
likely through the bulk of tonight, before the possibility of low
clouds and fog again across the western Southern Tier (KJHW) later
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of periodic showers and thunderstorms
with localized MVFR or worse conditions possible.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will settle slowly southward through lower Great Lakes
region this morning, before stalling out near central Lake Erie by
around midday. An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to
remain in place through much of the work week, with no more than
mainly light to gentle breezes expected through at least Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM/Thomas
MARINE...JM