212
FXUS61 KBUF 221333
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today, and will provide
fair and dry weather until Thursday morning. A weak low
pressure system will pass by Thursday, followed by stronger low
pressure which will develop over the Midwest on Friday and
enter the region for the first part of weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region allowing for a dry
forecast for the near term period. The main weather concern for
today will be continued elevated southwest winds across the
region with the departing low to the northeast and the incoming
surface high. The resultant gradient and good mixing this
afternoon should allow for breezy conditions and some 30 to 35
mph wind gusts across the region, especially downwind of the
lakes. Otherwise, high pressure will take control of the area
and winds will diminish for tonight into Wednesday.

Temperatures across the region will generally reach the low to
mid 50s with some 60s well inland. Clearing conditions and
calming winds in a decoupling atmosphere should allow for
temperatures to fall into the 30s tonight, with cooler spots in
the typical drainage areas. As the high pressure system pushes
east for Wednesday, high temperatures will recover into the 60s
for most, except cooler in the Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain influential across the region on
Wednesday night and will continue a dry forecast for one more
period. Temperatures will be warmer than tonight with 40s for
most. For Thursday and Thursday night, a weak system will
approach from the west. The main upper level forcing for this
system will be well to the north and the system will slow as it
reaches the Lake Ontario region. Overall, not impressed with the
setup and will go with no to low PoPs and QPF and can see this
system completely fizzling with strong high pressure advancing
from the northwest. Temperatures on Thursday will generally be
in the 70s. For Friday, a strong low pressure system will
develop over the Midwest. Ahead of the system, moisture will
stream into the region and isentropic lift should allow for some
showers to develop. However, this system will be very quick to
move into the region, arriving on Friday night, and have PoPs
increasing to categorical across the area. There will be some
instability with this system to mention thunder in the forecast
for Friday night. Rain amounts currently seem to be in the half
inch to one inch range, which should be fine given the hasty
nature of this system. Temperatures should be in the 70s on
Friday before the rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure system will be quick to depart on Saturday and PoPs
will ramp down through the evening. High pressure will build
into the region for Sunday and Monday and allow for quiet, dry
weather. Highs on Saturday will be cooler in the 50s and slowly
recover through Monday, reaching the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds are scattering out quickly this morning. Stratus with
bases 2500-4000 feet will continue this trend during the day,
with widespread VFR flight conditions developing this afternoon.

Winds will be the other concern for today with southwest to
west wind gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range as the airspace is in a
tighter pressure gradient between low pressure to the northeast
and incoming high pressure with stronger flow downwind of the
lakes. Conditions will become clear tonight with a decoupling
atmosphere and expect calm winds overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later
in the afternoon.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated southwest winds remain across the region behind a cold
front and ahead of an advancing high pressure system. Winds of
15 to 25 kts have prompted Small Craft Advisories for most of
the marine forecast zones, including an extension west on Lake
Ontario to the Niagara River, as waves over 4 feet will be
possible with the stronger winds this morning. Winds will shift
toward the west and diminish later today into tonight as high
pressure enters. Light and generally variable flow will be
expected across the region for tonight through Thursday.
Easterly winds could increase to 10+ kts on Thursday on Lake
Ontario with the weak system. There will be a late week system
on Friday into Saturday that will elevate marine winds once
again and headlines are possible behind the system on Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic/Apffel
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic/Apffel
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic/Apffel
MARINE...Sefcovic