673
FXUS61 KBUF 070707
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will cross our region today, spreading a
widespread, but light snow across our region. Much colder air behind
this system will send overnight lows down into the single digits for
much of the region this as the light snow tapers off through the
early part of tonight. A few lake effect streamers of snow are
possible south of Lake Ontario Monday morning, otherwise a cold
start to the week with highs struggling to rise out of the teens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much on radar this early morning as a cold front has slipped
south of our region and mid level drying through the snow DGZ has
ended any lingering light snow. A surface wave along the front will
return light snow to our region later this morning.

A shortwave trough over the Central Great lakes this morning will
return mid level moisture to our region, supporting all snow for
this next event. Snow will spread across our region late this
morning and early afternoon, with the more widespread and greater
snowfall amounts found east of Lake Ontario which will lie under the
deeper moisture and closer to the lift ahead of the shortwave
trough. Shallower moisture and away from the broad scale lift of the
mid level shortwave, the southern Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes and
well inland Southern Tier will feature just flurries to light snow.

Overall snow totals will be minor with around an inch for WNY, and
up to two inches on the hills south of Buffalo. Not as much snow for
the downslope areas of the southern Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes, but
east of Lake Ontario where the light snow will persist the longest
up to 4 inches may be found over the Tug Hill today through late
this evening.

Snow tapers off from west to east through the evening hours, coupled
with the passage of the shortwave trough. Lingering low level
moisture may leave fine snowflakes over the upslope regions of SW
NYS and east of Lake Ontario, that will transition to lake effect
flurries south of Lake Ontario within a very cold airmass. Lows
tonight will reach single digits for many, while some clearing late
tonight will allow for sub zero readings for the North County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Well below normal temperatures return for Monday with highs only
reaching into the low teens to near 20 for areas east of Lake
Ontario, and the upper teens to mid 20s for areas south of the lake.
Lingering lake snow flurries/showers will be possible south of Lake
Ontario, with a cold northerly flow of around -16C, with the
greatest potential for snow in the upslope areas over the higher
terrain. While the airmass will lack synoptic moisture, delta Ts of
20C+ between the lake sfc and 850 hPa, along with the -10C heights
only a few hundred feet above the land/lake sfc, the potential for
flurries and snow showers will persist into the morning hours on
Monday.

High pressure will track across the area on Monday night, allowing
for cold and dry conditions. Low temperatures the first half of the
night will drop down to the single digits for most areas and at
least a few degrees below zero for areas east of Lake Ontario. A
southerly return flow, along with the potential for some clouds to
move in during the second half of the night will potentially prevent
further cooling than these values.

A weakening area of low pressure will track well to the north of the
area on Tuesday. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough and
warm front extending southeast from the sfc low will track across
the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a swath of
widespread snow showers to the region, starting later Tuesday
morning for the western zones, and by mid afternoon for eastern
zones. Lake enhanced snow will be possible northeast of the lakes at
the tale end of this system. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will
be possible with this system, with some locally higher amounts for
the Tug Hill area. Areas of the Niagara Frontier may briefly mix
with or change to rain on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in lower snow
amounts. Temperatures on Tuesday rebound from Monday afternoon
values, with highs reaching the low to mid 30s for most areas, with
some mid to upper 20s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Gusty winds to around 35 mph are expected on Tuesday as a LLJ
nearing 50kts moves across the area south of Lake Ontario. While
winds with the LLJ are stronger, mixing these stronger winds to the
sfc doesn`t appear very favorable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
continuing to cross our region...with Tuesday`s weak system quickly
being followed by another...stronger surface low Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with a couple more systems then following between Friday
and Saturday.

Diving more into the details...the snow showers from Tuesday`s
surface low/warm front will barely have a chance to exit our area
Tuesday evening...before more widespread pcpn associated with the
next surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Operational runs of the GEM/GFS/ECWMF continue to
agree on the track of this next system and generally now take
it somewhere between a southern Georgian Bay-Ottawa Valley axis
and Lake Ontario...though it remains to be seen whether this
better consistency will last given both the still-somewhat
distant time frame and differences in track seen up through last
night. The exact track of the low will heavily influence just
how much of a warmup (and consequently the pcpn types) we`ll
see...as well as the potential for any stronger winds. A more
northern track would allow for a stronger warmup and more of a
changeover to plain rain for a time on Wednesday along with a
greater chance of stronger winds...while a more southerly track
would support colder temps/more snow and a lower wind potential.
For now have continued to lean toward recent
trends/continuity...which suggest snow Tuesday night changing to
a mix of mainly lower elevation rain and higher elevation
rain/snow during Wednesday.

In the wake of this system...a shot of colder air should then change
any lingering pcpn back to snow and bring at least some limited lake
effect snow potential to areas downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The next surface low then looks to pass by to
our south Friday while bringing the chance of a more general
snowfall...with even colder air and another weak system then
forecast to arrive for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS VFR to higher terrain MVFR ceiling heights are
found, with little precipitation as mid level drying through the
snow DGZ has all but ended the light snow. A weak surface low
approaching us from the Midwest will return light snow to our region
late this morning and through the afternoon hours. While snow will
be light, it will likely bring a small period of IFR flight
conditions...persisting longest east of Lake Ontario (KART).

Behind the shortwave trough, snow will taper off through the early
evening hours for the western TAF sites, and mid overnight east of
Lake Ontario, however winds will increase in speed a bit with cold
air advection with light northwest gusts around 20 knots tonight.

Drier air will end the bulk of the precipitation by late tonight,
though a cold flow over the warm Lake Ontario waters may bring
shallow lake effect streamers off Lake Ontario, possibly impacting
KROC with brief MVFR flight conditions.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday...VFR to IFR with light snow, possibly mixing with rain
Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy.

Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have diminished enough to also allow waves to fall below small
craft criteria this morning, with all small craft advisories
ending.

A weak area of low pressure passing through the Lower Lakes today
will likely again bring small craft conditions, this on a northwest
flow this afternoon and overnight. Additional round of small crafts
for the eastern Great Lakes, and lower Niagara River.

High pressure builds east late Sunday night into  Monday across the
lakes, with lighter winds and diminishing wave action.

Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower
LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower
Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time
period for these stronger winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas