646
FXUS61 KBUF 012335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure building across the region tonight will bring
cold temperatures along with clear skies this evening, before
higher clouds increase overnight. Another storm system will arrive
Wednesday afternoon and night, with gusty southerly winds and
rain showers. A significant warm up is expected Thursday with
additional showers, mainly early in the day. Dry and seasonable
weather returns on Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Winds will lighten tonight, and veer easterly tonight as the axis
of a surface ridge of high pressure passes across the region.
Clear skies this evening, before higher level clouds gradually
increase overnight. It will be cold with lows in the teens east
of Lake Ontario, and lower to mid 20s for western New York. Due
to increasing clouds and winds, lows will likely be reached on
the early side, during the middle of the night rather at
daybreak.

A rather dynamic system will lift out of the central plains into
the upper midwest on Wednesday. The day will start out dry, but
initial impacts will begin by mid day as the lead arm of
isentropic ascent ahead of a warm frontal segment reaches the
region. Strong northward moisture transport will blossom
precipitation across the region during the afternoon and into
Wednesday night. Thermal profiles suggesting mainly rain with
this event, already some leading edge mixed snow showers will be
possible across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Surface
temperatures above freezing will likely eliminate the risk for
any freezing rain.

A strong 60+ knot low level jet with associated 850 mb moisture
transport will drive the very moist airmass with Gulf ties into the
western New York. Forecast precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5
inches, by Wednesday afternoon is well above climatological normals.
There will be very little surface based CAPE as the surface cold
front approaches the region Wednesday night, but the quality of
elevated instability will bring the risk for a few elevated
storms. Maximum QPF amounts during this time frame likely across
the northern half of the area from three quarters to an inch,
amounts closer to a half inch across the Southern Tier.

The strength of the low level jet will bring the potential for
strong wind gusts. The strongest gusts, possibly up to 50 mph
will be focused across the the hilltops and the typical
downslope areas immediately downwind of the higher terrain
across the areas south of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A broad mid-latitude cyclone over Lake Superior Thursday morning
will trudge to central Quebec by the evening, its surface low
weakening from around 990mb to 1000mb in the process. Strong
synoptic lift from a passing 65-70kt LLJ with PWATs still 1-1.25" in
the system`s warm sector will promote the development of additional
showers and possibly a few elevated thunderstorms, especially in the
morning hours. The region should otherwise see a drying trend from
northwest to southeast through the day as the system`s weak cold
front begins to sag through and sfc high pressure begins to nose
across the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest. 12z guidance has
trended stronger with post-frontal southwest winds aloft Thursday
afternoon and evening, though the CAA regime looks quite weak.
Still, low-level mixing should increase enough to lead to a rather
breezy day, especially across the Niagara Frontier and North Country
if skies manage to clear enough before sundown. Despite the showers
and incoming cold front, Thursday should manage to be the warmest of
the next 7 days with highs in the low/mid 70s from the Genesee
Valley through the Finger Lakes, with a mix of 60s elsewhere.

As the upper level flow across the Northeast becomes increasingly
zonal through Friday and the cold front runs up against a strong
Bermuda high off the southeast coast, it will initially stall out
across the Mississippi Valley and up through southern Pennsylvania.
This will lead to continued lower-end chances for rain south of Lake
Ontario through Thursday night, mainly closer to the NY/PA border.
Areawide dry weather is then expected as the high over the Great
Lakes shifts east to New England by Friday evening, shunting the
front further south of the forecast area. Temperatures should be
more seasonable, though still average several degrees above normal.
The respite from the active weather will be short lived as the
boundary lifts northward as a warm front on the backside of the high
Friday night, leading to renewed chances for showers late in the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wet and soggy weekend is looking more and more `likely`as a couple
of waves traverse a tight thermal gradient anticipated to set up
across the region. P-type will `all` be in the liquid form...that is
until atleast early Sunday evening. After that...colder air is
advertised to push in with rain mixing with snow (lower elevations)
or changing over to wet snow across the higher terrain. We could
even see some minor accumulations on grassy surfaces before precip
wraps up Sunday night. As we head into Monday...we should see a
brief period of quiet weather before another cold front approaches
the Lower Lakes. This front will bring a much colder airmass to the
area with chances for snow showers beginning as early as Monday
afternoon and lasting through the day Tuesday. Confidence decreases
Wednesday and beyond but we should see a gradual modification
(warming) taking place as we head through the later portion of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Winds will veer to easterly and lower tonight as surface high
pressure passes over the region. Widespread VFR flight
conditions will prevail overnight, though with high level
clouds increasing through the night ahead of the next storm
system.

Deterioration to MVFR with rain showers overspreading
the area in the afternoon. Winds will also increase during the
day.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Becoming windy with continued rain showers.

Thursday...Restrictions to MVFR/IFR early with rain showers exiting.
Continued windy.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions likely in scattered to numerous rain showers.

Sunday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will nose southward from Canada tonight,
diminishing winds and eventually waves on the lakes.

Easterly winds will increase tonight on the lakes as this high
pressure advances across Quebec. Issued small craft headlines
for the western south shores of Lake Ontario for the easterly
flow Wednesday morning. Winds will then become southeasterly
Wednesday and Wednesday night and then southwesterly Thursday...all
while frequently reaching speeds within small craft criteria
over both Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas/TMA