650
FXUS61 KBUF 252342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
742 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure consolidating over Lower Michigan this evening will
pass over our region overnight...producing widespread showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms in the process. The shower activity
will taper off from west to east on Saturday...as the area of low
pressure will exit across New England. Unfortunately...unsettled
conditions will persist east of Lake Ontario through at least
Saturday night. High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday
will provide a wealth of sunshine over the western counties with
gradual improvement further east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a brief lull in the shower activity this evening
behind the initial wave of showers. A second more robust shortwave
will then push a consolidating area of low pressure from Lower
Michigan across our forecast. This will support a second round of
fairly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms over our
region...especially across the western Southern Tier...Finger Lakes
and Eastern Lake Ontario regions where a quarter to a half inch of
rain could fall. While this will result in a noticeable rise in area
tributaries...no issues are anticipated on the larger streams/rivers.

Strong shortwave energy rounding the base of a digging trough over
southern Ontario will `capture` the sfc low over the St Lawrence
valley and slow its exit to the east. While the bulk of the mid
level energy will be stripped away over our region in the process...
significant hgt falls and a wealth of leftover low level moisture
will retard the dissipation of the morning showers. In fact...
showers will persist through the day into Saturday night for areas
east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures on Saturday will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees lower than
those from today (Fri)...as highs in most areas will only be in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A slower departure of a mid level trough Sunday will linger rain
showers, perhaps mixed with wet snowflakes, east of Lake Ontario
through the morning, before drier air and improving conditions from
the west advances eastward. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night
with passage of a surface ridge will allow for temperatures to drop
towards freezing east of Lake Ontario.

Mainly clear starlit skies will be in place Sunday night...as high
pressure will cross the region. Milder and dry Monday and Monday
night on the backside of the surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active day is becoming more likely for Tuesday as deep southerly
flow ushers in a moisture rich airmass and instability that coupled
with a strong LLJ will bring favorable conditions for at least
locally strong thunderstorms.

Still a little timing uncertainty among the model guidance, mainly
as to how much sunshine/ rain showers will be around in the morning
hours. Siding with the NBM as well as the 12Z Canadian and 12Z ECMWF
much of Tuesday morning should be dry before storms erupt during the
afternoon and evening hours. PWAT values rising to over an inch
along with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s will
create SBCAPE values over 1K J/KG. A strengthening LLJ to 50-55 knots
running parallel to the cold front will favor linear structures to
thunderstorms, while increasing CAPE in the mid levels will also
favor the formation of hail in stronger storms.

Afternoon and evening timing on the storms within a prefrontal
trough, with a breezy westerly to northwesterly wind through
Wednesday behind the passage of a cold front Tuesday night.

Mainly dry conditions Wednesday through at least Thursday morning,
though a secondary cold front may clip the North Country with a few
showers Wednesday. Returning moisture ahead of the mid level trough
will return unsettled weather Thursday afternoon through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief lull behind the initial wave of showers will support mainly
VFR cigs this evening. After that...the next round of showers,
possibly with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will arrive
tonight. VFR cigs will deteriorate overnight to MVFR then
eventually to IFR to LIFR levels.

Most areas will experience MVFR cigs on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, but morning MVFR cigs and scattered showers east of
Lake Ontario.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR with afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes to just north of
the lower Great Lakes tonight through early Saturday. East winds
will increase today on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy
conditions developing.

Conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory are more likely Saturday
through Saturday night behind the cold front, especially on Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/RSH
MARINE...AR/TMA