


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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538 FXUS61 KBUF 032322 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 722 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair dry weather through the weekend, with day to day warming. Next chance of rain arrives Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expansive ridge along the southern New England coast will drift southward to the Mid-Atlantic coast through Saturday, maintaining dry weather and above-normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc ridge along the Mid-Alantic will ever so slowly drift out to sea but will maintain fair dry weather through Monday. Mild southerly flow will develop on the western peripheral of the ridge which will then push temps well above normal Sunday and again on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front begins to near the region Monday night but dry weather will `likely` prevail for much the night. Timing of the pre-frontal trough and then subsequent cold front will determine shower and thunderstorm potential, and overall coverage on Tuesday. Given the extremely dry pattern we`ve been in for the past few months...this rainfall would be much-welcomed...even if it doesn`t currently appear to be a true drought-buster. Another strong sfc ridge builds quickly in behind the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will support fair dry weather through atleast Friday. After a brief cool down we will see a gradual warming trend as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Valley fog is likely to form in the interior Southern Tier Valleys, though with the continued very dry airmass, expansion of fog to across the KJHW airfield is low. Otherwise light winds with a southwest component tonight and into tomorrow morning regionwide, before a lake breeze pushes past KROC in the mid afternoon, sending winds to a northeast flow off Lake Ontario, including KROC. Outlook... Saturday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and localized IFR possible each late night through the morning hours. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers. && .MARINE... Weak gradient through this weekend will result in winds generally 10 knots or less with diurnal lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds pick up to 10 to 15 knots ahead of a cold front Monday. Winds turn northwesterly behind the frontal passage with possible small craft headlines needed on Lake Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...TMA