346
FXUS61 KBUF 040634
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Large area of high pressure anchored near the Mid-Atlantic coast
will continue to dominate our weather with dry conditions and
unseasonably warm temperatures through early next week. A cold front
will then bring some beneficial rains as it crosses the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night, followed by another area of high pressure
building back in across the region bringing a return to dry,
but much cooler weather for the middle and later portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large area of high pressure will remain anchored near the Mid-
Atlantic coast maintaining dry and very warm conditions through the
period. In fact, highs today will be 15-20 degrees above average for
early October. Overnight lows will also remain well above average.
Weak pressure gradient will keep winds light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday through Monday surface high pressure initially draped along
the eastern seaboard will slowly drift offshore...while the axis of
amplifying upper-level ridging slides from the eastern Great Lakes
to the New England coastline in response to digging troughing across
Central Canada and the northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes.

The resulting large-scale subsidence and warm/dry airmass will
provide us with continued fair dry weather and summerlike warmth
right through Monday. Expect daytime highs of 15-20 degrees above
normal (upper 70s higher terrain and lower-mid 80s across the lower
elevations) both days...while lows Sunday night will range some 10
degrees or so above normal (from near 50 across far interior
sections to mid-upper 50s across the lake plains).

Monday night through Tuesday night the aforementioned upper level
trough will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes...with an
attendant broad surface low eventually pushing its trailing cold
front southeastward across our region in the later Tuesday-Tuesday
night time frame. Favorable moisture return along/ahead of the front
coupled with decent low level convergence and DCVA/height falls
aloft should lead to a period of fairly widespread showers attendant
to its passage...with weak instability also possibly supporting a
couple isolated thunderstorms Tuesday/early Tuesday evening.

With respect to potential rainfall amounts...these remain uncertain
given continued model differences in the exact timing of the front
and in how quickly it passes through our region...with the latter
arising due to variance in the degree of waviness that develops
along the boundary. This being said...a general half inch to an inch
of rain at least appears to be a possibility from this system at
this still-early juncture. While such amounts would not be a true
drought-buster...these would still be much-welcomed given the
extremely dry pattern we`ve been locked into the past few months.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of the cold front...Canadian high pressure and a much
cooler/drier airmass will overspread our area for Wednesday and
Thursday...resulting in temperatures falling back to a bit below
average for the last two days of this period. Depending upon the
eventual magnitude and timing of the coolest air aloft...it`s
possible that daytime highs may not make it out of the 50s on one or
both of Wednesday/Thursday. Additionally...the much cooler airmass
may also bring the potential for a frost/freeze across normally
colder interior portions of our area Wednesday night...and to a
somewhat lesser extent Thursday night as the ridge axis drifts east
of our longitude.

By Friday the core of the surface ridge will be sliding east and off
the New England coastline...with a southwesterly return flow of
warmer air on its backside helping to push high temperatures back to
a bit above normal as we close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be found through the TAF
period, with the exception being some localized fog during the
overnight through mid morning hours.

The main area of concern for the remainder of the overnight will be
some advection fog off Lake Erie and the Niagara River impacting
KIAG. VSBY will likely be highly variable with this scenario, with
fluctuations between VLIFR and VFR common through the early morning
hours. Otherwise, patchy valley fog will also be possible across the
interior Southern Tier later tonight through a couple hours after
sunrise. Light winds off the deck along with a light southerly
surface wind will make it a bit more favorable for valley fog
formation, however with such a dry airmass in place, confidence in
any fog reaching KJHW is low.

Light synoptic flow today will allow for the development of lake
breeze circulations this afternoon, with the Lake Ontario breeze
pushing south of KROC around mid afternoon causing a light
southwesterly flow to veer northerly through around sunset, but
remain light.

Outlook...

Tonight through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and localized IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak gradient flow through the weekend will result in winds
generally 10 knots or less with diurnal lake breeze circulations
developing each afternoon.

South to southwest winds pick up to 10 to 15 knots ahead of a cold
front Sunday night through Monday night. Winds turn northwesterly
and freshen behind the frontal passage with possible small craft
headlines needed Tuesday night and Wednesday, especially on Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM