527
FXUS61 KBUF 181753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight and
Wednesday.

2) Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1... A round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late
tonight and Wednesday.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will exit east tonight,
allowing a warm frontal segment to lift into the region. Cyclonic
flow aloft becomes established over our area, with a few embedded
shortwave disturbances moving through the region as a cold front
makes it way across the region Wednesday. A round of showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Wednesday
as weak to moderate instability develops within the warm sector
ahead of the cold front.

Key Message 2...Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this
weekend.

High pressure maintaining fair weather Thursday and Friday will
shift east over the coming weekend. A deepening upper level trough
will impact the Great Lakes this weekend. A warm front should drift
north through western and north central New York Saturday/Saturday
night and be followed by the passage of a cold front Sunday.
Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected as modest
instability develops combined with moist isentropic ascent along the
warm front Saturday. Coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms
should increase Saturday night and Sunday as the upper trough
approaches and the cold front crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions currently across area terminals with SCT low-level
clouds around 4-7 kft. Skies will continue to clear this afternoon
before upper level cloud cover begins to approach this evening
associated with the next system from the west. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms early Wednesday morning may bring brief MVFR to IFR
conditions to western NY terminals. Another round of isolated to
scattered storms may develop Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Dry weather and mainly VFR
likely, although localized fog with MVFR to LIFR VSBY in/near
river/lake valleys is possible around daybreak on Thursday and
Friday.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with brief MVFR to LIFR are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally west to northwest winds through this evening at less than
15 knots. High pressure ridge over the region through this evening
will shift east tonight. This will cause winds to back to southwest
overnight with speeds remaining less than 15 knots. A cold front
will sweep southeast across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday with
winds veering to northwest and northerly behind the frontal passage.

A ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
through Thursday and Friday with winds becoming variable in
direction. The ridge should exit Friday night through Saturday,
allowing a warm front to drift northward through the area. The warm
frontal passage should cause mainly east/southeast winds to
veer to south/southwest.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...TMA