229
FXUS61 KBUF 220226
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1026 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant weather through Tuesday, then heat and humidity
begins to creep up on Wednesday. Hot and humid conditions for
Thursday, before some relief arrives Friday as a cold front brings
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high will continue to settle south across the region tonight.
This will bring light winds and then set the stage for good
radiational cooling overnight. We should see temps fall off into
the mid to upper 40s in the cooler spots with a range of 50s
elsewhere. Forecast Td depressions appear a bit too large for
overnight valley fog development but based on high-res guidance
and general setup there remains a small (15-30%) chc.

The center of the sfc high pressure drifts by just to the north of
Lake Ontario Tuesday, then off the coast near Nantucket Island.
Overall...another very nice day is on tap but a bit warmer as the
airmass begins to modify over the region. Highs will be found in the
70s areawide to near 80F in spots.

Sfc high pressure will drop anchor just off the Northeast coast
Tuesday night and will remain there through the day Wednesday. It
will also encourage southerly flow to develop and strengthen across
the region. A warm and more humid airmass will then advect into the
Lower Lakes with H850T`s climbing to +15C to +18C. This will support
highs solidly in the 80s, with some locations along the lake plains
nearing 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet and dry weather will prevail Wednesday night but it will be
the first night of less than ideal sleeping conditions. We will
`likely` only see mercury readings fall back into the 60s to low 70s
and then factor in humidity levels creeping up.

Heat and humidity builds further Thursday ahead of the trough and
weak cold front expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday.
Associated subsidence and continued warm advection in between the
departed surface ridge and a slow-moving weak cold front over
Ontario/Quebec helping to pump 850 mb temps up to +19C to +21C. This
should translate into highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s in many
areas...with a few of our normal warm spots reaching the mid 90s.
Coupled with surface dewpoints surging to around 70F...this may
result in apparent temperatures reaching the mid 90s to low-end 100s
(i.e., Heat Advisory Criteria) from the Niagara Frontier and Genesee
Valley eastward to Oswego county. Otherwise the day should be
largely dry...with just some isolated afternoon convection possible
across the North Country as the aforementioned frontal boundary
begins to slowly sag southward. A rather sultry night will then
follow for Thursday night...with chances of convection gradually
spreading southward across the area in tandem with the slowly
advancing frontal boundary.

The weak cold front slowly oozes through the Lower Lakes on Friday
with chances for showers and thunderstorms decreasing from north to
south. That said...its worth mentioning that BUFKIT profiles do
show PW values around 2" ahead and along the front. Given
that...there will be the `potential` for very heavy rainfall
with any stronger storms that form. Otherwise...still
anticipating a fairly warm day but we should see MaxT`s shave
off several (2F to 4F) degrees over Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The `WEAK` cold front is advertised to stall out a little to our
south or over the Mid-Alantic over the weekend as it runs up against
the lingering ridge...and one or more shortwave impulses/attendant
surface waves rippling eastward along it. While most locales will
see dry weather...there will still remain some lingering chances for
showers and storms behind the weak front through Monday. The
greatest chances will be found along any convergent boundary and
near the Pennsylvania border given the presence of the stalled-out
boundary to our south.

Otherwise...it should remain rather warm with highs ranging through
the 80s. With the medium range guidance depicting only minor changes
in airmass behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds will continue across the region
tonight through Tuesday. Valley fog is possible, however
coverage seems patchy overnight. Lake breezes will cause an
uptick in northeast winds at KIAG and KROC Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. An isolated chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

Thursday Night and Friday...MVFR/VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly
across the Southern Tier closer to the NY/PA line.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow today with some chop on area lakes. Waves will
generally be 2 feet or less.

High pressure settles over the region on Tuesday before sliding into
to New England by Wednesday. Minimal wave action on Tuesday, then
winds become southerly Wednesday but we will continue to see light
winds and waves. Southwest Winds strengthen Thursday ahead of a cold
front nearing the Lower Lakes, with possible near SCA conditions on
Lake Erie and the western portion of Lake Ontario.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Temperatures are expected to spike towards daily record
territory on Thursday July 24th. Below are listed the record
warm minimum and record maximum temperatures for our three
climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Records start
in the year 1871 for Buffalo and Rochester, while Watertown`s
period of record starts 1949.

...July 24th records...

...Site........Record Minimum (F) ....Record Maximum (F)

...Buffalo.....75/2001................91/1945

...Rochester...74/2001................97/1941

...Watertown...74/1967................90/1973


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR/JJR
LONG TERM...AR/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...AR
CLIMATE...Thomas