547
FXUS61 KBUF 250643
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
243 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front lying across southern portions of the Ontario
province early this morning, will continue to drop southeast across
New York State today, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
with uneven coverage of rainfall. A few storms may contain gusty
winds and brief downpours. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
then continues throughout the weekend, with the best chance being
Saturday night into Sunday morning. However this being said, the
weekend won`t be a complete wash out with plenty of dry time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current radar imagery is depicting a very weak and broken line of
showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley, New York State and
into the Saint Lawrence Valley, with the main activity of thunder
lying to the south of New York State. Said activity is the resultant
of an incoming weak cold front lying across the southern portions of
the Ontario province.

As the aforementioned front gradually crosses from northwest to
southeast today, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
persist out ahead of the front. This being said, the activity will
be quite scattered with uneven rainfall today. As the front drops
south, shower and storm activity will end from northwest to
southeast, though lingering convergence zones driven by lake breeze
boundaries may support a few showers to linger through the mid-
afternoon near and east of Buffalo and Watertown.

Today will be cooler than the day prior, however the sticky
conditions will continue as dewpoints wil remain in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Temperatures today will topple off in the low to mid 80s.

While much of the region will be on the dry side as brief surface
high pressure works its way east into the eastern Great Lakes region
tonight, lingering moisture from the showers/storms that passed
through earlier in the day will support valley fog to form across
areas east of Lake Ontario and the western Southern Tier.
Additionally, clearing skies will support ample radiational cooling
tonight supporting temperatures to plummet into the low to mid 60s
across much of the area and into the 50s across the higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario, especially the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid-level ridge and surface high pressure will be across the
forecast area Saturday morning. Dry and fair weather will begin the
day. A shortwave trough over the Mid-West will approach the Lower
Great Lakes Saturday. An elevated southwest flow will begin to drive
deep moisture into western NY through Saturday afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, with dry
weather continuing east of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region. A
warm, and humid airmass will spread across the rest of the forecast
area Saturday night. Large scale forcing will increase as the
shortwave trough nears and coverage of showers and thunderstorms
should expand across the region overnight. The southward trend in
showers and storms continues with the higher probability south of
Lake Ontario, however there remains uncertainty in the track of
this system and can`t rule out showers and thunderstorms east of
Lake Ontario yet. Increasing shear may produce some stronger
thunderstorms resulting in gusty winds. Any thunderstorms will
produce heavy downpours.

The trough will move east of the forecast area Sunday. Moisture will
linger with a low chance of showers and storms along the lakeshores
and northeast of the Lakes and a medium chance further inland
through Sunday morning. Upper level ridging will move back into the
region Sunday through Monday. A warming trend is expected with day
to day warming, with possible heat indices reaching or exceeded the
mid 90s, especially on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The forecast area will be situated on the northeast side of a strong
ridge through Wednesday. Warm and humid weather will continue across
the region along with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A
large scale pattern shift is anticipated for late in the week as a
mid-level trough digs into the Northeast. There is medium to high
confidence of cooler weather Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 06Z, a weakening and broken line of showers and thunderstorms
spans from the Ohio Valley across New York State and into the Saint
Lawrence Valley. The stronger storms and thunder is south of New
York State this morning. Activity is due to a weak cold front
dropping southeast across southern portions of the Ontario province.
This front is progged to cross the area today from northwest to
southeast, where it will continue to support a few more scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Activity will then gradually end from northwest to southeast this
afternoon as the front passes. However, lingering convergence zones
from lake breeze boundaries may support a few showers to linger
across Buffalo and areas westward.

CIGS will continue to be VFR early this morning, however a brief
period of more widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS will arrive around 12Z with
the cold frontal passage. CIGS will then improve to VFR from north
to south during the afternoon.

Clear skies will continue to support mainly VFR conditions tonight.
However, lingering moisture and ample radiational cooling will
support valley fog to develop across both the Southern Tier and east
of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a few showers or
thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier closer to the NY/PA
line.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will gradually drop southeast across the area
today, supporting southwest winds to shift to west/northwesterly
late this afternoon. Wind speeds on average will be between 10 to 15
knot creating a light chop on both lakes.

Surface high pressure will slide east across the central Great Lakes
and into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, supporting light winds and
waves tonight through Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ