353
FXUS61 KBUF 261054
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few spotty showers and thunderstorms today.

2) More unsettled weather will return Monday and Tuesday with
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

3) Showers and storms will linger into Wednesday, with drier
conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A few spotty showers and thunderstorms today.

As the next shortwave trough moves into the eastern Great Lakes
region, moisture will increase today. Diurnal heating combined with
lake breeze and terrain effects will support a chance for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the inland portions of
the area this afternoon and into the early evening. High-res
guidance continues to support an area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the metro area of Toronto to move across the
Niagara Peninsula and into the Buffalo/Niagara Falls metros this
evening.


Key Message 2...More unsettled weather will return Monday and
Tuesday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

A broad longwave trough will remain overhead of the region Monday
and Tuesday, while a large upper level ridge to the east of the
trough, will allow multiple shortwave trough to ripple through the
longwave pattern. The shortwave disturbances combined with the
seasonably warm air, will result in unsettled weather with rounds of
showers and scattered thunderstorms.

As an initial shortwave trough passes over the area during the time
of peak diurnal heating and instability, showers and scattered
storms will form inland from the lakes Monday afternoon, especially
across the the Finger Lakes and into the eastern Lake Ontario region
where there will be more available moisture and the maxima of
forcing from the passing shortwave will overlap. Given the timing of
the shortwave passage being during peak heating, there is a Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather Monday due to the weak low to mid level
winds and weak shear across the region. Additionally given the weak
flow, localized heavy downpours will be the main concern, due to
PWAT values of around 1.5 inches. However, deep-layer shear of 25 to
30 knots across the western Southern Tier may support a couple to a
few stronger storms.

Another stronger shortwave trough and associated surface wave will
pass southeast across the Great Lakes Monday night and into Tuesday
supporting more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, with
the best coverage occuring Tuesday afternoon and evening correlating
to the timing of diurnal heating/destabilization effects. Shear
profiles continue to be weak, and do not support organized severe
storms, however across the Southern Tier there may be enough shear
to support a few stray showers across the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic to become severe. Otherwise, a soupy airmass overhead (PWAT
values of around 1.5 inches or slightly higher, will support a few
heavy downpours.

Key Message 3...Showers and storms will linger into Wednesday, with
drier conditions for the end of the work week.

In the wake of the passing system Tuesday, lingering longwave
troughing will remain across the region, supporting another round of
diurnally driven convention to develop inland from the lakes
Wednesday. However due to the notably weaker instability Wednesday,
most of the activity will be constrained to brief and numerous
showers with a few widely scattered thunderstorms.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will lift northeast across eastern
Canada supporting a generally dry trend for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture across western New York from the passing showers the
evening prior will continue to support some fog, mainly across the
Southern Tier, supporting localized IFR conditions. Fog will
dissipate within the next couple of hours.

Otherwise mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the remainder of
the TAF sites today. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop
inland from the Lakes this afternoon, with mainly VFR conditions
expected.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a low chance for showers/thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will linger through the start of the week,
resulting in gentle waves.

Southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday,
where choppy waters will develop on the northeast ends of the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ