591
FXUS61 KBUF 032323
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-summer heat will build through Wednesday. A weak cold front will
slowly cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday with a few showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm. The front will stall just south
of the area Thursday night through Saturday. Several waves of low
pressure will then move along the stalled frontal zone and bring a
few more rounds of rain Thursday night through Saturday. High
pressure will then build into the Great Lakes Sunday with a return
to dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Get ready for a colorful sunset as sunshine filtering through an
elevated layer of smoke will continue this evening.

High pressure surface and aloft will remain anchored along and just
off the eastern seaboard tonight through Wednesday. This will
maintain dry weather and fair skies. HRRR smoke model suggests the
elevated smoke layer will remain in place over the region through
Wednesday.

Tonight will be much milder than recent nights, with lows only
dropping back into the low to mid 60s on the lake plains and mid to
upper 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the 85-
90 degree range for lower elevations away from lake influences.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The majority of Wednesday night will stay dry with high pressure
surface and aloft still anchored along the eastern seaboard. A cold
front upstream stretching from central Quebec to lower Michigan will
begin to approach towards Thursday morning, bringing an increase in
clouds. The first shower chances will arrive around or just before
daybreak Thursday in far northwest portions of the area.

The weak cold front will move slowly southeast across the area
Thursday. The better height falls and upper level jet support will
pass well north of the area, leaving relatively weak low level
convergence along the slowly advancing boundary. This will support a
few areas of disorganized showers, and there may be just enough
instability to support an isolated thunderstorm or two.

The cold front will stall Thursday night through Friday from the
Ohio Valley to southern New England. One or two waves of low
pressure will run east along the stalled frontal boundary, each
bringing enhanced frontogenesis and moisture convergence and a
commensurate increase in rain coverage. There remains some
uncertainty with the frontal position and thus the track of these
waves of low pressure Thursday night through Friday night. Overall,
the rain chances will be greatest over southern portions of the area
and lowest over the north.

The recurring waves of low pressure may produce significant rainfall
along their track. NBM ensemble probabilities suggest the greatest
chance of heavy rain will be south and east of our area, but model
trends will be monitored over the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The stalled frontal zone will remain near or just south of the area
Saturday, with one more frontal wave moving ENE along the boundary.
There continues to be a significant amount of spread in model and
ensemble guidance with the track and timing of this last frontal
wave. If it tracks far enough south (such as in the 00Z ECMWF),
Saturday may end up being mainly dry. The majority of model and
ensemble guidance however suggests rain chances will continue
through Saturday.

High pressure will then build east across the Great Lakes Saturday
night through Sunday with a return to dry weather and seasonable
temperatures. The next mid level trough and cold front will move
east across the Great Lakes Monday, with the mid level trough
becoming centered on the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday. This system
will bring the next chance of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms
later Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will prevail this evening through Wednesday as
high pressure remains anchored along and just off the eastern
seaboard. An elevated layer of smoke will remain in place over the
region through Wednesday, but little if any impact on near surface
visibility is expected.

A low level jet will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes
tonight through Wednesday. This will produce some low level wind
shear overnight into Wednesday morning.

With surface high pressure anchored overhead Wednesday, expect VFR
conditions to prevail. Clouds will begin to advect into the region
from northwest to southeast overnight Wednesday, dropping cloud
bases to low end VFR/MVFR.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday...MVFR with showers likely.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain anchored just off the eastern seaboard
through Wednesday. Winds will remain relatively light through
Wednesday in most areas. The one exception will be on the western
portion of Lake Ontario where moderate southwesterlies will develop
Wednesday. The strongest winds and greatest wave action will remain
in offshore and Canadian waters.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ/Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock