456
FXUS61 KBUF 031528 AAA
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1128 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a warm front...temperatures will soar into the 60s
and 70s today...but the warmth will be short lived. A cold front
will plow across the state today with more showers and possible
thunderstorms...then more seasonable conditions will follow for
later tonight and Friday. Unfortunately...the upcoming weekend
promises to be unsettled with another soaking rain Saturday into at
least Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Update: Adjusted PoPs today to account for showers in a well
defined band near cold front heading across central and eastern
portions of forecast area. Pressure gradient weakens behind the
front so expect winds to subside as they turn more westerly
during the afternoon. Looks like will be able to let wind
advisory for far east expire on time or perhaps even cancel a
couple of hours early.

...Previous discussion...
A mature sub 1000mb storm system near Lake Superior this morning
will move to western Quebec during the afternoon and evening...and
this will push at least two boundaries through our forecast area.
This first will be a pre frontal trough that will support numerous
showers and possibly a couple thunderstorms during the morning
hours. A 50-60kt low level jet will accompany this boundary...so
while a portion of these winds will remain elevated within a short
lived warm sector...sfc winds will gust to 40 to 45 mph in some
areas. The strongest of these gusts will be found across the IAG
Frontier and portions of the western Southern Tier. Temperatures in
the wake of this boundary and ahead of an approaching cold front
will soar into the lower 70s for many areas.

As we move through the midday and afternoon...a cold front will make
its way across the region. This should be a mainly dry frontal
passage...as the bulk of the mid level moisture from the previous 24
hours will have been stripped away with the aforementioned pre-
frontal trough. Skies will at least partially clear from west to
east in the wake of this frontal passage.

The cold front will stall across the Mid Atlantic region tonight...
as at least two sfc waves will track along the boundary. Mid level
moisture ahead of these waves will briefly surge back to the north
across the western Southern Tier...and with the help of a little
shortwave energy...this could lead to a few nuisance showers near
the Pennsylvania border. Otherwise...sky cover tonight will range
from some cirrus across the North country to overcast conditions for
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region.

Friday should then be a nice throughout the region...as a burgeoning
mid level ridge over the entire Great Lakes region will support
Canadian high pressure that will push the low and mid moisture from
the overnight back to the south. That will lead to partly to mostly
sunny skies near and east of Lake Ontario with slower clearing
expected for the Srn Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
The axis of mid-level ridging will lie across the eastern Great
Lakes Friday night, while to the west, the northern and southern
stream trough axes will have aligned lying across the Southwest
towards the Northern Plains. The trough to the west will gradually
advance east, with the northern stream trough making more of an
eastward progression into the upper Great Lakes by Saturday morning
and the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night.

Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front currently passing across
the region this morning will be stalled across central Pennsylvania
Friday night due to surface high pressure lying both north and south
of the boundary. As a result mainly dry weather will grace the
region for the start of Friday night. However, rainy active weather
will soon enter the region as the northern stream trough allows a
shortwave trough passage to round its base, spawning surface low
pressure to develop on the boundary and support the boundary and
surface low to push northeast across the region Friday night through
Saturday night. With up to 1.2 inches of precipitable water
associated with and along the boundary, rainfall amounts will
average between 0.75 inches and 1.25 inches across the areas north
of the I-90. To the south of the thruway, between 1.25 and 1.75
inches of rain will be possible with a few isolated spots up to 2
inches across the Southern Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad mid-level positively tilted troughing will lie across much of
the eastern half of the CONUS Sunday through Wednesday. Within the
longwave troughing pattern, a few shortwave troughs will round the
base of the northern stream trough, the first passing Sunday and the
second passing Tuesday. Overall this will support colder air to
funnel into the region late this weekend and last through the first
half of next week, as well as active weather.

Looking further into the details, the passage of the initial
shortwave trough will support a second surface low to ride up along
the surface boundary lying from the Northeast across the Ohio Valley
and into the Mississippi Valley Sunday. This low will not only
support the continued likelihood for showers Sunday, but also pull
the boundary further east throughout the day. Additionally, colder
air will filter in behind the boundary, changing rain to snow
throughout the day, first at the hill tops and then eventually in
the lower elevations.

After a brief interlude in weather Sunday, the next aforementioned
shortwave trough will support the next surface low pressure system
to slide southeast across the Great Lakes. This will renew the
chances for precipitation, however with the colder temperatures
aloft, precipitation will likely remain all snow.

The next surface high will then build east across the Great Lakes
Wednesday supporting dry weather. but chilly weather for early April.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Areas of MVFR in cigs and vsby this morning will improve during the
midday and afternoon with partial clearing. It will be windy though
with southwest gusts to 35 kts.

VFR conditions this evening will then remain in place for most of
the TAF sites through the overnight. The exception will be across
the Southern Tier where thickening clouds will include the potential
for MVFR cigs at sites like KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions likely in scattered to numerous
rain showers.
Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong southerlies will be in place through midday ahead of
an approaching cold front...then winds will veer to the west
southwest this afternoon as the front passes. The resulting small
craft advisory conditions will remain in place into the evening
hours...with the nearshore waters from Irondequoit Bay to the St
Lawrence river remaining rough until about 06z.

Gentle to moderate breezes Friday morning will continue to weaken
during the afternoon...as sfc high pressure will track just tot he
north of Lake Ontario.

As an area of low pressure approaches and moves just south of the
Lower Great lakes late Friday night and Saturday morning...an
easterly flow will freshen over the region. This will keep the
highest wave action in Canadian waters until the afternoon when
winds backing to the south southwest will target the eastern third
of Lake Ontario with potential small craft advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Craven PBZ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH