531
FXUS61 KBUF 261831
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger through tonight as an upper level low crosses
the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will continue through Sunday
morning east of Lake Ontario, and the higher terrain of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western Adirondacks will even change over to some wet
snow with a coating of slush on the grass. High pressure will then
build into the eastern Great Lakes with clearing skies from west to
east through the day Sunday. Dry weather will continue Monday along
with a warming trend to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the showers through the rest of the afternoon will be found
east of Lake Ontario, with mainly dry weather across Western NY
outside of a few light upslope showers across higher terrain. It
will be quite breezy through this evening, with WNW winds gusting up
to 35 mph at times, especially southeast of Lake Ontario and across
higher terrain.

Surface low pressure over northern NY this afternoon will move east
across New England tonight, with an area of wrap around moisture
within the comma head of the cyclone moving back southeast across
the eastern Great Lakes tonight. A sharp mid level closed low will
cross southern Ontario this evening before moving to New England by
Sunday morning. Increasing forcing for ascent in the DPVA/height
falls ahead of the mid level closed low along with deeper wrap
around moisture will bring an increase in coverage of showers during
the mid to late evening across most of the area, with the possible
exception of far Western NY which will get missed by the deeper
moisture.

The most persistent and widespread showers will be found east of
Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday morning. 850MB temps drop to
near -5C overnight, which may allow for the very top of the Tug Hill
Plateau and western foothills of the Adirondacks to mix with, or
change to wet snow late tonight and Sunday morning. If the change to
wet snow occurs, there may be a coating of slush on the grass at the
highest elevations.

The rain, or rain/snow mix east of Lake Ontario will end by late
morning or midday Sunday. Otherwise, expect clearing skies from west
to east through the day, with plenty of sunshine across Western NY
and late day sun east of Lake Ontario. The airmass remains quite
cool, with highs in the 50s for most areas, and possibly close to 60
across some lower elevations away from the lakeshores.

High pressure will drift from the central Great Lakes to the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday night. Mainly clear skies, light winds, and a
cool airmass will support strong radiational cooling, with lows
dropping back into the 30s areawide, and even lower 30s in some of
the sheltered Southern Tier Valleys and North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging at all levels will crest east of the region
through Monday night with fair dry weather and warm temperatures.
Much more active weather expected Tuesday as a sharpening mid-level
trough pivots east across Ontario and the Great Lakes region. Deep
southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough axis will draw a very
warm, moist, and unstable spring airmass into the region with 850H
temps climbing to around +16C, PWATs to around 1.6", and SBCAPE
values between 1000-1500J/kg respectively. This will lead to shower
and thunderstorm development out ahead of the system`s strong cold
front, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A strong 50-60kt
LLJ will also provide plenty of shear to allow for more organized
storm structures, with the orientation of the jet generally parallel
to the front favoring linear storm segments. Overall this setup
looks supportive of localized strong thunderstorm wind gusts, hail,
and heavy rain...Though still a fair amount of uncertainty in these
details, in addition to potential lake shadowing in some areas and
the amount of cloud cover/stabilization preceding this activity, but
will continue to closely monitor.

The region should quickly dry out later Tuesday night with the
arrival of the cold front and significantly drier air from the
northwest. Likewise, temperatures will tumble back towards more
seasonable readings in the 40s (WNY) and 30s (North
Country) overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief period of low-amplitude ridging will provide cooler, but
mainly dry weather Wednesday through Wednesday night. A phasing
shortwave pattern over the nation`s midsection will then crawl
eastward and lead to unsettled weather Thursday into Friday night,
though the wettest period in this timeframe will likely come
Thursday night as low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley and
across the eastern Great Lakes.

While the first half of the weekend looks to be generally drier, it
will also be considerably cooler with continued low-end chances for
precip as the deepening trough continues to dig southward out of
Canada and into the eastern CONUS, possibly closing off just north
of the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move from northern NY this afternoon east across
New England through tonight, with the associated mid level closed
low passing just north of the area this evening. Wrap around
moisture and forcing from this system will maintain fairly
widespread showers east of Lake Ontario this afternoon through
Sunday morning with widespread IFR in low stratus and areas of fog
and BR. The rain may mix with some wet snow late tonight and Sunday
morning across the highest elevations. The rain or rain/snow mix
will end by late morning or midday east of Lake Ontario, with a
return to VFR in the afternoon as cloud cover scatters out.

Farther west, expect another round of showers through the first half
of tonight, especially across the Genesee Valley and western Finger
Lakes. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue, with some IFR across higher
terrain. The rain showers will end overnight, and clouds will
scatter out from west to east late tonight and Sunday morning with a
return to VFR.

It will remain quite breezy this afternoon through tonight, with WNW
gusts in the 25-30 knot range.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated brief/local restrictions.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing late.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern NY this afternoon will move east across
New England tonight, with a much cooler airmass pouring back into
the eastern Great Lakes. Moderate to strong WNW flow will bring
higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Ontario through
tonight before winds gradually diminish Sunday afternoon and
evening. Lower end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on
Lake Erie through tonight before diminishing Sunday. High pressure
will then build over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night through
Monday, with a brief period of light winds light winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock