Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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807
FXUS61 KBUF 120904
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
504 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning clouds and scattered showers across portions of the
area will end, allowing for increasing amounts of sunshine today.
Low pressure moving north along the eastern seaboard will then
spread clouds back into the area overnight through Monday, with rain
showers spreading into the eastern Lake Ontario region and Central
NY, possibly as far west as the Genesee Valley. A ridge of high
pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday, with
a return to dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A complex synoptic pattern evolution will evolve over the eastern US
over the next few days. A mid level closed low will continue to
drift east to Central NY today, then reverse course and move back
west to Western NY tonight before making a cyclonic loop into the
Mid Atlantic as it interacts with another low moving north along the
eastern seaboard. Today will feature the best weather of the long
weekend, with the east coast low spreading unsettled weather back
into the region later tonight and Monday.

Radar imagery showing a shrinking area of showers across the Finger
Lakes and Genesee Valley early this morning. These showers are
focusing along a weakening inverted trough, which will drift back
westward early this morning. The remaining area of showers will move
back west across the Finger Lakes into portions of the Genesee
Valley and Southern Tier, continuing to weaken and shrink with time.
Expect the last of the showers to dissipate by mid to late morning,
leaving dry weather to prevail the rest of today. An area of clouds
associated with the inverted trough will also tend to shrink today,
with morning clouds across Western and Central NY giving way to
increasing sunshine this afternoon.

Tonight, the east coast low will continue to move north towards the
Delmarva, with persistent easterly flow poleward of the system
drawing Atlantic moisture back westward across NY State. Clouds will
increase from east to west, with rain showers developing overnight
across the eastern Lake Ontario region, Central NY, and the Finger
Lakes. The rain may reach as far west as the Genesee Valley by
daybreak Monday, with dry weather persisting across Western NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will be possible for Monday, mainly east of the Genesee
Valley, with increasing potential for rain further to the east.
This will occur as the northwestern edge of showers/rain
associated with a coastal sfc low pushes into CNY. High pressure
over northern New England and eastern Quebec will help limit
the northern track of the sfc low, while a ridge building in
from the west will prevent the system and rain from pushing
farther west. Showers will taper off from west to east through
the afternoon on Monday and into the early morning hours of
Tuesday.

A ridge will build into the region starting Monday night, and a
surface high will track southeast into the upper Great Lakes through
Wednesday morning. This will bring dry weather through the remainder
of the period. A cold front, with little to no moisture will track
across the region on Tuesday night, resulting in cooling
temperatures, especially as the area of high pressure builds
southeast out of Canada.

Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will start the period out with
highs firmly above normal in the low to upper 60s with a few low 70s
also possible. Behind the passing cold front on Tuesday night,
temperatures for Wednesday afternoon will drop below normal into the
low to mid 50s for most areas, where they will also remain for the
afternoon on Thursday. Overnight MinTs should cool enough on
Wednesday and Thursday night to have the potential for frost/freeze
conditions inland from the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and a ridge over the region to start the period
will continue the dry weather through at least Friday afternoon.
An approaching warm front will start to increase the potential
for showers starting later Friday evening and into the weekend.
There is still plenty of uncertainty among guidance for timing
and amount of rain with the front.

Temperatures will remain cool on Friday, but warm to above normal
for the weekend behind the passing warm front.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An inverted trough and mid level closed low will continue to support
an area of showers across the Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley early
this morning. The last of the showers across the Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes will end by mid to late morning, with dry
weather then prevailing areawide for the rest of today into this
evening. An area of stratus will continue to drift westward early
this morning with areas of MVFR for lower elevations and IFR higher
terrain across portions of Western and Central NY. Most areas will
return to VFR by late morning.

Tonight, low pressure will continue to move north along the eastern
seaboard. Atlantic moisture will spread back westward across NY
State overnight, with showers spreading back into the eastern Lake
Ontario region and Central NY. The showers may reach as far west as
the Genesee Valley by daybreak Monday. Low stratus will also spread
westward, with CIGS deteriorating to MVFR lower elevations and IFR
higher terrain overnight through Monday morning from east to west.

Outlook...

Monday...Widespread low stratus with MVFR lower elevations and IFR
higher terrain. Showers likely, mainly along and east of the Genesee
Valley.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR CIGS with a slight chance of showers southeast
of the lakes.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will continue to move north just offshore of the
eastern seaboard today through Monday, while high pressure drifts
from Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes. The pressure gradient
between the two will produce moderate east/northeast winds on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario over the next few days. This will produce
Small Craft Advisory conditions on the western half of Lake Ontario
later today into this evening, and very choppy conditions for the
rest of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

Very choppy conditions will continue on both lakes Monday, with some
potential for low end Small Craft Advisory conditions if stronger
wind guidance verifies. A ridge of high pressure will build into the
Great Lakes Tuesday, with winds becoming northwest and diminishing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock