Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
773 FXUS61 KBUF 020539 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1239 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence increasing in snow timing Friday-Friday night, followed by impactful gusty winds and dangerously low wind chills Friday night through the weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake effect snow returns for Tuesday through Thursday. 2) Widespread snow Friday, blustery and turning much colder Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake effect snow returns for Tuesday through Thursday. A shortwave trough will dive southeast across the Great Lakes today, reaching the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday through Wednesday night, causing 850 mb temperatures to drop down to around -15C, along with introducing moderate synoptic moisture. Some minor general snow will develop, but antecedent dry environment and weak forcing precludes any meaningful snow accumulation with totals under an inch. Initial west-southwest flow will develop a lake effect snow band east of Lake Ontario Tuesday. Low level flow will veer west in the wake of the shortwave, settling the lake snows southward towards the southern and southeastern shoreline Wednesday. The greatest snowfall accumulations, and impacts will occur closer to the south shore of Lake Ontario and as far east as the western Tug Hill, as boundary layer winds will remain on the lighter side. Oscillation of the lake band should keep snowfall amounts on the order of a few inches in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. A west to northwest wind may support the snowband to linger into Thursday off Lake Ontario with additional localized accumulations possible. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deep trough of low pressure aloft, closed off at less than 500 dm at 500 hPa will drop across the Great Lakes region Friday -Friday night. At the surface a deepening surface low will track across the northern Great Lakes and to New England, dragging a cold front across our region Friday afternoon or Friday night. Ahead of this clipper system widespread snow is expected to advance across our region. The progressive nature of this clipper system will likely spread only a few inches of snow for the downslope Genesee Valley...with higher amounts for counties east of Lake Erie and the eastern Lake Ontario region. Behind this clipper it will become breezy with a tightening surface pressure gradient and strong cold air advection supporting winds gusting over 30 mph Friday night into Saturday. This will bring blowing and drifting snow, with reduced visibilities Friday night and into Saturday. Additionally within the cold air advection Friday night and into Saturday lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario could add several additional inches of snow upon what has already fallen. This will largely be driven by available synoptic moisture, as there are model hints that the deeper moisture may remain well to the north of the Lake...with much less lake effect snow activity. Saturday will be another very cold day with single digit highs. This coupled with the northwesterly breeze, wind chill values will plummet well below zero...to perhaps into the extreme cold warning range for the North Country. The -20 to -25 Celsius airmass Saturday night will allow for temperatures to plummet to near or below zero...and if we obtain any clearing...possibly another night with negative 20 values for the North Country. At this juncture NBM probabilities for temperatures of at least -10F range from 60 to 90% across the Tug Hill and traditionally colder spots of the North Country for Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clear skies and VFR through 07z, forecast soundings and short term model guidance suggest low stratus will expand overnight into Monday morning with shallow lake moisture trapped beneath a steep subsidence inversion. This will allow for MVFR CIGS to become more prevalent overnight through Monday morning. The low stratus will mix out by late morning or midday Monday, with most areas returning to VFR. Outlook... Tuesday...MVFR/local IFR with a few snow showers, especially east of the lakes. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers possible. Thursday...Areas of IFR in lake effect snow, especially east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Friday...IFR or below in widespread snow and blowing snow. && .MARINE... A narrow ridge of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes will bring a period of generally lighter winds and diminished wave action through Monday. A weak trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday with some increase in wind, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The next period of more windy conditions will develop Thursday night and continue Friday through Saturday as a strong arctic cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, producing higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions that peak Friday through Friday night on Lake Ontario. Of note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas/TMA AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA