Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
169 FXUS61 KBUF 082333 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 733 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity will begin to build across our region through the weekend and into early next week, with heat index values possibly reaching the mid 90s through the Lake Plain and Finger Lakes region by Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cu field and any remaining showers will dissipate this evening. Patchy valley fog is possible in the river valleys across the western Southern Tier tonight. High pressure will bring mainly dry weather through the weekend, there will also be a slow warming trend across the forecast area as 850mb temperatures climb about 2 degrees C each day. Subsequently, there will also be a small uptick in moisture, with heat indices reaching the low 90s by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper level ridge and surface high will be anchored off the Northeast U.S. coastline Monday through Tuesday. A longwave trough will move into the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes region. A corridor of deep moisture will move eastward across the central Great Lakes Monday, then pivot west to east and remain north of the forecast area Tuesday. While the main axis of moisture will be north, humidity levels will climb across the region. The upper level ridge and high pressure will still maintain mostly fair weather Monday through Tuesday, however with the uptick in moisture Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along lake breezes and inland from the Lakes. Heat indices may reach the low 90s Monday and approach the mid 90s by Tuesday. There still remains uncertainty with regards to the amount of cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An anomalously strong ridge over the Northeast will move into the northern Atlantic and flow aloft will become westerly across the forecast area. A weak cold front/sfc trough axis will approach the forecast area Tuesday night while an axis of deep moisture moves overhead. This axis will linger across the region through Thursday, with much needed chances for showers and storms Wednesday through Thursday. Another cold front may reach the forecast area Friday and bring a period of dry weather. Warm weather will continue but cloud cover and precipitation will likely reduce heat indices and high temperatures from some. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail across western and north-central NY through Saturday. Patchy valley fog is possible late tonight. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. MVFR/VFR possible with a low chance of IFR or below. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure anchored along the eastern seaboard through the weekend, winds will remain mainly light, fluctuating between southerly and easterly. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Thomas NEAR TERM...AR/HSK SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR/HSK MARINE...AR/Thomas