411
FXUS61 KBUF 032146
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
546 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will pass through this evening will bring
seasonable conditions later tonight and Friday. The upcoming weekend
promises to be unsettled with another soaking rain Saturday into at
least Sunday morning. A shot of cold air Monday night into Tuesday
will likely bring snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winds will veer northwest and continue to weaken behind a secondary
cold front that will move southeast across western and northcentral
NY this evening, before stalling out over the Mid Atlantic region
later tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure will build east into the
central Great Lakes. Heights rise slightly overnight but there will
be a wave along the front that brushes the far south with thicker
clouds and showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
500 mb ridging with heights up around 5760 meters are expected
Friday before heights gradually fall in southwest flow regime
Saturday and Sunday.

A wave of low pressure pushes up the Ohio River Valley and into
the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night and Saturday bringing a
slug of rain to the area.l A second wave of low pressure arrives
along the slow moving WSW-ENE boundary by Saturday night with
yet another wave of rain. 3 day rainfall ending Sunday morning
should be heaviest far southwest New York and lightest in the
Watertown area. 25th-75th percentile PQPF in Watertown area is
0.75-1.50", and 1.75-2.50" around Jamestown. For Buffalo the
range is 1-2".

Significant cooling and drying starts on Sunday with 850 mb
temps falling to about -7C by evening and there is an outside
chance that the precipitation ends as a mix Sunday afternoon in
the southern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep low with 500 mb center around 5200 meters crosses Michigan
Monday and New York on Tuesday, with strong surge of cold air
behind it in northwest flow regime. Dynamics are strong and
height falls of 150 meters or more are expected over western New
York by early Tuesday.

It will be cool and dry Sunday night, but a potent cold front
will cross area Monday with 850 mb temps plunging past -10C
Monday evening on their way to -14 to -16C by Tuesday morning.
Strong cold advection and lake enhanced snow showers are on tap
and the potential for a Huron to Erie snow band forming south of
Buffalo. For now we have likely snow showers but it bears
watching for potential accumulations.

Dramatic height rises, perhaps 150 to 200 meters, are on tap for
Wednesday. There after uncertainty increases quite a bit for
Thursday as timing on another trough is quite different amongst
the various global model systems.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening will remain in place for most of
the TAF sites through the overnight. The exception will be across
the Southern Tier where thickening clouds will include the potential
for MVFR/IFR cigs at sites like KJHW.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions likely in scattered to numerous
rain showers.
Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers.
Tuesday...Restrictions from snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong southwest/west as the front passes. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will remain in place into the evening hours,
with the nearshore waters from Irondequoit Bay to the St Lawrence
River remaining rough until about 06Z.

Gentle to moderate breezes Friday morning will continue to weaken
during the afternoon, as surface high pressure will track just to
the north of Lake Ontario.

As an area of low pressure approaches and moves just south of the
Lower Great lakes late Friday night and Saturday morning, an
easterly flow will freshen over the region. This will keep the
highest wave action in Canadian waters until around midday
Saturday when winds backing to the south southwest will target
the eastern third of Lake Ontario with potential Small Craft
Advisory conditions Saturday afternoon through the first half of
Saturday night. Winds and waves remain elevated (especially
Lake Ontario) Sunday, however should remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels to close out the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven/JM
NEAR TERM...Craven/JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Craven
MARINE...Craven/JM/RSH