194
FXUS61 KBUF 240708
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
308 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A muggy warm airmass will linger across the area early this morning
and throughout the day today, supporting another hot and humid day
today. A cold front will pass south across the area late today and
tonight, sparking a few isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, temperatures will not be as
hot for the later half of the week, though it will continue to
remain on the muggy side with the possibility for showers and
thunderstorms each day through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong ridge lying across the East Coast this morning, will
gradually shrink towards the Mid-Atlantic today making way for a
cold front`s arrival this afternoon and evening. Ahead of its
arrival, expect one more day of well above normal temperatures
though should say it won`t be as hot as it has been previously due
to the retreating high. This being said, highs today will climb up
into the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices reaching well into
the 90s for most areas away from the immediate lakeshores and low
100s again in the normally warmer areas from just south of Lake
Ontario eastward into Central New York and the valleys of the Finger
Lakes. Similar to the previous couple of days, a brisk southwest
wind off of Lakes Erie and Ontario will keep the immediate Buffalo
Metro area and areas east of Lake Ontario on the cooler side.

Heading into this afternoon, the aforementioned cold front extending
south from a surface low passing overtop of the ridge will pass
across the Great Lakes. As it approaches, expect an increase in
cloud cover and a slight chance for a few isolated thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings continue to
suggest a strong cap across much of the area with very warm mid-
level temperatures. Much of the deep moist convection will stay
across southern Ontario, with the best chance of scattered storms
lying across the northern areas of New York, especially across the
Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks. For areas northeast
of Lake Erie will remain mainly dry due to lake shadowing with just
a very low chance of an isolated thunderstorm well inland.

Tonight, the front will position itself near the New York and
Pennsylvania state line. Allowing for not only the chances for
showers and thunderstorms to fizzle out, but also provide some much
needed relief in temperatures and humidity. Temperatures overnight
will be a good 5 degrees cooler, with lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The passing cold front from Tuesday night will settle just south of
the NY/PA border where it will stall and linger into Thursday
afternoon. The most notable change with the front will be the cooler
temperatures and decreased humidity.

As the cold front stalls just south of the NY/PA border, most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity should remain south of the Buffalo
forecast area. Even so, some showers/storms into the western
Southern Tier will be possible with the close proximity of the
front. A few scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out across the rest of WNY, but the potential is low. Some of
the showers/storms may produce heavy downpours, with the best
chance for this across the western Southern Tier.

CAPE values will remain the greatest toward the NY/PA border for the
day on Wednesday while shear values will be greater farther north.
Thus as of right now, it doesn`t appear that there will be much of a
severe thunderstorm potential for Wednesday. There are some timing
issues still among the different guidance, and any fluctuations
farther north with the stalling of the front will increase the
potential for showers/storms and heavier rainfall.

Wednesday night should be mostly dry with cooler temperatures
compared to earlier in the week.

Thursday, shower activity increases from the south and the west as
the earlier stalled frontal boundary starts to push north as a warm
front. PWat values increase back to over 1.50" with some guidance
pushing values up to 2.00". Showers and embedded thunderstorms will
be possible through the night on Thursday and into the morning on
Friday. This will occur as a few waves of weak low pressure track
across the Great Lakes along the frontal boundary. With the influx
of moisture and forcing across the area, some of the showers and
thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours at times. WPC has the
entire forecast area south of Lake Ontario in a `Marginal Risk` for
excessive rainfall for Thursday into early Friday morning.

Temperatures during the period will cool behind the passing frontal
boundary and will remain dependent on how far south the front tracks
before stalling. Wednesday afternoon highs will reach the low to
upper 80s, with temperatures a bit cooler to the mid 70s to low 80s
for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern for the long term period will have mainly a zonal flow
with periods of weak ridging and weak troughing in place through the
period. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at different
times as passing sfc lows and associated cold front track
near/across the forecast area.

The wettest portion of the period looks like Friday afternoon into
Saturday afternoon when a passing sfc low will track across southern
Ontario and the systems trough and cold front cross the forecast
area. The driest day, as of now, looks like ti will be on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm potential will increase starting on Monday
as another system tracks just north of the forecast area.

Temperatures for the period will be near to a few degrees above
normal for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this morning and will continue throughout
much of the day today. A weak cold front will drop south across the
region late this afternoon and tonight as a strong ridge aloft
settles south towards the Mid-Atlantic. Most areas will remain VFR
and on the drier side, however a few isolated thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out for late this afternoon and through this evening.

Lingering cloud cover associated with the cold front will lie across
the region tonight, with showers and thunderstorms ending. Overall,
conditions should remain VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...A few showers and thunderstorms likely
at times. Mainly VFR, with local/brief restrictions in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure settling southeast towards the Mid Atlantic
today, will allow low pressure to move east across central and
northern Ontario and Quebec. Little pressure gradient between these
two surface features will maintain light to moderate southwest winds
today supporting a moderate chop at times on both Lakes Erie and
Ontario.

A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low
will sag south across the area tonight, shifting winds to be
northeast Wednesday and lasting into the end of the week and
supporting at times a light to moderate chop. A few rounds of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms (and locally higher
gusts associated with the stronger storms) will be possible each day
starting today and lasting through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dome of heat settled over the Lower Great Lakes today with
temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing towards
record values. Below are the temperature records for our three
climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both Buffalo
and Rochester have been keeping temperature records since 1871,
and Watertown has been keeping temperature records since 1949.

...Date......Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

...June 24th......92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

...June 24th......96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

...June 24th......91/1999..........71/2013

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
CLIMATE...EAJ/Thomas