Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
907 FXUS61 KBUF 060011 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 811 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A few widely scattered showers will be possible tonight, otherwise dry weather is expected through Labor Day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A few widely scattered showers will be possible tonight, otherwise dry weather is expected through Labor Day. Our region will continue to be sandwiched in between a stalled upper low spinning over Newfoundland/Nova Scotia and a stout upper level ridge dominating over the central CONUS through Sunday morning, while surface high pressure just south of James Bay will continue to build south into the upper Great Lakes tonight. Our area will continue to be on the western fringe of the upper low, thus anytime a shortwave trough pinwheeling about the upper low moves over or near our area, there will be at least a small chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers. As of early this evening...a few of these are currently ongoing from the Saint Lawrence Valley into central NY in association with one such passing impulse. Cool advection will continue tonight with 850 mb temps getting down around +9C. With lake temps still sitting around +22/+23C, this will be enough to elicit a weak lake response overnight. Off Lake Erie a convergent NE to ENE flow will set up...with most of the activity expected to remain offshore. Meanwhile a N to NNE cross-lake flow over Lake Ontario will also produce some lake clouds south of that lake, and with an added boost from upslope flow, we may see a few widely scattered/scattered light lake enhanced showers develop... with the best chances for these found across the Finger Lakes region. Otherwise, most of the area will remain dry with comfortable sleeping weather. The upper low will finally begin to pull away later Sunday and Sunday night, while the upper level ridge axis builds a bit further east into the upper Great Lakes. Surface high pressure over the upper Great Lakes tonight will build south into the lower Great Lakes region for Sunday and Labor Day. This will end any lingering shower chances, with dry weather expected for the remainder of the long holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of this writing...a few widely scattered showers persist across the North Country attendant to a weak trough passing by just to our northeast. These will fade this evening with the loss of heating and the departure of the aforementioned trough. Otherwise we can expect largely dry/VFR conditions to start off the 00z TAF cycle...with a broken deck of mid-level VFR clouds continuing to make its way southward across WNY this evening. Cool advection will continue tonight with 850 mb temps getting down around +9C. With lake temps still sitting around +22/+23C, this will be enough to elicit a weak lake response overnight. A N to NNE cross- lake flow over Lake Ontario will produce some lake clouds south of that lake, and with an added boost from upslope flow, we may see a few widely scattered/scattered light lake enhanced showers develop...particularly across the Finger Lakes region. For the second half of tonight into Sunday morning, lake clouds will produce low-end VFR to MVFR CIGS across the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario, with some IFR/LIFR CIGS across the higher terrain south of the Thruway. While the increasing cloud cover should help to limit Southern Tier valley fog to a degree, low stratus may intersect the hilltops as well...with greatly reduced visibilities possible where this occurs. On Sunday...expect the above mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings across the lower elevations and IFR/LIFR ceilings across the higher terrain to gradually improve to VFR areawide by midday/early afternoon as renewed diurnal heating and mixing helps to mix out/break up the lower level moisture/cloud cover...with any lingering ceilings then scattering out during the rest of the day. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR each late night and early morning across the Southern Tier. Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Localized flight restrictions possible. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... High pressure will build south across the upper Great Lakes tonight, then into the lower Great Lakes region later Sunday. Although no SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the Labor Day weekend, northeasterly winds up to 15-17 knots will be possible on Lake Ontario from the second half of tonight through early afternoon Sunday as the surface pressure gradient briefly tightens on the southeastern periphery of the high as it builds toward the lower lakes. Waves of 2-3 feet will be possible for the southcentral and southeastern portions of Lake Ontario during this time. High pressure settles over the lower Great Lakes for the first part of the new work week, with mainly light winds and little to no wave action through at least Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM/JJR AVIATION...JM/JJR MARINE...JM