205
FXUS61 KBUF 101834
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
234 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at
least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend
with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

A weak secondary cold front will push south through the western
Southern Tier with just the chance for a few isolated showers there
this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the region
with dry, cooler, and less humid conditions through the end of the
work week.

Surface high pressure will move east into New England, with a
southerly return flow advecting a warmer and more humid airmass back
in across western and northcentral NY from southwest to northeast
through the day Saturday. This may lead to some scattered diurnally
driven convection across western NY Saturday afternoon, particularly
across the interior Southern Tier where the best moisture will be,
along with somewhat better forcing closer to a mid level shortwave
passing by just to our southeast. A cold front will then cross the
area sometime on Sunday...timing is still in question. This will
bring the next best chance for a round of showers and scattered
storms. At this point wind shear and instability both appear to be
modest, thus the severe threat looks low at this time. However, if
the frontal timing comes across the area at/near peak heating, the
thunderstorm potential could be greater. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS, a secondary cold front continues to exit our
region, with lingering MVFR stratus across the Southern Tier. These
lower clouds will dissipate through the late afternoon and evening
hours as an upstream surface high pressure draws a cooler and drier
airmass across the Lower Great Lakes.

This airmass will allow for nocturnal fog development, both through
the Black River valley and the valleys of the Southern Tier. This
IFR or lower fog may impact both the KART and KJHW airfields through
the night.

Surface high pressure will then ensure fair weather after morning
fog dissipates with VFR flight conditions and a light wind Friday.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Saturday midday...Dry weather and mainly
VFR expected. Early morning Southern Tier valley fog.

Saturday midday through Sunday...Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions possible.

Sunday Night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms with
locally lower flight conditions within convective activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Following a brief lull in the stronger winds on the lakes, winds are
beginning to freshen (W to NW 15-25 knots) on Lake Ontario ahead of
a backdoor cold front that will make southwesterly progress to
about the lower Saint Lawrence valley by this evening, before
stalling out. This will support SCAs on Lake Ontario through
late this evening, with SCAs lingering across eastern and
southeastern Lake Ontario into a portion of the overnight.

Pressure gradient and winds off the deck will weaken second half of
tonight as high pressure builds in from the west, with light winds
and negligible waves Friday through Friday night. South to southwest
flow will increase some over the weekend, however conditions are
expected to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for LOZ044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JM