115
FXUS61 KBUF 021839
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible through early
this evening. Otherwise...dry weather and warm conditions expected
through Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday,
turning cooler and quite breezy Friday with unsettled weather
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cu-field expanding across far WNY with scattered diurnally driven
showers, even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible this
afternoon. The best chance for showers or a stronger storm will
be found along any lake breeze boundary. The weak upper-level
low responsible for this activity will slowly drift north into
Quebec this evening. It will then get absorbed by the incoming
trough dropping southeast out of the Canadian Prairies tonight
and Wednesday.

Otherwise...most locales will see dry weather today and seasonable
temps with a range of 70s across the area.

Tonight...weak surface high pressure will continue to deliver dry
weather. Any remaining shower activity after sunset will quickly die
off. Lows mainly in the 50s, with the cooler spots seeing readings
in the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure drifts east to the coast Wednesday but will
continue to support dry quiet weather. A southerly breeze will help
to push temps firmly into the 70s, to low 80s in the Genesee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into Thursday, an anomalous sub-5400 m upper level low will
position itself over the upper Great Lakes and northern Ontario. As
the surface low begins to occlude, a cold front with the chance of
rain showers and gusty winds through early afternoon across western
NY and into the late afternoon and evening for north-central NY. A
secondary, potent shortwave will begin to round the base of the
trough Thursday night bringing strong southwest winds Friday across
Lake Erie into the Niagara Frontier as well as another round of
showers and storms Friday night.

Showers and Thunderstorms: Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds
look to be the main hazards with these storms Thursday. A strong
flow pattern will be present with fairly moist vertical profiles
that may support vertical momentum transfer to the surface. The
overall environment will be less impressive with MLCAPE around 500
J/kg and meager mid-level lapse rates around 5-6 C/km. With a
progressive front and latest FFG from the local RFCs being high with
dry soils, flooding is not anticipated, but the potential for
multiple rounds of storms will need to be monitored with any pre-
frontal convection as well as storms closer to the frontal forcing.
Latest NBM probability of exceeding 0.5" of precipitation remains
high around 50-75%, but probabilities drastically drop off when
looking at a threshold of 1.0" across western NY. However. portions
of the Tug Hill and eastward show the greatest potential for
exceeding 1.0" of precipitation.

Gusty Winds: Ahead of Thursday`s cold front, southerly flow aloft
with tightening gradients will lead to gusty winds across much of
western NY. The greater concern looks to be with the secondary
shortwave passing through Friday with southwest winds extending up
Lake Erie into the Niagara Frontier. Latest NAEFS and EC guidance
shows wind speeds aloft exceeding the climatological 98th percentile
value for early September exceeding 50 kt. Deterministic EC and GFS
from the latest run shows a resultant 993 mb deepening over Lake
Huron as the shortwave passes through which would be suggestive of a
potential advisory level event across the area. Ensemble members are
still a little mixed with magnitude of the low and exact position as
it crosses through the central Great Lakes. While winds aloft have
been trending upward, one thing to consider is the potential for a
more westward track as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough
lifting farther north into Canada that may spare portions of the CWA
for seeing these stronger winds Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large scale troughing will continue across the Great Lakes region
and northward as a surface low looks to be positioned east of James
Bay. Uncertainties remain with the low progression eastward with
Friday`s embedded shortwave and transition from the occluded low.
Additional showers will be located along the associated cold front
Saturday extending from northern NY southwest through the Finger
Lakes region. Lake enhanced showers will also be possible off Lakes
Erie and Ontario in the post-frontal flow with shallow ELs, but
still moist boundary layer through early Sunday. Height rises are
expected headed into Monday as high pressure and drier weather
arrive to start next week, but any warm up will be gradual and short-
lived as the overall troughing pattern will remain across the
northeast US.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR but there is a low chance of a shower or isolated
thunderstorm this afternoon. Confidence in any of this activity
impacting area terminals is low at this time.

Shower potential ends tonight with mainly VFR. River valley fog is
possible in the Southern Tier overnight with localized IFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds
also possible with the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Spotty lake induced showers east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal waves are expected through Wednesday as high
pressure drifts east and off the New England coastline.

A cold front will then cross the area between Thursday and Thursday
night...with increasing southerlies to southwesterlies expected out
ahead of the front Thursday...and fairly brisk southwesterlies to
westerlies following in its wake Friday and Saturday. Eastern
portions of Lake Erie and western Ontario could see conditions reach
low-end SCA criteria for a time Thursday...with more widespread
advisory-level conditions then appearing more likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR