425
FXUS61 KBUF 062331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry weather will continue tonight through Tuesday.

2) A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through
Wednesday night, bringing the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will continue tonight through Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build south across the Great Lakes region
tonight through Labor Day before drifting to the eastern seaboard by
Tuesday. This will maintain dry and tranquil weather across the
region through Tuesday.

Cool low level northerly flow may produce a few more lake effect
clouds tonight through Monday morning over and south of Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, radiational cooling and light winds will allow
some fog to develop overnight through Monday morning in the valleys
of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. There may be some patchy thin
fog elsewhere, but the most prevalent fog will be across the
Southern Tier. Expect a similar distribution of fog again late
Monday night through Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will be quite cool tonight, dropping back into the
lower 50s on the lake plains and mid 40s across the Southern Tier
valleys and North Country. A day to day warming trend will then
develop Monday through the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday through Wednesday night, bringing the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region.

A sharp mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec
Wednesday through Wednesday night, with the southern extent of
height falls spreading east across the Great Lakes region. A narrow
axis of greater moisture will be advected into the eastern Great
Lakes just ahead of the system, with surface dewpoints rising into
the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday afternoon and contributing to at
least some instability. A pre-frontal trough is forecast to advance
east across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday
night, with some timing differences still showing in latest model
guidance.

Increasing moisture and forcing for ascent along and ahead of the
mid level trough and pre-frontal trough will bring increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Shear will increase as a belt of enhanced mid level
flow near the base of the trough moves into the area. There may be
at least some limited severe potential if the timing of forcing
aligns with the diurnal heating cycle and sufficient instability
develops.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move across the region tonight. Mostly
clear skies, calm winds, and a soggy ground will support radiational
cooling across the region. VFR conditions will continue this
evening, then patchy fog is expected to develop across interior
valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes overnight. IFR or
below conditions are expected late tonight at KJHW. Fog will
dissipate Monday morning and VFR conditions are expected the rest of
the day.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.
Localized flight restrictions possible.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will then settle overhead tonight through Monday,
with diminishing winds and improving boating conditions on the
lower Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday.

A cold front will then approach the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
before crossing the area Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds
will increase both ahead and behind this cold front, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions likely on both lakes Wednesday through
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock