406
FXUS61 KBUF 151844
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass just north of the area tonight, with showers
and thunderstorms moving from west to east into this evening. The
rain will taper off later this evening following the passage of a
cold front. The low will continue to strengthen over New England
tonight through Sunday, producing gusty winds across the eastern
Great Lakes. Colder air behind the system will also bring lake
effect snow showers southeast of the lakes Sunday through Monday,
and some upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario
with light to locally moderate accumulations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface low over Lake Superior will move towards northern New
England tonight. A wavy warm front stretches to western NY. A deep
southerly flow in the warm sector will allow temperatures to climb
into the 50s behind the front today. Elevated convection has
developed across southern Ontario and will move across the forecast
area into early this evening. The 12z BUF and DTX soundings show
elevated instability with a strengthening wind field aloft. A strong
inversion will keep the strongest winds aloft, however thunderstorms
with hail cores have developed across the Niagara Frontier this
afternoon. Pea size hail was reported in Niagara county earlier this
afternoon. This activity will move east into this evening.

Attention turns to an approaching cold front across the Ohio Valley
this afternoon. Increasing large scale ascent and deeper moisture
from the south will support more widespread showers across the
forecast area this evening. The front will move across the forecast
area this evening with strong cold air advection in its wake. The
front will be on the coat tails of an exiting low level jet max and
gusty winds are expected behind the front as it tracks eastward.
Wind gusts will average 30 to 40 mph, however there are low
probabilities that wind gusts could reach 45 mph from the Lake Erie
shoreline across the Niagara Frontier and along the southern shore
of Lake Ontario tonight. Winds are expected to weaken some
overnight, however they will remain elevated (25-35 mph) into Sunday
morning. Moisture will pull away from the region as the low moves
into northern New England late tonight. Upslope showers with lake
enhancement will support showers lingering across the western
Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. Rain will transition to snow
showers across the higher terrain approaching daybreak. Little to no
accumulation is expected.

The mid-level trough and closed 500mb low will dig into the
Northeast Sunday. Northwest flow will continue to usher in cool air
across the forecast area with 850mb temperatures decreasing to -9C
to -7C by Sunday afternoon. Steepening lapse rates and an associated
PV anomaly will support gusty winds across the region. Wind gusts of
35 to 45 mph are possible Sunday afternoon with the strongest wind
gusts from Monroe to Oswego counties and near the lakeshores. Lake
effect snow showers are expected east of the Lakes, with the main
focus across the western Southern Tier and the Eastern Lake Ontario
region. Snow showers are expected to develop between lake effect
bands through the afternoon. Surface temperatures will be marginal
through the day with mid to upper 30s across the lake plains to the
low 30s across the higher terrain. Sudden reductions in visibility
are possible in any snow showers. Accumulating snow will be focused
on the higher terrain with 1-2" possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday evening a cold west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow
(850 mb temps of -8C to -10C) will be firmly entrenched across the
Lower Great Lakes...and this in tandem with upstream connections to
Lake Huron/Georgian Bay will support multiple bands of lake effect
snow east-southeast and southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The
short term guidance suite generally suggests that the most
persistent snows off Lake Erie should lie somewhere between
Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties and northwestern PA...while those
off Lake Ontario should be somewhere across the Orleans-Ontario
county corridor...though some uncertainty still lingers with the
exact placement of the bands as these may be moving around some over
time. Further east...some upsloping should also lead to some snow
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks.
In all of the above cases...fresh snowfall accums appear to be on
the order of a few inches...with little snow falling outside of the
main areas of lake enhancement and upsloping. Otherwise we can
expect a colder night (lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s) with still-
windy conditions (with possible gusts to 40-45 mph along the south
shore of Lake Ontario) early gradually subsiding as we push through
the night.

Monday through Tuesday the large-scale flow will become more
westerly again...with our airmass gradually warming aloft as high
pressure and drier air over the Ohio Valley builds northeastward and
across our region. This will result in the lake snows lifting a bit
further northward and gradually diminishing from west to east
through this time...though some lingering weak lake effect snow and
rain showers may linger through late Tuesday afternoon east-
southeast of Lake Ontario. Expect the lake snows to generally
produce another inch or two both Monday and Monday night...with
their expected movement/weakening nature and increasingly marginal
daytime temperatures on Monday likely helping to keep these from
being much more than a nuisance. Some additional upslope snows will
also be possible on Monday east of Lake Ontario...though any accums
from these should also be minor.

By later Tuesday another wave of low pressure will be making its way
across the Ohio Valley...with a leading slug of warm air advection
bringing an increase in clouds and possibly a few light rain or snow
showers to the Southern Tier as it weakens and slides by to our
south later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Aside from this and the
diminishing lake effect...the Monday-Tuesday period should otherwise
be dry...with the gradual warming of our airmass allowing highs to
mostly climb back into the mid 30s to lower 40s by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Behind Tuesday night`s weak system...high pressure looks to build
across our region and bring a return to dry weather for Wednesday
and possibly Thursday. Model guidance then diverges markedly on the
handling of the next system lifting northeast out of the southern
Plains states and toward our region during the last couple days of
this period...however in general this notably warmer system should
bring increased probabilities for plain rain Friday and Saturday...
along with temperatures climbing to a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Impactful period for aviation tonight through Sunday as low pressure
moves north of the region. A warm front and strong low-level jet
will move across western NY and north-central NY this evening.
Increasing ascent and moisture coupled with elevated instability
will support showers and thunderstorms across the region into this
evening. A brief period of low level wind shear is possible across
western NY. A cold front across the Ohio Valley will move across
western NY this evening, and north-central NY later tonight and
strong cold air advection and gusty winds are expected across the
region. Widespread showers will end from west to east overnight,
with lingering upslope showers with lake enhancement across the
Southern Tier tonight. Cool, northwest flow will continue into
Sunday and snow showers and lake effect snow showers are expected.

Ceilings will lower and produce MVFR/IFR conditions ahead of the
cold front this evening. Flight conditions will improve to MVFR/low-
end VFR behind the cold front, however snow showers are possible and
may result in lower flight restrictions especially at KJHW and KART
through Sunday morning.


Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect rain/snow showers southeast
of the lakes, and upslope snow across higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario.

Sunday night through Monday...MVFR/local IFR with lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes and upslope snow showers across
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light lake effect rain/wet snow
showers southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Deepening low pressure will pass just north of Lake Ontario tonight,
with this low then deepening further over New England Sunday before
reaching the Canadian Maritimes Monday. Southerly winds will
increase from west to east today, with winds then veering to the WNW
and ramping up significantly tonight through Sunday. Lower end gales
are expected on Lake Ontario late tonight through Sunday night, with
high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie. Elevated
winds and high end Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue on
both lakes Monday before high pressure begins to build into the
Great Lakes Tuesday with diminishing winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM
         EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Monday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK