096
FXUS61 KBUF 241818
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
218 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad, slow moving upper level low will continue to spin over New
England today, producing occasional rain across the region. The
upper level low will finally make some progress moving east into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight, with showers tapering off overnight.
Another round of scattered showers is expected Sunday afternoon and
evening as one final upper level trough moves across the eastern
Great Lakes. High pressure will then bring mainly dry and somewhat
warmer weather for Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Earlier drizzle and more scattered showers have transitioned to more
diurnally driven popcorn type showers this afternoon. This will
continue over the area through the afternoon with the daytime
heating and a passing trough over the region. Temperatures
during the afternoon will remain well below normal with values
only into the low to upper 50s for most areas, with some upper
40s possible for the Tug Hill and western ADKs.

Tonight, showers will taper off as daytime heating wanes during the
early evening hours. The shortwave trough passing over the area will
also shift to the southeast tonight as well, further reducing the
potential for showers. Clouds will slowly diminish in coverage from
west to east overnight. Overnight lows will dip to the low to mid
40s.

Sunday, dry conditions in the morning are expected. Showers will
develop in the late morning hours and continue into the afternoon as
daytime heating increases and as another passing shortwave trough
crosses the area. An embedded thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out
during the afternoon on Sunday. Temperatures warm a bit, but remain
below normal with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for
most of the areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The final mid level trough/axis of moisture around an Atlantic
coastal low will drop across Canada and over the North Country and
the northern Finger Lakes Sunday night and Monday with a few
showers, and an isolated thunderstorm Monday. Anticyclonic flow
associated with an area of high pressure advancing into our region
coupled with mid level subsidence will bring fair weather Monday to
most of WNY, with this period of quiet weather then expanding to the
remainder of the CWA Monday night and through much of Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed low will again rotate across our region this period, but
unlike this past low...this system will be not nearly as cold, and
will have a more progressive motion.

A warm front will push towards the Ohio Valley, with isentropic lift
rain showers reaching our region by daybreak Wednesday, with a slug
of moisture/rain moving across our region on Thursday coupled with
the warm frontal passage. Modest instability with this warm front
may produce a few thunderstorms Thursday.

The main upper level low will swing its axis across our region
Friday, with additional showers. Another shortwave dropping down
across the Great Lakes region on the heals of this upper level low
will carve a deep trough over our region Saturday, the final day of
the month. Will forecast lower than NBM temperatures to account for
this anomalous deep trough, with chances for rain showers through
the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A broad, deep upper level low will continue to spin over New England
today, with the western flank of the system still impacting the
eastern Great Lakes. Rain coverage will be a little lower today than
the past few days, but there will still be numerous showers and
areas of light rain through this evening. Rain will occasionally
drop VSBY to MVFR, with local IFR in any moderate showers.
MVFR to VFR CIGS, with most lower elevation locations becoming VFR
this evening, and higher terrain trending towards MVFR.

Tonight, showers will gradually diminish, with most areas becoming
dry overnight. The lower elevations of Western NY will be mainly
VFR, with areas of MVFR CIGS lingering across higher terrain, and
south and east of Lake Ontario.

Sunday, late morning and afternoon diurnal showers are expected once
again. CIGS & VSBY down to MVFR will be possible at times,
especially if there is brief heavier shower.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will drift from Maine eastward into the Canadian
Maritimes through Sunday. This will continue to support elevated
westerly winds, especially on Lake Erie where Small Craft Advisory
conditions will continue much of the time through early this
evening. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Ontario, but still
enough to produce a moderate chop.

Sunday, west winds in the 10-15 knot range will continue to produce
a moderate chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. High pressure will
then build into the Great Lakes on Memorial Day, with light winds
and less wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock