326
FXUS61 KBUF 192357
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
757 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure and cold front will approach and cross the
region tonight and Wednesday, with widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. Dry weather will return late in the week as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will continue to advance into the region through
tonight, combining with a surface wave/trough to draw a pronounced
moisture axis northward into the region. Better overall organization
of the surface wave will strengthen the low level jet and warm
advective pattern into the region. Widespread showers will continue
to blossom into the region with locally heavy rainfall the main
concern as precipitable water values near 2 inches within the
moisture axis. The heaviest rain will likely fall from the I-90
corridor northward to Lake Ontario where ascent will be maximized,
with rainfall amounts potentially reaching or exceeding an inch,
especially where any embedded thunderstorms occur. Due to the dry
antecedent conditions, there is a low risk for flooding and
rains should be largely be beneficial across the area.

Cold front slides through the region late tonight and Wednesday
morning. The axis of heavier rainfall will shift eastward
toward the Finger Lakes with a better potential for embedded
thunderstorms, as the axis of surface based instability shifts east
within the warm sector ahead of the front. Shear profiles are
relatively unfavorable, so the severe risk looks limited.

The rest of the day Wednesday into Wednesday night will be
characterized by a respectable wind shift to a northerly component
with decreasing chances of precipitation from northwest to
southeast. A few stray showers still possible Wednesday night
across the Southern Tier, but the inbound cooler and less humid
air mass should get rid of the precipitation threat overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Long wave ridge centered over the southwest CONUS reaches north into
Great Lakes Thursday and expands in the Northeast by Friday, as
hurricane Erin advances up and then well away from the eastern
seaboard. The will result in a stretch of dry weather along with a
warming trend. Temperatures in the 70s Thursday will mix in some
lower 80s for the lake plains and valleys by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep upper trough will dig across the Great Lakes this weekend and
into the beginning of next week. A cold front will likely slide
through the region sometime later in the weekend. Moisture looks
limited with the frontal boundary, but at least some scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms are possible with its passage.
Behind the front, a notably cooler airmass will spill into the region
within a broad cyclonic flow. 850 mb temperatures appear cold enough
to generate a lake response early next week, depending on the amount
of synoptic moisture available. Temperatures will be the warmest early
in the period with widespread daytime readings in the 80s, with a
notable cool down behind the front, with highs Monday and Tuesday
65 to 75, warmest along the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level shortwave will drag an inverted sfc trough axis across
Lake Erie through tonight with a plume of deep moisture advecting
westward. Widespread showers which will be moderate to heavy at
times will continue to spread into the region. Areas of MVFR or
brief IFR vsbys and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible.

While shower coverage may become more scattered after 06z across the
far western terminals, as the low-levels continue to saturate, MVFR
cigs will develop in most areas followed by IFR closer to 12z.

With the exception of the North Country, mainly IFR conditions will
continue in most areas through at least Wednesday morning. Showers
and any thunderstorms will become increasingly scattered from west
to east as the deeper moisture shifts away, though there may be
residual light showers or drizzle with areas of MVFR vsbys.
Confidence is low in the level of improvement to cigs Wednesday
afternoon, with some guidance suggesting an improvement to low-end
MVFR across the western terminals.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly MVFR/IFR south of Lake Ontario with
decreasing chances for showers. VFR/MVFR further north.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain easterly on Lake Ontario into this evening, while
staying generally southeast on Lake Erie. Speeds should remain under
15 knots.

A weak low passes through the region through Wednesday. Winds
trending more toward a northerly component with the low passing
south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a general weak gradient.

Conditions on the lower Great Lakes will become choppy later
Wednesday evening and Thursday as an east-northeast flow strengthens
to around 20 knots. This will yield small craft advisory conditions
on Lake Erie and the western/central portions of Lake Ontario during
this timeframe.

Conditions become somewhat favorable for waterspouts on Lake Erie
Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP/TMA