412
FXUS61 KBUF 221055
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
655 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will bring fair weather through Saturday,
with a light southerly flow returning above normal warmth, briefly,
to our region. A strong cold front will cross our region Saturday
night and Sunday with showers and scattered thunderstorms. Much
cooler air behind this front will bring scattered showers, and
embedded lake effect rain Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early this morning our region has just about cleared out, with the
last gasps of the low stratus lingering near the state line.

Light winds and these clear skies, coupled with low dewpoint
depressions is allowing for areas of fog this morning, most
prominent through the valleys of the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee
Valley.

A weak area of surface high pressure will cross our region today,
with fair weather remaining through much of this period and a
return briefly to more typical summer warmth by Saturday.

A few patches of fog will be possible across eastern zones tonight
as well as the immediate Southern Tier river valleys.

Ahead of a cold front moisture will begin to increase Saturday with
a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms forming with decent
developing instability of 600 to 1200 J/KG MUCAPE within prefrontal
trough west of the Genesee River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A potent mid-level low gyrating near James Bay, and several
shortwave embedded within the deepening trough will bring a taste of
`fall` to the Lower Lakes by Monday which then lasts through
Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach the eastern Great
Lakes Saturday evening-night bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. At this point...as was noted in a
previous AFD the timing of the pre-frontal trough and then
subsequent cold front will determine our SVR storm potential.
Its worth noting that models do show 35-45 knots of shear, so a
few stronger cells may be possible.

Sunday...again shower and thunderstorm potential will all hinge on
the timing of the cold front, and then its progress east across New
York State. Otherwise...high temps on Sunday will be found in the
70s to low 80s, before much cooler air begins to arrive Sunday night
behind the front. Subsidence in the wake of the front and dry
slotting aloft should bring about a diminishing trend to any
remaining showers/storms across our far eastern zones...with a few
spotty lake effect showers then becoming possible downwind of the
lakes overnight.

Monday...CAA will continue with H850T`s dropping down into the
single digits (above zero). Given the much cooler air aloft, we
should see some measure of showers or even an isolated thunderstorm
in the afternoon. This will be our first real taste of fall this
season, with highs peaking in the 60s for most locales.

Monday night...any inland showers or isolated thunderstorm will give
way to some lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes. Cool
night with lows found in the 40s to low 50s closer to the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Anomalously deep...full-latitude upper level troughing will be found
across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday...before gradually weakening
and broadening later Wednesday into Thursday. With the trough
overhead and shortwaves pivoting through the region, we will likely
continue to see unsettled conditions lasting through at least
Tuesday night.

Wednesday...increasing low-level ridging and the onset of gradual
warming aloft should bring about a trend toward drier weather...with
dry conditions lasting into Thursday and highs largely back in the
70s.

Unsettle weather looks like it returns later Thursday night into
Friday as a cold front drops south towards the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS morning fog and low stratus will erode through
14Z, with VFR flight conditions thereafter with a light wind.

A light southerly flow tonight behind the surface high pressure with
any fog formation likely for just eastern zones...including KART.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
embedded thunder afternoons/early evenings. MVFR in lake effect rain
showers overnights into the mornings downwind of the Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak gradient flow today with the passage of an area of surface high
pressure that becomes lightly southerly tonight, and begins to
increase in speed from the south-southwest Saturday. Ahead of a cold
front this south-sousthwest flow may reach small craft criteria on
the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Saturday night and
Sunday.

Strong cold air advection may bring more widespread small craft
conditions Sunday night through Tuesday behind a cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas