285
FXUS61 KBUF 050712
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Widely scattered and isolated showers possible Saturday and
Sunday, though primarily dry weather will dominate through Labor Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered and isolated showers possible
Saturday and Sunday, though primarily dry weather will dominate
through Labor Day.

Mid-level trough centered over New England today, will gradually
exit east into the north Atlantic through the holiday weekend,
placing the eastern Great Lakes beneath northwest flow. While the
trough exits east a few disturbances will dive southeast across the
region. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure over the upper
Great Lakes this morning will slide southeast across the eastern
Great Lakes towards the mid-Atlantic by Monday.

Overall, mainly dry weather will prevail throughout this holiday
weekend, however with each shortwave disturbance passage a few
widely scattered and isolated showers will be possible.

Otherwise, expect near-average to slightly below average
temperatures through the weekend. Lingering moisture, cool
temperatures, and calm winds will yield patchy river valley fog
across the Finger Lakes, east of Lake Ontario and across the western
Southern Tier every night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly dry weather and VFR conditions prevail this morning, however
clearing skies and calm winds will support patchy fog to develop
early this morning, especially for areas in valley locations.
Within fog and low stratus, MVFR to IFR conditions are likely.

Surface high pressure across the upper Great Lakes this morning will
gradually slide southeast through the weekend. While this will lead
to mostly dry weather today, increasing moisture ahead of a
shortwave trough disturbance will support periods of MVFR ceilings
for areas east of Lake Ontario, impacting KART. Additionally, a few
showers will be possible across the North Country late this morning
and through this afternoon. Otherwise, further west expect dry
weather and VFR conditions to prevail.


Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with
local IFR each late night and early morning across the Southern Tier.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge will gradually build southeast across the eastern
Great Lakes and towards the mid-Atlantic through the holiday
weekend. Overall light winds of 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or
less through the holiday weekend.

As the ridge exits midweek, a warm front will pass across eastern
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, causing winds and waves to freshen where
Small Craft Advisory criteria will likely be met.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL