Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
464 FXUS61 KBUF 070611 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 211 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday. 2) A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday. Good radiational cooling taking place across the area with temperatures in the 50s and even 40s in the cooler spots. Some fog has also developed in the valleys which will dissipate after sunrise and as mixing takes place. Otherwise...a absolutely beautiful day will unfold with high pressure over the area promoting sun-filled skies and temperatures expected in the 70s this afternoon. Tonight...again some fog will once again be found in the valleys across the area. Lows will be in the 50s to mid-upper 40s in the cooler locales. Tuesday...high pressure will continue to maintain mainly dry quite weather across much of the eastern Great Lakes. Although...we may see some clouds push in across the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern Lake Ontario region as a back door front drops across that region. Hi-res guidance suggest we even could see an isolated shower there but confidence of this occuring is low. Highs on Tuesday will be a tad bit warmer with mid to upper 70s across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A sharp mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, with the southern extent of height falls spreading east across the Great Lakes region. A narrow axis of greater moisture (PW values 2.0 to 2.1 inches) will be advect into the eastern Great Lakes just ahead of the system, with surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday afternoon and contributing to at least some instability. A pre- frontal trough is forecast to advance east across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night, with some timing differences still showing in latest model guidance. Deep moisture and forcing along and ahead of the mid level trough and pre-frontal trough will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday through Wednesday night. Shear will also increase as a belt of enhanced mid level flow near the base of the trough moves into the area. There may be at least some limited severe potential if the timing of forcing aligns with the diurnal heating cycle and sufficient instability develops. With the passage of the front Wednesday night we should see drier weather slowly return Thursday but a few showers may linger. Cooler and dry Friday as high pressure settles in across the eastern Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Valley fog will become an issue this morning and again on Monday night. Otherwise...high pressure will provide generally quiet weather with VFR conditions through Tuesday. Outlook... Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Localized flight restrictions possible. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will provide light winds and minimal wave action today through Tuesday. A cold front approaching the eastern Great Lakes will bring increasing south to southwest flow beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday with potential for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditons. There will also be chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday ahead of the front and with the cold frontal passage. High pressure begins to build into the Lower Lakes Thursday with a slow but gradual diminishing of winds and then lessening wave action through Friday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR