821
FXUS61 KBUF 041826
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
226 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area today, producing a
period of showers and scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may
contain gusty winds and brief, heavy downpours. Mainly dry weather
will return Friday, although it will turn windy, especially
northeast of Lake Erie across the Niagara Frontier. A secondary cold
front will then cross the area Friday night and Saturday with a few
more showers. This front will usher in much cooler air for the
weekend, along with the potential for a few lake effect rain showers
east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A deep, closed low will spin across northern Ontario through Friday.
Mid-level height falls and vorticity advection combined with low
level convergence from a cold front will continue to support
showers and embedded thunderstorms to the forecast area today.
Destabilization and high shear has created an environment for a
few strong to severe line segments from the Finger Lakes region
to north-central NY. Strong wind gusts is the main threat.

Dry air will move into the eastern Great Lakes from west to east
tonight. Showers and any thunderstorms will clear the North Country
by 10PM. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 40s across
the western Southern Tier to the low 50s elsewhere.

A robust shortwave trough will round the base of the parent trough
Friday. A southerly flow will increase through the day. This will be
the last warm day in this stretch with highs in the 70s. Windy
conditions are likely northeast of Lake Erie with southwest
winds 20 to 25 mph, gusts up to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A deep upper trough will slowly pivot through the eastern Great
Lakes through Sunday night, which will allow for a cooler
Canadian airmass to settle in across the region. 850mb temps
will only be +1 to +3C by Sunday morning, which will not only
lead to temps running solidly below normal but also the
development of periodic lake effect rain showers, once
additional synoptic moisture arrives to the region. Lake effect
rain showers will mainly be found east of the lakes Saturday
night through Sunday night. With the approaching trough axis, in
concert with diurnal heating, additional showers may be found
outside the primary lake effect areas during the day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The stacked low and core of the cool airmass near James Bay will
swing north of the region on Monday. A few lake effect rain showers
could linger southeast of the lakes through the day as temperatures
run well below normal through Monday night. Depending on how quickly
sfc high pressure builds over the region, there could be a risk of
frost across the interior locations.

While broad upper level troughing will continue across the Northeast
for much of the work week, mid/lower level ridging will allow for a
quieter stretch of weather through Thursday. Sfc high pressure
translating east of the region should allow for a gentle day to day
warming trend through midweek, though temps on the whole will still
likely average below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is moving across western NY this afternoon. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front, with higher
probability of thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario through the
afternoon. Drier air will move into the region from west to east
through tonight.

MVFR/IFR conditions are co-located with the front this afternoon.
Flight conditions will improve mainly from west to east through
tonight. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are expected with
thunderstorms, mainly at KART/KGTB this afternoon.

Dry conditions and VFR expected tonight. A southerly wind will
increase Friday. Strong wind gusts up to 40kts are expected at
KIAG/KBUF Fri afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely, especially
over southern and eastern portions of the area.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes today.
Moderate SSW winds ahead of the cold front will continue to produce
Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and the northeast end
of Lake Ontario today. Winds will become westerly and diminish late
this afternoon and evening following the cold frontal passage, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions ending.

The brief lull in winds will not last long. A period of strong SW
winds will develop Friday ahead of a secondary cold front on Lake
Erie and the west end of Lake Ontario, bringing another round of
solid Small Craft Advisory conditions. The stronger winds will
spread to the east end of Lake Ontario Friday night, then diminish
areawide by early Saturday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020-
         040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR/PP
LONG TERM...AR/PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK