804
FXUS61 KBUF 101106
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
706 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) has been
expanded northward and now includes all areas south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active weather today through tonight, followed by periodic
chances for showers and storms through midweek, although plenty of
dry time can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Active weather today through tonight, followed by
periodic chances for showers and storms through midweek, although
plenty of dry time can be expected.

Active weather will return for today and tonight as high pressure
exits to our east. This will initially allow a warm frontal segment
to drift northeast across the region this morning in response to a
mid/upper shortwave dropping into the western Great Lakes. This will
bring the next chance for showers and isolated storms into western
New York early this morning, possibly impacting the morning commute.
This initial batch of showers and isolated storms will then shift
east across the remainder of the area through midday/early afternoon.

Overall environment does a look a bit more favorable for a few
stronger storms across areas south of Lake Ontario this afternoon
and evening. Moderate shear and deep moisture (PWAT values in the
1.5"-1.75" range) will already be in place, so as the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon, this will bring the better chance for
some more robust scattered convection. The main focus for storms
from mid afternoon into this evening will be along lake breeze
convergence boundaries south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie.

A cold front will then push south across western and north-central
New York late this evening through the early overnight. Moderate
shear and a moist airmass will remain in place within the warm
sector ahead of the boundary, however loss of daytime heating will
result in less instability. That said, as lake breezes flip to land
breezes and move back out over the warm lake waters, can`t rule out
a couple stronger storms possibly forming along and just ahead of
the surface cold front as it interacts with any lingering
boundaries, especially over the lakes.

As mentioned above, the threat for a few severe storms has been
expanded northward with the latest update from SPC, with the main
threat continuing to be strong winds. Thus, a Marginal Risk of
Severe Weather (level 1 of 5) now includes all areas south of Lake
Ontario for mid afternoon through the early overnight. Potential for
localized heavy rainfall remains in place within the moist airmass,
for which WPC continues with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
(level 1 of 4) for the entire area.

The cold front will stall just to our south tonight, then remain
nearly stationary through midweek. Drier air will reside to the
north of the boundary, with the main threat of showers and a few
storms toward the western Southern Tier Tuesday through Wednesday
closer to the frontal boundary, and mainly dry weather elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will slowly lift northeast through the region with
several waves of showers and thunderstorms upon it. Tough to time
each element along the warm front, thus will have a prolonged period
with PROB30s. Any thunderstorm will bring brief periods of IFR
flight conditions in heavier downpours, while MVFR ceiling heights
in lingering cloud debris may remain for a few hours. While
convection will likely remain garden variety, a few strong storms
are possible as wind fields increase late this afternoon into this
evening.

Cold front will drop across the region between 06Z and 12Z Tuesday,
ending the threat for storms. Areas of IFR ceilings are likely
across the Southern Tier (KJHW), as well as east of Lake Ontario,
possibly impacting the KART airfield.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of periodic showers
and thunderstorms with localized MVFR or worse conditions possible.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest flow will increase today as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds of around 15
knots are expected on Lake Ontario, bringing choppy conditions
today, but expected to remain below SCA criteria. 15 to 18 knot
winds and 2 to 4 foot waves are expected on Lake Erie, which is
right in the marginal SCA criteria window. With it being August,
will err on the side of caution and issue a SCA from late this
morning through late this evening from Ripley to Buffalo on Lake
Erie.

The cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes region tonight with
winds veering more west to northwest and diminishing to 10 knots or
less, although 12-15 knot northwesterlies will continue across
eastern Lake Ontario through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible on both Lakes today
into tonight, with a few stronger storms possible this afternoon and
evening that will be capable of producing strong winds and locally
higher waves.

Winds of 10 knots or less are then expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JM