646
FXUS61 KBUF 070556
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal boundary and low pressure system will slowly
lift northeast through Wednesday bringing rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front will then swing through our area
Wednesday night bringing a cooler shot of air for the latter half of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A closed upper level low is right over the forecast area late
tonight. An area of light to moderate showers will continue to
move cyclonically across Lake Ontario overnight. Rainfall rates
of 0.1-0.20" per hour have been measured in the heaviest showers
from Monroe to Oswego counties and south across Ontario county.
A Flood Watch remains in effect overnight.

The closed upper level low will start to shift away from the region
Wednesday. Surface low pressure will also move northeast of the area
with drier air beginning to work its way into western New York. Some
wrap-around showers are likely east of the Genesee River with the
highest confidence across the Finger Lakes region to the Tug Hill
region. Daytime heating and cool air aloft may produce weak
instability across the region. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out across the Finger Lakes region where the best moisture axis is
expected, but the risk for heavy rainfall look much less than the
past couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching trough from northern Ontario will shove the closed
low out to sea Wednesday night. A cold front will bring much drier
air with a diminishing shower threat Wednesday night and Thursday.
The best chance of any shower activity should be across the Southern
Tier with better moisture profiles and approach of an upstream
shortwave trough. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range
through the 40s, while highs Thursday will be in the 50s for most
locations.

Shortwave trough crossing Thursday night before slowly pushing
to the east Friday, and eventually closing off into another
upper-level low Friday across the northeast CONUS. This could
bring some showers back westward into portions of the region by
Friday, with the better chance across interior sections of the
eastern Lake Ontario region, Finger Lakes and Souther Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This looks to be a warmer and drier period as the upper low looks
to get absorbed in the northern stream flow Saturday and is
sent east-northeast away from the region. As this system finally
departs, rising 500 mb heights and surface high pressure
building into the Upper Ohio Valley should result in a dry and
warmer weekend. This warmer and drier pattern should maintain
itself through early next week as high pressure remains anchored
across the region, although there are some hints that an upper
low over the Mississippi Valley may try and lift northward
toward the region by Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal
or slightly above this weekend before going solidly above
normal early next week (perhaps even to near summertime levels
by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low is centered over Lake Ontario and light to
moderate rain will continue overnight. Mostly VFR/MVFR flight
conditions will continue across western NY, with IFR conditions
across the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART.) Patchy fog is
possible near the Lake Erie shoreline through daybreak. While
this could impact the City of Buffalo, it is not expected to
move into KBUF or KIAG. The low and shield of rain will move
east Wednesday morning with scattered rain showers east of KROC
through the afternoon. Flight conditions will improve through
the afternoon with KART maintaining low-end MVFR through
afternoon.

A cold front will move through the region tonight and winds will
become northerly. Winds should stay elevated and clouds should
persist enough that the threat for widespread fog is low. If clouds
clear across protected valleys, then fog may be an issue.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of showers.
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to generally remain 15 knots or less right
through the remainder of the work week. There will be some periods
of light to moderate chop, but Small Craft Advisory headlines are
not anticipated. Winds will increase to 15 to 18 kts on the eastern
end of Lake Ontario early this morning, but it should only be for a
few hours before winds decrease back to 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ003>008-013-014-
     021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM/PP