106
FXUS61 KBUF 291757
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A departing area of high pressure will maintain fair weather across
our region through tomorrow morning. Ahead of a cold front a very
warm airmass will advect into our region tomorrow afternoon with a
noticeable uptick in both the air temperature and humidity. This
airmass will yield a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon, with storms becoming more numerous overnight...with a few
of these bringing torrential downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure over our region this afternoon will gradually
slip eastward tonight...leaving still fair weather in its wake...but
a gradual warming trend at the surface and aloft. With a small
dewpoint depression overnight could still see some patches of fog in
the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

Tomorrow a warm front will enter our region through the afternoon
hours. After a fair, and mild start to the day...a noticeable uptick
in temperatures and humidity tomorrow afternoon will be felt across
WNY. Heat index values will climb into the lower to mid 90s across
the northern Niagara Frontier, and the Genesee Valley and northern
Finger Lakes region. Models have trimmed the apparent temperatures
back a bit...with high clouds spilling across our region, and will
continue to mention the prospects for oppressive heat index values in
the HWO.

While a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible midday
tomorrow across the Southern Tier, more widespread showers and
thunderstorms for our region will likely wait till late afternoon
when the deeper moisture and instability arrives. Severe prospects
are minimal tomorrow with weak shear aloft...though heavy rain will
remain possible as the airmass PWATS climb towards 2.00 inches by
the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mid-level trough will move across the Great Lakes region Monday
night through Tuesday. Moisture will surge northward into the region
Monday night as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Upstream showers and thunderstorms will likely move into the
forecast area with additional showers and thunderstorms developing
in the warm sector. Deep moisture will support heavy rain in
activity, however modest southwesterly flow should keep things
moving and limit hydro concerns. Similarly, any thunderstorms will
have a low chance of becoming severe with forecast mid-level lapse
rates and the loss of daytime heating overnight. The greatest chance
will be across far southwestern NY early Monday night.

The cold front will move across the region Tuesday and the chance
for showers and a few thunderstorms will mainly end from west to
east. There could be a convergence zone that forms across the
Niagara Frontier Tuesday keeping a low chance of showers in the
forecast through the afternoon. If the cold front slows down, there
might be a risk of severe storms across interior portions of the
Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, and southern Tug Hill region. Basin
rainfall averages will be 0.15-0.50", however any thunderstorms will
produce locally higher amounts.

Zonal flow builds into the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A
surface ridge will nose into the region from an area of high
pressure over the Tennessee Valley. A few diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into evening.
Seasonable weather is forecast through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern may become more amplified late in the week with a ridge
building into the Northern Plains/Mid-West and troughing across the
Northeast. A cold front may move across the region Thursday with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
Surface high pressure builds into the region Thursday night through
Friday and there is medium confidence that mostly dry weather will
take place Thursday night through Independence Day. The ridge will
settle south across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley into the
weekend. A westerly flow may open the door for multiple waves of
precipitation across the Lower Great Lakes region.

Temperatures near seasonal normals are forecast Thursday through
Friday. Warmer weather is possible for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions will persist through much if not all of this TAF cycle as
surface high pressure departs eastward.

Winds may diminish enough overnight for some valley fog in the
Southern Tier of which light boundary layer flow may allow for this
fog to again expand up over the KJHW airfield.

A warm front will approach our region early tomorrow afternoon.
Initial showers and thunderstorms along the front may reach across
the Southern Tier (KJHW) in the early afternoon with any heavier
activity bringing localized brief IFR/MVFR visibilities.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely,
mainly from late afternoon through overnight.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly
early.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible.

Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A departing area of high pressure will maintain light winds through
tomorrow afternoon. Waves are expected to remain below a foot.

A warm front will lift across the Lower Great Lakes Monday, with
light winds on Lake Ontario backing to easterly through the day and
before the warm front passes through. Behind the warm front a 10 to
15 knot south-southwesterly flow will be found Monday night
creating a chop on the waters.

The winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft
criteria through mid week though some choppy conditions will be
possible at times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas