938
FXUS61 KBTV 111059
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
659 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures are expected today with intervals of
sunshine, followed by much cooler temperatures tonight into
Wednesday. In addition, gusty south to southwest winds are
anticipated today as temperatures warm into the mid 50s to lower
60s, except much cooler near the lake shore. A brief rain or snow
shower is possible this evening with the passage of the cold front.
Another warm up occurs late this week into the upcoming weekend with
significant snow melt likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 654 AM EDT Tuesday...Hrly temps continue to be a challenge
this morning with values ranging from the lower 20s to upper
40s. Warmest acrs the western Dacks and portions of the CPV/SLV.
Also, did bump winds up acrs the northern CPV into parts of
northern NY, including the SLV from 15z to 21z today, where
localized gusts 40 to 45 mph will be possible. Rest of fcst in
good shape.

Previous discussion below:
Sfc analysis places a warm frnt lifting acrs our region this
morning with Potsdam at 46F, while MSS is holding in the upper
20s. This warm frnt wl surge north this morning with some very
warm air located over the Ohio Valley/Western NY advecting into
our region. Erie PA is 53F as of 4 AM. Progged 925mb temps warm
btwn 7-10C by 18z this aftn, which support highs in the mid 50s
to mid 60s, except much cooler near the Lake Champlain
shoreline. Given the southwest bl flow, expecting lake breeze
with much cooler air wl impact the downtown BTV area/eastern
side, difficult to determine if it can advect over higher trrn
near UVM campus and impact the airport this aftn, as suggested
by the HRRR 2m temps. Another element to watch for potential
impacts on temps are mid/upper lvl clouds near the International
Border, which are supported by enhanced mid lvl moisture on
latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery. These how are progged to
lift north of our cwa by mid morning.

Next concern is gusty south/southwest winds btwn 14z and 20z today
associated with core of 925mb to 850mb winds of 40 to 55 knots.
Soundings indicate as bl warming occurs mixing heights wl increase,
resulting in localized gusty winds of 30 to 35 knots, especially
northern slopes of the Dacks. An isolated gust to 40 knots is
possible from Malone to Altona during peak heating today. Winds wl
be lighter acrs central/eastern VT valleys with gusts in the 15 to
25 knots range but localized higher acrs exposed midslopes and
ridges.

Late this aftn/evening a sharp cold frnt wl sweep acrs the region
with rapidly falling temps. The combination of increasing cloud
cover and strong llvl caa wl produce sharp drops in temps this
evening, with many locations falling below 32F by midnight or so.
Moisture and dynamics with this boundary are minimal, so any
measurable precip is mostly confined to the favorable upslope
regions of the dacks and central/northern Greens. Temps by morning
range from the single digits summits to lower/mid 20s southern
valleys. Weds is quiet with slightly below normal temps in the upper
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak surface low pressure will bring some
light snow showers or freezing drizzle to the forecast area
Wednesday night, with best forcing and moisture advection focused on
southern zones, where we could accumulate up to about an inch of
snow and have a slick Thursday morning commute. Milder air advection
and increased cloud cover will allow low temperatures Wednesday
night to remain around the mid teens to upper 20s, a touch warmer
than Tuesday night is forecast to be. Models continue to disagree on
the potency of this little feature, with some too dry for actual
showers. During the day on Thursday, southerly winds will continue
to ferry temperatures up to the lower to mid 40s. Precipitation will
be heading out, potentially turning to rain/snow mix, rain, or
drizzle in the valleys on its way out as temperatures increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Tuesday...* A sharp warming trend is expected for
the end of the week into the weekend promoting significant
snowmelt at all elevations. River rises and ice movement are
anticipated. The potential for river flooding due to ice jams
and/or combination of snowmelt/rainfall is increasing, but there
is still some uncertainty in precipitation amounts and timing
of river rises. Considering persistent trends and the magnitude
of the warm up, it is good idea to go over your plans concerning
river flooding.

Temperatures are forecast to rise Friday through Sunday with highs
climbing from the upper 40s/lower 50s to the upper 50s/lower 60s and
lows from 20s/lower 30s to upper 40s/lower 50s. These warmer
conditions will work away at our snowpack and produce increased
river ice movement. Snowmelt will likely increase river and stream
levels across the forecast area. Rainfall is expected to arrive to
help this process along around Saturday night and Sunday as low
pressure is modeled to slide north up an occluded frontal boundary
accompanied by a deep trough and a low level jet up to 70-75 knots.
Ensemble models are indicating widespread 60%+ chances of over a
half of an inch of precipitation in 24 hours. The combined effect of
long-lived warmth, including temperatures refusing to fall below 40
on Saturday night, with the potential for a not-insignificant
rainfall event, will likely result in the loss of our snowpack below
1500 feet or so. Ensemble river models indicate sharp rises on
rivers are likely, though precise river flood stages that mainstem
rivers may reach will depend on how temperatures and QPF shape up
over the next several days. With a 70-75 knot 850mb jet overhead on
Sunday, mountaintops can expect gusty conditions with some downslope
anticipated as well on northern and northwestern slopes and
channeling winds in the Champlain Valley. Following the rain,
drier and cooler conditions are expected heading into the
midweek with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf
sites for the next 6 to 12 hours with the primary focus wind
speeds and changing wind direction associated with a sharp cold
front. South to southwest winds increase 10 to 20 knots with
gusts 20 to 30 knots this morning ahead of an approaching cold
front. As the cold front sweeps across our taf sites between
21-02z this evening, expect winds to shift to the
north/northwest with localized gusts 15 to 25 knots. A few
mountain rain/snow showers are possible toward 00z, which I have
covered with PROB30 group. In addition, brief MVFR cigs are
possible at SLK associated with boundary this evening.
Otherwise, given the changing wind speeds and direction, expect
areas of enhanced low level wind shear and turbulence today.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Taber