774
FXUS61 KBTV 171839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
239 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Although showers will come to an end by around sunset, breezy north
winds will persist through this evening and overnight. Monday and
Tuesday will be dry but with quite a fall-like feel, with highs in
the upper 60s to mid and upper 70s. Another round of mainly light
showers will be possible mid week, but significant rainfall is not
expected over the next several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM EDT Sunday...Quite the frontal passage this afternoon
with temperatures dropping several degrees in just 15-20 minutes,
and winds becoming quite gusty one they turned to the north. It`s
been particularly windy on Lake Champlain, where both Diamond Island
and Colchester Reef gusted in excess of 35 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory
remains in effect for the lake through at least this evening; see
the Marine section below for full details.

The showers associated with the front have been much less impressive
so far. They`ve been most numerous in the St Lawrence Valley, but
rainfall totals have still been around a tenth of an inch at most.
Expect this will be the trend as the showers gradually push
southward through this afternoon into the evening. Areal coverage
should wane as the showers make their way southward, so some
portions of central/southern VT could well see just sprinkles, if
they get any rain at all.

Temperatures will continue to fall through the rest of this
afternoon and evening, and expect everyone will be in the 50s to
around 60F by 8 pm or so. Skies will clear out overnight, but winds
remaining gusty overnight will prohibit radiational cooling. Still,
lows will be on the chilly side. Most spots will get down into the
40s, but some upper 30s can`t be ruled out in the usual colder
locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.

Monday will feature ample sunshine. North winds will gradually
subside through the day as high pressure builds across the region.
Temperatures will be some 5-10 degrees below normal, ranging from
the upper 60s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the
low/mid 70s in the wider valleys. Expect good radiational cooling
conditions Monday night; incoming high clouds should be fairly thin.
Lows will mainly in the 40s to near 50F, but like tonight, wouldn`t
be surprised to see a few spots get down into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM EDT Sunday...Surface high pressure will shift eastward
Tuesday and Tuesday night, while northwest flow continues to
dominate aloft. A weak upper shortwave will drop down towards our
region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will mainly lead to
increasing clouds during the daylight hours Tuesday, but then expect
showers to develop Tuesday night, particularly across northern NY.
Tuesday`s highs will be a little warmer than Monday, but still just
in the 70s. Increasing clouds and moisture will serve to keep
Tuesday night warmer than the previous couple of nights though; lows
will be in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 237 PM EDT Sunday...A period of rain remains possible on
Wednesday associated with an inverted surface trough and a upper
level wave clipping the area as it passes to our north. Greatest
chances of rain appear to indeed be closer to the International
Border and during the morning to early afternoon hours, where a
beneficial, steady rain on the cool side of the trough could
develop. Have maintained a slight chance of thunder in
western/northernmost areas during this timeframe, consistent with a
few members of the ENS showing a surge of elevated instability. Most
guidance, however, shows little to no instability (under 100 J/kg
MUCAPE), suggesting the thunderstorm risk is quite limited despite
southerly low level flow on the south side of surface trough.
Shallow boundary layer and southerly winds suggest breezy conditions
in the Champlain Valley (gusts locally 25 to 30 MPH) Wednesday
morning before the channeled flow relaxes as the trough axis shifts
eastward later in the day and the low level winds no longer align
along the valley. Possible high temperatures for Wednesday show
greater than normal spread in northern and eastern areas, probably
associated with uncertainty in cloud cover/rain; in a cloudier
scenario, highs could be limited to the upper 60s in many towns.

Otherwise, behind the Wednesday system we`ll see a dry and warming
trend resume but no anomalous/unusual weather is expected through
Friday per NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness Table or ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index. On Saturday, things start to become a little
more complicated as somewhat hot and more humid air briefly builds
back into the northeastern US. There is high confidence of above
normal temperatures, probably reaching the mid and upper 80s, with
dew points eventually returning into the 60s. There are timing
difference on an incoming strong upper level trough and associated
cold front which should promote numerous showers and thunderstorms,
hence only "chance" PoPs Saturday afternoon. However, it looks like
a good setup for likely rainfall at some point over the weekend even
if it is more of a Sunday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Challenging ceilings forecast for this afternoon as a relatively
narrow zone of low clouds is present between a southward-moving cold
front and a zone of dry air farther north and west. Therefore, a
variety of flight categories is anticipated through 00Z before
conditions trend VFR areawide. At 18Z, IFR conditions were occurring
at SLK, EFK, and MSS; briefly heavy rain was observed at MSS and EFK
within the last hour, but visibility restrictions are expected to be
mainly in the MVFR category through the afternoon as the showers
shift southward. Showers are unlikely at PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT through the
period, but all of these sites are trending MVFR now through 21Z.
Chances of rain diminish in southern portions of the airspace such
that RUT is unlikely to see rain. Winds will be northerly through
the period. They are gusty in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley
sites, with maximum gusts early in the period 20 to 25 knots and
gradually subsiding towards 00Z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through at least this
evening and it may need to be extended into the overnight
hours. A cold front has brought gusty north winds to Lake
Champlain this afternoon, with sensors reporting winds exceeding
30 kt. These should subside somewhat this afternoon, but expect
at least 20 to 30 kt to continue into the evening hours. Waves
will be 2 to 4 feet. Winds may lessen slightly after sunset, but
should still remain breezy 15-20 kt.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff
MARINE...