414
FXUS61 KBTV 281740
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms will be
possible throughout the day today. A cold front will swing through
the region this afternoon and evening which will bring an end to our
rain chances with increasing sunshine and seasonal weather expected
on Sunday. A significant warm up is expected Monday as highs climb
into the mid 80s to lower 90s but these temperatures will be short-
lived as another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday.
Several round of rain and thunderstorms will be possible late Monday
and again on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 129 PM EDT Saturday...The last pieces of this morning`s
rain is in Essex County, Vermont. A cold front has made it about
halfway east past Lake Ontario. On the north end, very dry mid-
level conditions are keeping showers at bay, while farther
south, deeper moisture is allowing thunderstorms to develop
extending down into Pennsylvania. This set of showers and
thunderstorms will slide east, but rather late in the day.
Additionally, flow southeasterly flow will filter stable air
into the region, quickly reducing instability after 5 PM.
Modest dynamical support from a jet streak and modest
convergence along the frontal axis could still support showers
and thunderstorms south of Mt. Marcy east towards Rutland County.
Mostly garden variety storms will be possible, but we will
still keep a close eye on activity crossing towards southern
Vermont.

Excerpt of previous discussion...A narrow warm sector will
develop across the southern half of Vermont and maybe into the
northern Adirondacks depending on frontal timing which may give
way to a few stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Any
thunderstorms this afternoon will be heavy rainers as they will
be in an environment highlighted by high PWATs and deep warm
cloud depths but the progressive nature of the cold front will
quickly push storms eastward with little to no chances of
training thunderstorms. An abrupt end to rainfall is expected
this evening behind the cold front. Given the latest guidance,
rainfall amounts have been lowered further which continues to
diminish any flood threat across the region.

Sunday will be a much nicer day across the region as surface high
pressure build across the Northeast with some minor mid-level height
rises. It`ll likely take some time to scour out the low level
moisture Sunday morning so we`ll start off cloudy but we shouldn`t
have any problems breaking out into sunshine Sunday afternoon. High
temperatures will be around seasonal normals with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s with comfortable dewpoints and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...We are looking at a pretty quiet period
of weather overall Sunday night into Monday with the main focus
being the above normal temperatures expected on Monday. The latest
ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the wider valleys across
the North Country will easily climb into the lower 90s with other
locations warming into the mid to upper 80s. Heat indices don`t look
all that impressive given dewpoints in the lower 60s so we likely
won`t need any heat headlines. Nevertheless, it`s always good to
take precautions when it`ll be as warm as forecasted by taking
breaks and drinking plenty of fluids. Rain chances will increase
after sunset on Monday but that will be discussed in the section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 957 PM EDT Friday...Models in good agreement that a warm
and humid night will follow Monday`s hot daytime temperatures.
Low-level winds will remain out of the south Monday night in
advance of robust shortwave expected to be translating ewd
across the central Great Lakes. This should allow for overnight
lows near 70F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys, and
generally mid-upper 60s elsewhere across the North Country. It
appears that 700-500mb height falls and onset of cyclonic mid-
level flow will occur between 06-12Z Tuesday, and therefore kept
the idea of scattered to numerous showers across the region
toward daybreak.

During the daylight hours Tuesday, may see an early round of
shower activity followed by additional showers and thunderstorms
as mid-level trough and associated cold front cross the region
from W-E during Tuesday afternoon. Included a chance of
thunderstorms, with highest chances in the afternoon/early
evening time frame on Tuesday. Should see PBL dewpoints climb
to the upper 60s to lower 70s in advance of approaching cold
front, and stuck with these values shown in latest NBM. If some
breaks of sun occur between the two rounds of precipitation,
expect to see max temperatures in the mid- upper 80s. Will need
to watch for potential strong to locally severe thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as sfc-6km shear is potentially 35-40kt with moderately
strong forcing and potential for moderate SBCAPE. Will also need
to watch for locally heavy rainfall, with latest GFS indicating
high PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range Tuesday afternoon.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will gradually settle back
closer to seasonal norms for early July with lower chances for
diurnally driven shower activity. Highs generally lower 80s in
valley locations Wednesday and Thursday, with more modest
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. A northern
stream trough and secondary cold front may shift through our
region Thursday and Thursday night, allowing for cooler
Independence Day conditions with highs in the mid-upper 70s
based on current indications. Chances for showers Thursday and
Friday currently around 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Aviation conditions are VFR/MVFR while
stratocumulus around 1500-2500 ft agl remain present. These
clouds should continue to thin and lift as dry air and warming
help raise LFCs. Winds are currently south to southwest at 7 to
15 knots sustained, with a few gusts to 22 knots at KMSS and
KBTV. A front will shift east across the St. Lawrence River
around 20z, progress towards the Champlain Valley around 23-00z,
and shift east of Vermont around 02-04z. Isolated to scattered
showers and a few storms will be possible, mainly near KRUT, and
have noted with PROB30s where necessary. Winds behind the front
will trend 4 to 8 knots and trend west-northwest. Once the
front clears the region, ceilings will also fall back towards
1500-2500 ft agl, mainly from 04z-14z Sunday. In eastern
Vermont, the front appears likely to wash out, which could place
stagnant, moist conditions over KMPV. Fog appears possible
there, with a note for 2SM. Beyond 12z, gradual improvement of
ceilings and visibility will bring all sites to VFR about
15-16z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect over Lake Champlain.
Wind speeds are gradually declining, but gusts up to 25 knots
continue to periodically occur. Waves are likely falling towards
2-4 feet waves across the broad lake at this time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...NWS BTV