580
FXUS61 KBTV 132327
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
727 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front comes through tonight, bringing an end to the heat and
humidity. A few showers are possible in southern areas tomorrow but
most areas will be dry. Seasonable temperatures will end the week,
but the heat builds back in this weekend before a stronger cold
front comes through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM EDT Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
move through this afternoon and a few of these could be strong.
However, showers and clouds across northern Vermont and New York
have kept instability to a minimum. Therefore, the chance for
anything stronger looks to be limited to southern vermont, and even
there conditions are marginal. While there is enough CAPE with
values between 1,00-2,500 J, 0-6 KM shear is only around 20 KTs and
there is no strong synoptic forcing. The southern valleys have been
able to reach the low 90s but developing showers and increasing
clouds will cause temperatures to plateau and start dropping. Flow
will be weak tonight so patchy fog formation is expected, mostly in
the areas that see rain this afternoon and evening. The actual cold
front comes through tonight and into the day tomorrow. While it will
cause a noticeable change in the airmass, it will only bring
temperatures down to around climatological normals. The humidity
will be much lower, with dew points dropping into the 50s and upper
40s. It may bring a few isolated showers to southern Vermont but
there should not be anything strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 203 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure builds almost directly
overhead Thursday night and Friday, bringing clear skies and light
winds. While highs will be around and slightly above climatological
normals, efficient radiational cooling should cause temperatures to
fall below normals at night. Temperatures will likely be a few
degrees below the NBM and close to the MOS guidance, somewhere
around the NBM 10th and 25th percentiles. The coldest hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could reach the upper 30s, while
everywhere else will see lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...Unseasonably warm conditions
return Saturday with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees.
Looking at dew points, progged values are in the 50s to low 60s,
so while hot, the conditions shouldn`t be overly humid. Still,
those outdoors will want to hydrate and take breaks.

After Saturday, all eyes for the long term are on the
approaching front Sunday that will bring a sharper cooling trend
early next week. Models continue to indicate a drier
presentation of the front despite a sharp thermal gradient.
While showers and an isolated/scattered thunderstorm are
possible, the lack of depicted upper level forcing along the
boundary may keep significant (wetting rains) rainfall more
limited to areas where thunderstorms occur. Still, should see
some rainfall as this boundary moves through, but low confidence
on amounts at this time. Higher confidence in the sharp cool
down for early next week with highs expected to be around and a
little below seasonal averages in the 70s. Some models stall the
previously mentioned front across central/southern New York and
move a low amplitude wave along it early next week. This
pattern could produce some rain for the area, but this is an
outlier of a pattern for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...A few showers linger across the region but
should come to an end by 03Z. MPV/SLK and to a lesser degree,
EFK and RUT will see some fog 08-12Z since rainfall occur at
terminals with IFR and some MVFR. Lingering cloud cover could
impede fog formation, if clouds out clear at the above
terminals, LIFR is not out of the question. Southerly flow this
evening becomes light overnight before turning northerly after
12Z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd/Verasamy