707
FXUS61 KBTV 051931
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
331 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, with a few stronger storms capable
of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours. More wet
weather is expected beginning Friday afternoon and continuing
into Saturday. Generally seasonable weather is expected next
week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances for
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the near term
portion of the forecast. Some showers and thunderstorms are
still expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front
which will cross the region. Tonight will be quiet and then
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday. The
latest consensus has trended wetter and cooler, especially in
southern portions of the region, where greatest moisture and
instability will be present. There is little overlap with any
substantial shear, so any thunderstorms are not expected to
produce gusty winds or large hail. North and west of the frontal
zone there should be more sunshine into the afternoon hours, so
best bet for a fully dry day with seasonably warm conditions
will be across the St. Lawrence Valley eastward into
northwestern Vermont. Most locations will see highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Did not make many changes for the
short term portion of the forecast. Additional rainfall,
possibly heavy, is expected on Saturday. At this time biggest
totals are expected across our southern Vermont zones. In these
areas around an inch and a half of rainfall is possible.
Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal on Saturday,
max temps in the 70s. WPC has much of our region in the
excessive rainfall outlook on both Friday and Saturday. Some
thunder is possible but not really expecting severe storms on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...The second half of the weekend is
looking more favorable as we`ll see some brief ridging settle
over the region. A few showers can`t be ruled out, but expect if
any develop they`ll be pretty isolated. Otherwise, expect
partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Thereafter, we`ll see a
return to a more active weather pattern as the mid/upper level
trough deepens across the Central Plains/Great Lakes regions.
The result will be an unsettled weather pattern for our region
as a series of shortwaves and frontal boundaries pinwheel push
through. As per usual, exact timing of these features is
difficult at this time, so stayed close to NBM through this
period, which gives showers chances every day through mid week.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with daytime highs in the
70s to around 80F and overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the
period, aside from any direct hits from isolated to scattered
convection expected this afternoon, especially from 19Z to 23Z.
Coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be limited, especially
in New York with earlier push of a surface cold front. Vermont
has the better chance of thunderstorms, with PROB30 across area
through 23Z.

Northwesterly winds are expected through most of the area at
less than 10 knots for the period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Hastings/Neiles
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Verasamy