474
FXUS61 KBTV 050844
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake enhanced flurries and light snow showers off of Lake
Champlain are occurring in southern Chittenden and northern
Addison Counties. Otherwise, conditions are quite cold and dry
with the next low pressure system quickly arriving on Thursday,
bringing widespread wintry precipitation including light to
moderate snow accumulations and potential for a glaze of ice.
Unsettled conditions return over the weekend with increasing
chances for snow Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

* A storm system will bring widespread light snowfall, moderate
  snow accumulations along the Adirondacks and the Greens, and
  potential for a glaze of ice Thursday and Thursday night.

As of 321 AM EST Wednesday...Frigid temperatures are occurring
in portions of northern New York this morning where skies have
been mostly clear with calm winds, ideal conditions for the
formation of a strong radiation inversion and morning lows
ranging from the single digits below zero to around -15F.
Elsewhere, light snowfall and cloud cover is keeping the
Champlain Valley relatively warm as a decent moisture flux is
ongoing off of Champlain; lows generally from the single digits
above zero away from Lake Champlain to around 15F on and
adjacent to the Lake. Dry air aloft will keep these showers
light to just flurries with only a dusting to less than 0.5"
possible for southern Chittenden/northern Addison counties.
Very little moisture is progged in the 1000-500mb layer today
leading to clearing skies and light winds as high pressure
builds over the North Country. This will set up a cold night
that starts mainly cloud free with mainly locations seeing lows
in the single digits around 0F and coldest hollows dipping below
-10F.

Clouds increase late tonight and early Thursday as low pressure
centered over southern Canada pushes a positively tilted trough
and surface cold front through the region during the day on
Thursday. QPF trends have been increasing with thermal profiles
warming. However, atmospheric profiles are generally weaker in
the presentation of warm air intrusion in the 925-850mb layer.
Warmest spots are towards southern Vermont with an isothermal
layer suggesting potential for some ice pellets Thursday
afternoon. Upslope southeasterly flow will favor eastern slopes
of the Green Mountains; QPF was increased in this area with the
expectation that orographic lift will help squeeze out moisture.
For now, most locations should see 1-2 inches with higher
elevation and favored easterly slopes seeing 2-5 inches. The
biggest question is centered on ice accretion. Profiles show a
large decrease in cloud ice across the dendritic growth zone
later Thursday afternoon and evening. This signature is present
pretty much across the entire North Country indicating
potential for a period of freezing drizzle as moisture is
exiting. Just how much ice occurs will be subject to further
timing adjustments and any moisture changes in the late
afternoon. For now, capped ice amounts from a trace towards the
Canadian border to a few hundredths for southern locations.
Impacts from this ice is suspect as well given that it will be
falling on snow rather than bare surfaces. Still the combination
of a wintry mix could make travel difficult late Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Wednesday...As low pressure passes to the north of
the region, precipitation will continue into Thursday night. The
lack of cloud ice and limited moisture Thursday night looks to lead
to a period of drizzle and/or freezing drizzle overnight, with some
minor ice accretion expected before precipitation transitions back
to snow as the frontal boundary pushes towards Friday morning.
Friday looks to be quite breezy, with a sharp pressure gradient
across the region with departing low pressure. In addition to the
gusty winds, some upslope showers as well as some heavier snow
showers may be possible during the morning as the front pushes
across the region, although there is still plenty of uncertainty,
especially with available moisture. Temperatures will be non-diurnal
during much of Thursday night, with temperatures reaching the upper
20s and lower 30s Thursday evening before colder air arrives Friday.
Temperatures on Friday will stay near steady for much of the day, in
the 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EST Wednesday...The active weather pattern continues as
we head into the weekend into early next week. Another system looks
to arrive late Saturday into Sunday, bringing another period of
precipitation to the region. Current guidance supports a colder and
snowier solution across the region rather than a wintry mix with the
low tracking to our, but there is still plenty of uncertainty at
this time so stay tuned. After this weekend system, a brief period
of ridging looks to build in before the next system arrives late
Tuesday. Temperatures late this week into early next week look to
be seasonable, with highs in the 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
in the single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected
with 1000-500mb moisture profiles becoming quite dry. As such,
chances of IFR/MVFR were scaled back except where mountain waves
continue like over EFK/MPV with MVFR CIGs prevalent. General
flow starts northwesterly with terrain induced gusts to around
15kts for MPV. Flow will pivot westerly overnight with some low
level moisture transport possible over SLK that could result in
some mainly MVFR CIGs in the 10-14Z time window. SLK IFR
chances are now less than 10%, but can`t completely rule out a
low stratus deck around 12Z. With decreasing moisture profiles
after 12Z, expect skies to become SKC through the day as high
pressure builds across the North Country allowing winds to
become light. MSS may be a bit of an outlier as flow channels
southwesterly along the St Lawrence Valley with some light
gusts above 10Kts. After 00Z, terrain wind effects will become
prevalent with lack of gradient; SE winds at RUT/BTV due to
drainage flow while light and variable for most other locations.



Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SN, Likely FZDZ.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
FZDZ, Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Definite SN.
Sunday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SN, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Boyd