636
FXUS61 KBTV 171421
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1021 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue to support widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorms
remain possible today. After the recent stretch of warmth, much
cooler conditions arrive SUnday and will linger into the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1016 AM EDT Saturday...Scattered thunderstorms continue
this morning with some elements being strong. There have been
reports of trees down and hail ranging 0.25-0.88" in diameter.
The main threat has been hail and frequent lightning. This round
of storms continues, but models project another round of
increased instability for this afternoon that could result in
more severe thunderstorms. Finally, heavy rainfall has
accompanied these storms and additional storms may result in
localized flash flooding.

Previous Discussion...An upper level low centered over the
Great Lakes will continue to meander eastward, with the showery and
active weather pattern continuing. Some patchy fog that developed
overnight in locations where rain fell yesterday will gradually
diminish through the morning. Several rounds of showers and possible
thunderstorms are expected today, with the first round of showers
moving through in the early morning and then additional convection
in the afternoon. The greatest chances for strong to locally severe
thunderstorms looks to be between noon and 8 PM, although some
convection may develop even earlier. SPC continues to maintain the
Slight Risk across the region. Tall CAPE profiles and high PWAT
values also support locally heavy rainfall rates in storms that do
develop. WPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk ERO given the
higher rainfall rates, with the greatest threat for any flash
flooding in locations that receive multiple rounds of showers. In
general, about 0.5 to 1.0 of rain can be expected today, although it
will largely depend on where showers develop. Another day of warmer
temperatures is expected, with highs generally in 70s to near 80
degrees.

A cold front will push through the region late tonight, with a much
cooler airmass filtering into the region. Overnight low temperatures
tonight will be much cooler than previous nights, generally in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Showers will continue to persist late tonight
into SUnday as the upper low tracks across northern New York. High
temperatures will struggle on Sunday, only climbing into the 50s and
low 60s after the recent warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 413 AM EDT Saturday...A deep upper low will remain just to our
northeast on Monday, but will gradually pull away. During the day,
it will absorb another shortwave. With sufficient moisture
lingering, showers should redevelop, especially over northern
mountains. Breezy northwest winds 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25
underneath abundant cloud cover will result in a well below normal
temperature forecast. Temperatures will mainly stay in the 50s,
though a spot 60 is possible in the lower Connecticut River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 413 AM EDT Saturday...For Tuesday, the upper low responsible
for our stretch of active weather will shift far enough east that
its influence should end. However, another upper low will quickly
take its place out of the north. Ensemble forecasts depict a range
of different scenarios due to disagreement on the track of the new
upper low. NBM probabilities of precipitation suggest keeping a
20-40 percent chance of rain in the forecast, mainly over northern
Vermont.

The overall weather pattern favors above normal precipitation. After
what appears to be a dry Wednesday morning, the new upper low phases
with a potent system across the Plains and then subsequently gets
blocked by an amplifying ridge across the Canadian Maritimes. A
broad, slow moving area of low pressure will loft precipitation
northwards late Wednesday as it moves up the Ohio River Valley. Then
the question will become when can stacked low pressure finally get
out of here. Ensemble MSLP suggests its still hanging near the Gulf
of Maine on Saturday. Expect wet and cool conditions to prevail the
latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z SUNDAY...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all terminals, with just some lingering IFR at KMPV from low
stratus and patchy fog. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected throughout the day today, with
visibility restrictions possible within any heavier showers that
pass through. While confidence is high that showers and
thunderstorms will occur, there is lower confidence in the exact
timing and placement of these showers so PROB30 groups were
utilized throughout the forecast period. After all of the
precipitation, MVFR ceilings are likely to develop later this
afternoon into the overnight hours. Winds will continue out of
the southwest and could gust 15-20 knots at times, higher in
thunderstorms. Winds will become more westerly towards the end
of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Kremer