428
FXUS61 KBTV 230611
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
111 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break in precipitation, more elevationally dependent
snow and rain spreads back through much of the region late tonight.
This time, greater precipitation amounts will be focused over
central and eastern Vermont, where light snow accumulations are
expected primarily tomorrow morning. Then a breezy, upslope pattern
will develop, supporting several inches of snow through the weekend
in the northern Green Mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 AM EST Saturday...Based on radar and 00Z forecast
data, have modified weather and QPF through the next 12 hours
resulting in small changes to snowfall. Admittedly even in this
very near term, the precipitation forecast has fairly low
confidence. Overall it looks like most of the precipitation
upstream in southern Maine will be aimed at northeastern Vermont
and delayed a bit farther south and west. Meanwhile, very light
rain and mountain snow is ongoing in the southern Greens and
bands of precipitation will tend to stay in this area without
expanding northward. We have also seen localized dense fog in
central Vermont dissipate as higher level moisture has continued
to fill in, with cloudy skies now areawide.

Previous discussion...A pronounced dry slot over the region
continues to bring mostly dry weather this afternoon and
tonight, with surface low pressure centered over the Catskills
of New York. After becoming fairly scattered this afternoon,
cloud cover will increase throughout the evening ahead of the
next round of precipitation arriving late tonight into tomorrow
morning as low pressure strengths off the New England coast.
Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the 30s, with
locations near Lake Champlain closer to 40.

The next round of precipitation will bring the greatest amounts of
rain to eastern Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom, which missed out
a bit during the earlier precipitation. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning above
1500ft as snow levels lower, with an inch or so along the spine of
the Greens. High temperatures will generally be near seasonal
normal, generally in the 40s but breezy northwesterly flow due to a
tight pressure gradient will make it feel quite brisk. By tomorrow
afternoon, widespread precipitation will taper off, with upslope
snow regime becoming favored with blocked flow. These showers will
continue to bring additional inches of snow accumulation to the
higher summits, generally above 2000ft elevation. Overnight lows
Saturday night will be very similar to tonight, with temperatures
dropping into the upper 20 and 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...Upslope snow conditions with light rain in
the valleys continue on Sunday as an upper vort moves across the
northern part of the region before quickly being absorbed by the
retreating upper low. Models still show weak moisture in the DGZ
which should limit the high elevation snow to a couple inches during
the day. Lower elevations east of the Greens could see snow light
snow lingering through mid day, but totals right now look to be less
than an inch. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the day
out of the northwest before finally abating after midnight. As
precipitation comes to an end Sunday, evening cloud cover will
decrease overnight as a weak ridge moves into the region bringing a
brief period of dry weather. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s
to mid 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Friday...While the period will start off quiet,
things will get active as we move later into the week. Monday will
be dry for most of the day as weak ridging moves through the region.
This will give way to rapidly deepening upper trough that moves
through the Great Lakes region Monday night and into our area early
Tuesday morning. Timing will be key as the system moves in, some
areas, east of the Greens and NEK in particular could still below
freezing at the surface which could lead to pre-dawn freezing rain.
Right now, the models are struggling with the system this far out,
so while the forecast currently has rain-snow mix, keeping an eye on
the future runs and the freezing rain in particular will be very
important, especially with potentially early travelers on the move
for the holiday weekend. The good news is that temperatures will
warm through the day, changing over any mix to just rain, save the
highest elevations.

Wednesday will see mainly mountain snow showers with a potential for
a few flakes in the lower Vallie`s due to a mix of upslope and lake
effect snow. While Thanksgiving Day should start out dry, another
system moves in that looks to bring another round of snow and some
rain in the valleys. It`s still far out, but right now things look
to be unsettled for the entire Thanksgiving Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Ceilings will trend IFR areawide at most
sites over the next few hours, then hold steady for a bit before
gradually rising during the day. Light precipitation will is
likely primarily between 10Z and 20Z and especially at EFK, MPV,
and BTV. While rain is most likely, snow should mix in at SLK,
EFK and MPV for a period of time. Rain/snow should be confined
to showers with more limited coverage during the day tomorrow.
Winds will generally be northwesterly, although trending
westerly after 00Z, with speeds peaking in the afternoon and
early evening with gusts of 15 to 25 knots. Note there may be a
short period of low level turbulence this morning between about
12 and 14Z at RUT when 2000 foot northwesterly winds peak near
40 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Definite SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Myskowski