519
FXUS61 KBTV 181933
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this
evening into tonight as a frontal system moves across the region
this weekend. More mild and breezy conditions will develop
tomorrow with continued scattered shower activity areawide.
Temperatures will cool behind a cold front Saturday night into
Sunday with periods of changeable weather and warming
conditions next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Unsettled weather will begin to move
into the region this evening into tonight with unseasonable
warmth. Thunderstorm chances remain during the overnight period,
but chances this evening are decreasing. Winds will continue to
be breezy, with increasing strength by tomorrow.

Clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms are tracking out of
Ontario, but with significant dry air ahead of it, little to no
accumulation is expected this afternoon/evening. After sunset,
surface moisture will recover with moisture increasing as a warm
front approaches from the southwest. Dry air and lessening CAPE
values will help limit any thunderstorm activity from this initial
round of showers with most shower activity confined to the
northern portions of the region, particularly in northern New
York.

By late this evening, more clusters of showers and
thunderstorms will move from the southwest into the region. This
decaying area of thunderstorms will be the remnants of the
convection over the Great Lakes earlier today. As instability
aloft increases overnight from an elevated mixed layer, the
probability of thunder will increase in a narrow spatial
corridor near the international border. Soundings show most of
the CAPE is surface based, and thus any chances for hail will be
low to none. Briefly heavy rainfall is possible, especially in
northern New York with QPF amounts near a quarter to locally a
half inch of rain, with sharply lower amounts to the south.
Temperatures overnight will not drop much from this afternoon
due to the shower activity with values in the mid-50s across the
area. Thunderstorm probabilities will decrease towards sunrise
as the elevated mixed layer erodes and moves east.

Lingering scattered showers will still be possible through Saturday
morning ahead of a cold front. Strong southerly waa in the
Champlain Valley will help drive temperatures to near 70 degrees
in the warm sector on Saturday. As the cold front approaches
the area by Saturday afternoon, westerly wind gusts could be
gusty at times up to 40 mph, especially across northern Clinton
and Franklin Counties in New York. Gusts will continue through
Saturday night with lows falling back to near freezing in the
Adirondacks and near 40 in the valleys under modest caa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Breezy conditions will continue on
Sunday as frontal system departs to our east and ridge of
surface high pressure builds in from the west. The strongest
winds on Sunday will be in the downslope areas east of the Green
Mountains. No precipitation is expected. Winds will calm down
Sunday night as high pressure ridges into the area. Maximum
temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to around 50,
with minimum temperatures Sunday night dipping into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Next approaching system will be
entering the Great Lakes region on Monday, some warm air
advection precipitation associated with the warm front will
reach our western zones later in the day Monday. Widespread rain
showers are then expected for Monday night as cold front
crosses our area with low pressure system passing to our north.
Precipitation will wind down on Tuesday and upper level flow
will become flattened out and progressive headed into the middle
of the week. High pressure will build into the area mid week
and warming temperatures are anticipated. Towards the end of the
week models diverge and it`s less certain what weather we have
in store.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Clouds generally at or above 10000 ft agl
have spread over the region. Virga is evident on radar, and will
likely be unable to reach the surface for some time. Low level
dry air will erode and light rain could start reaching the
ground about 22z-01z. Increasing southwest winds at 2000 ft agl
of 40 to 50 knots will likely result in areas of low level wind
shear, even as surface winds remain at 8 to 13 knots sustained
with gusts 17 to 25 knots continuing much of the night.
Precipitation will come in waves and will be convective in
nature. Some thunder will be possible. The timing will be very
difficult, and the location will depend on where showers track,
as they follow a west-southwest to northeast arc along the
international border. Any thunderstorms could produce 2SM
visibility, but have generally kept the forecast without thunder
and down to 3-5SM along the northern tier in PROB30s since it
is possible convection tracks north of the international border.
Beyond 12z, winds will gradually veer. Ceilings will trend to
2000-5000 ft agl, and then after 16z, wind speeds will begin to
increase to 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 28 knots.
This will at least limit LLWS. Continued intervals of rain
showers and breezy conditions are expected beyond 18z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance
SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several sites have a chance to tie their record High Minimum
temperature this Saturday.

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 19:
KBTV: 56/1914
KPBG: 55/1976
KSLK: 50/1976

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Haynes
CLIMATE...BTV Team