564
FXUS61 KBTV 161750
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Although Saturday evening and night will be dry, precipitation
chances will increase on Sunday as a cold front drops across the
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, along with
a noticeable temperature drop in the afternoon. A taste of fall will
occur much of next week with temperatures around and below
climatological normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 149 PM EDT Saturday...A picture perfect afternoon and evening
are expected for the remainder of today. The fair weather cumulus
that has developed this afternoon will wane as we approach sunset,
leading to a mostly clear evening with temperatures falling into the
70s. Moisture will start to lift into the region overnight, and this
along with increasing clouds ahead of tomorrow`s front will serve to
keep lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

The cold front will march through from north to south on Sunday.
While showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front,
activity will be scattered at best. The front itself will have a
fairly sharp temperature gradient, but forcing isn`t looking all
that impressive. CAPE will be limited due to poor mid-level lapse
rates. PWATs should be in the 1.5-1.75 inch range, so there could be
some briefly moderate rainfall rates, mainly in northern areas since
the front will gradually wash out as it moves southward. Hence,
while most locations will see less than a quarter of an inch of
rain, there could be some locally higher amounts of around a third
of an inch, especially in the north where forcing will be better.
All that`s to say that Sunday won`t be a total washout and any
rainfall won`t be enough to put an appreciable dent in the dry
conditions. Perhaps the bigger impacts from the front will be the
sharply dropping temperatures in the afternoon as winds quickly
shift to the north. Tomorrow`s highs will be quite variable as a
result, ranging from the lower 70s in the St Lawrence Valley to the
mid/upper 80s in south-central VT. Winds will become breezy post-
front as well, particularly over Lake Champlain, where sustained
winds of 15 to around 20 kt are expected. The front moves through
pretty quickly, and any showers/thunderstorms will exit to our south
by sunset. Much cooler and drier air will spread over the area
Sunday night, clearing out skies and dropping temperatures into the
40s to near 50F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 149 PM EDT Saturday...Surface high pressure dominates for the
start of the work week, keeping Monday dry with ample sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures should warm into the 70s in most locations,
though wouldn`t be surprised to see some spots in the
Adirondacks/Greens to struggle to hit the 70F mark. Both the
Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys could have a bit of a brisk
north/northwest wind respectively due to channeling of the flow.
Monday night will feature increasing mid/high clouds ahead of our
next system, which should help keep it a little warmer than Sunday
night. Still, expect lows will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 149 PM EDT Saturday...A weak shortwave will pass through
Tuesday and Wednesday, likely bringing a period of showers. EPS
ensembles favor much more widespread precipitation while GEFS
members favor more scattered rain. While Erin will stay well out to
sea and not bring any significant impacts to the region, enhanced
easterly flow could slightly increase low-level convergence with
northwest flow behind the shortwave and aid these showers. GEFS, EPS
and CAN ensembles bring a 40-50 percent chance of seeing more than
an inch or rain. While there will likely be some embedded convective
elements that the ensembles will struggle to represent, the
precipitation should be synoptic enough that these probabilities
will be decently representative. Clouds and showers will keep highs
under climatological normals, and they look to be in the 60s on
Wednesday for most areas. Temperatures look to warm back to around
and above climatological normals heading into the weekend, but the
humidity should remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through this
evening. Patchy fog will develop across the region tonight, with the
widest coverage in the valleys of eastern Vermont. It is likely to
reach MPV for a bit late in the night. It is much less likely at
SLK, though it cannot be ruled out. There is maybe a 20 percent
chance SLK sees a brief period of fog. Winds will generally be light
and terrain driven through tonight, though they will be more
southerly in the Champlain Valley. A strong cold front comes through
late tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon from north to south. It
will bring a broken line of rain, though most of it should not be
heavy enough to significantly reduce visibilities. It will bring a
sudden wind shift, from southerly to northerly. There will also be
low clouds behind it, where MVFR and even a brief period of IFR
ceilings are possible.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski