437
FXUS61 KBTV 191924
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will trend warmer each day through Tuesday with
high pressure centered over the North Country. Patchy frost will be
possible again tonight, but overnight temperatures should gradually
warm over the next few days thereafter. Sunday will be breezy,
especially across northern New York, but winds should be light
overall as well, resulting in very pleasant conditions. Our next
chance of rain doesn`t arrive until late Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...The weather is nothing short of perfect.
We`re in the 60s, the winds are light, the Sun is out, and the fall
foliage remains beautiful. Dry weather will ensure efficient
radiation for most, but winds will increase at 500-1000 foot
elevation over northern New York and southerly channeled flow into
the Champlain Valley may start to inhibit cooling in unsheltered
areas. The St. Lawrence Valley will be warmest, with upper 30s to
lower 40s. The Champlain Valley is a bit of a question mark, with
forecast soundings showing varying degrees of stability or
decoupling at the lower levels. Most recent LAV runs are depicting
mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Presently, mid 30s to near 40 is
shown the Champlain Valley, which is near the NBM 10th percentile.
Sheltered locations of the Adirondacks and Vermont should still fall
into the upper 20s to around freezing. There should be some frost,
but it will be more localized as a result, along with some bust
potential. Given how marginal frost conditions will be compared to
the last three nights, we have elected to not post Frost Advisories.
However, frost will be depicted on the public forecasts, and if you
still have tender plants outside, consider taking care of them for
the night.

Sunday will be another beautiful day. A trough passing well to our
north and increasing thermal gradients will be enough to cause winds
to pick up during the afternoon. Winds at 925mb will increase
towards 35 knots, but the inversion layer will be there as opposed
to ridge tops and wind shear is not unidirectional. So the potential
for stronger gusts mixing down isn`t very high overall. There could
be some 25 to 30 mph gusts in the northern St. Lawrence Valley and
through Malone and Ellenburg Depot, but the rest of the region will
mainly stick to 5 to 10 mph southwest winds. We should be a couple
degrees warmer tomorrow as compared to today. So this will mean mid
60s to lower 70s. Southwest flow remains in place overnight, which
will keep overnight lows much warmer. Relative humidity values will
also be dry with minimum readings of 30 to 35 percent likely. It
still appears eastern Vermont will remain sheltered from this and
fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. For the rest of the region,
expect mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...A passing trough in northern Canada will
compound the pressure gradient across the North Country early Monday
allowing for an continued southwesterly breezes with gusts ranging
10-15 mph in general. Like the previous forecast noted, 13-16C 925mb
temperatures will favor continued warming coupled with a little
mixing pushing temperatures well above seasonal average into the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Aside from some breezes, a few fair weather
cumulus clouds, and unseasonably warm temperatures, there will be
very little in the way of sensible weather. Overnight, the gradient
begins to relax with temperatures cooling mainly into the 40s to
around 50 degrees, much warmer than previous nights due to continued
breezes during the first portion of the overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Saturday...Models continue to favor a sharp frontal
system to approach the region midweek. This amplifying pattern
supports increasing winds Tuesday into Wednesday with some gusts
20-30 mph and warm air advection/downsloping contributing to even
warmer temperatures in the 70s for most locations, upper 70s for
lower valleys where compressional warming maximizes. Cloud cover
increases Wednesday with precipitation chances possibly beginning
Wednesday afternoon - a little sooner than previous model consensus.
Passage is still expected Wednesday night with shower chances
decreasing through Thursday. Notable model signatures for a rapid
cool down are present, suggesting continued vigilance concerning
wind potential along the frontal boundary given the strength of the
projected thermal gradient. Highs in the 40s and low 50s are
anticipated Thursday/Friday which are below seasonal averages.
Guidance favors returning migratory ridging heading into the weekend
with some warming to around seasonal averages favored.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Conditions VFR with variable or terrain
driven flow around 5 kts, except close to 10 at KMSS and KPBG.
Winds become light overnight, although will increase to 15 to 20
knots around 500 ft agl over northern New York and much of
Vermont. This should limit fog to KMPV for an hour or two from
about 10z to 12z. Skies remain mostly clear, and wind speeds
pick up to 7 to 10 knots from 15-18z Sunday from the south or
southwest, but will be southeast at KPBG.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes