044
FXUS61 KBTV 222321
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
721 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will persist through tomorrow, and the brief warming
trend will continue. A slow moving frontal boundary will move
through on Sunday and Monday, bringing continued chances for
showers. Cooler and drier air returns for midweek, though a few
showers will remain possible as weak disturbances periodically pass
nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Friday...The region remains under an area of high
pressure, sandwiched between Erin to the east and an incoming trough
to the west. The center of this high will quickly shift off to the
east tonight and this will cause southerly flow to develop.
Temperatures will drop off quickly this evening, but as winds begin
to increase later in the night, they will likely bottom off or begin
to rise, particularly in the Champlain Valley and Route 11 corridor
in New York. These winds should minimize fog tonight, though it
cannot be completely ruled out in the most favored valleys of
eastern Vermont where the southerly flow reaches last. This
southerly flow will continue to increase in magnitude during the day
tomorrow, and gusts should reach the 10-20 mph range for most areas.
Channeled flow in the Champlain Valley and downsloping in the far
northern Adirondacks will cause some locally higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM EDT Friday...A deep trough slowly builds into the region
from Saturday night through Sunday night, pushing through a series
of boundaries. These boundaries will be accompanied by a few broken
lines of showers. There is a low chance of thunder as the
instability will be quite low and there will not be a well defined
front with significant forcing. The showers will likely be limited
to northern New York Saturday night, while they gradually expand
into Vermont during the day on Sunday. A more organized line of
showers looks to form Sunday night as convergence increases due to a
developing surface low to the east. A tightening pressure gradient
increases the southerly flow Saturday night into Sunday. Channeled
flow in the Champlain Valley and downsloping in the far northern
Adirondacks could cause localized gusts into the 30-35 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 158 PM EDT Friday...Progression of the passing wave
continues to become slower with guidance favoring some lingering
lift associated with the north-south oriented front Monday.
Highest chances of showers with isolated thunderstorms remains
along eastern Vermont, but a rare thunderstorm could be possible
off of moisture flow off of Lake Ontario under cyclonic flow
aloft. Elsewhere, isolated showers are possible do to lingering
upper low keeping lapse rates steep enough to allow for
convection as instability maximizes with daytime heating.
Shower chances could linger through mid week, but forcing likely
to decrease Tuesday and Wednesday. Cloud cover and projected
northwesterly flow support temperatures decreasing from the
mid/upper 70s on Monday into the low/mid 70s through the work
week. Pattern is expected to shift late week with brief ridging
possibly disrupting the ensconced long wave trough. Looking
farther, this long-wave trough pattern could persist with
periodic systems rolling down a large omega high situated over
the Canadian Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...Mainly VFR to prevail through the period.
Only exception will be KMPV, where another round of dense fog is
expected. There could also be some brief fog at KSLK and perhaps
KEFK, but certainty was too low include in the TAFs at this
time. LIFR/VLIFR likely in fog between 10z-12z Sat. Otherwise,
FEW-SCT mid clouds overnight will lower and become broken
Saturday afternoon, though ceilings remain AOA 5000 ft. Light
and variable winds will turn to the south/southwest Saturday
morning, increasing to 5-10 kt. Gusts to around 20 kt are
expected from 16z onward.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Hastings