735
FXUS61 KBTV 192349
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably cool conditions will persist through this
evening with clouds increasing. Starting tonight, light
rainfall totals are expected as a wave moves across central New
York with light rain lingering through Wednesday night.
Conditions trend drier and much warmer Thursday through
Saturday. The next widespread rainfall chances will be Sunday
with potential for a few thunderstorms as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Tuesday...After a pleasant and dry afternoon,
clouds increase this evening and overnight as low pressure moves
across central New York. This low is overwhelmingly favored to
weaken decreasing isentropic lift along its warm front. As such
model guidance continues to trend downward in QPF, especially
for northern locations where only a few hundredths to around
0.15 are now expected. Totals of 0.2-0.33" are probable along
the southern Adirondack slopes and towards central/southern
Vermont. Wind direction will favor southern slope aspects for
orographic lift while downsloping somewhat with some weak
shadowing on northern aspects. Clouds and light rain will keep
temperatures tamped down below seasonal averages Wednesday with
highs in the mid/upper 60s south and upper 60s to around 70
degrees north. Chances taper down sharply Wednesday night as the
wave passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Tuesday...Conditions become drier and more
seasonal Thursday and Thursday night with high pressure building
over the North Country. With highs in the 70s and dewpoints in
the 50s, it will be quite pleasant as skies clear. Overnight
lows are expected in the mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s with
potential for a few lower 40s in typically colder hollows due to
strong radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 153 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday and Saturday look like great
days for summer outdoor activities as temperatures trend above
normal but not overly hot. Timing of the next frontal system and
associated influx of humidity has continued to look later such
that even with some southerly flow on Saturday humidity will
remain low. In fact, high temperatures on Saturday have trended
more similar to Friday, perhaps only a few degrees higher. A
chance of showers Saturday late in the day with slight
thunderstorm chances in northern New York and westernmost
Vermont seems reasonable at this time with typical
uncertainties, but the strong model consensus at this time is to
have dry conditions until Saturday night.

Active weather is then expected in the Sunday - Monday timeframe,
when some beneficial rainfall is likely. While this will be our best
chance for widespread showers during the next several days, signals
for significant weather with regards to instability and moisture per
Extreme Forecast Index and other model guidance are low. There will
certainly be scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms, along with a low chance for severe thunderstorms
gradually expanding eastward associated with a slow moving, highly
amplified frontal system. A fairly broad ribbon of higher PWAT (only
about 1 standard deviation above normal) will promote efficient
rainfall along a pre-frontal trough or troughs, favorable for
multiple rounds of showers until the cold front pushes sometime
Monday. Because the associated low pressure system will be moving
northeastward, roughly parallel to the front, there is some heavy
rain potential even though the ingredients aren`t off the charts, in
part limited by instability and low level convergence with lack of a
southeasterly jet. Think forward motion will be enough to limit
training, and again, truly intense rainfall rates are unlikely.
While probabilistic data shows a low chance of 1" in 24 hours,
differences in timing and enhanced rainfall rates within convection
suggest event totals in most places could be 0.5" to 1.25" with
localized amounts approaching 2".

There is great agreement on the forecast scenario as often is the
case with strongly forced events, as all model clusters show
increasing coverage/chances of showers and thunderstorms from early
Sunday through Sunday night associated with the eastward progress of
the cold front. Differences are more apparent moving into Monday as
some guidance shows the upper level flow remaining more amplified
and others more dampened - a more amplified scenario would lead
to longer duration of showers and thunderstorms with perhaps
more of a lingering, low severe weather threat on Monday as well
as Sunday. Conditions should trend sharply cooler for Tuesday
as we get into westerly, cyclonic flow behind the cold front.
The large scale pattern resembles a cold season lake-effect
scenario, so it should be fairly unsettled but with pleasant
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...A few more hours of VFR conditions are
expected before light rain moves in overnight and ceilings and
visibilities trend toward MVFR. Currently observing radar
returns over the western half of our CWA, but with a dry layer
near the surface, much of this is just falling as virga. Expect
rain to reach the surface closer towards midnight tonight, with
showers steadiest in the morning hours Wednesday. Showers will
be light in intensity, and and visibilities should remain
generally above 5SM. Winds will generally be light
southerly/southeasterly.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Duell