178
FXUS61 KBTV 141654
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1254 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will continue through today before chances of
showers increase through the latter half of the week, especially
over the weekend. A warming trend will send temperatures above
average over the next several days, and humidity will begin to
increase, as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1248 PM EDT Wednesday...Did bump winds higher, especially
CPV where gusts up to 28 knots has been observed in the past
hour. Otherwise, temps and pops look good.

Previous discussion...Ridging remains in place early this
morning, keeping our region just on the periphery of deeper moisture
which lies just off to our southwest. As a result, we`ll start off
partly to mostly sunny this morning with precipitation remaining to
our south. However, expect the moisture will start to lift northward
later today and tonight as the ridge axis shifts east and flow turns
more toward the south. The main impact will be increasing clouds
through the day today. A few showers will be possible as well,
mainly in southern areas and generally after mid afternoon or so.
The increasing clouds and rising dewpoints will help to keep
temperatures a little cooler than yesterday with most spots peaking
in the 70s. However, can`t rule out a few 80F readings, especially
in the northern St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Clouds will
continue to increase overnight tonight, with isolated to perhaps
scattered shower activity also spreading northward. Forcing is
meager, so don`t anticipate much in the way of significant or
widespread precipitation. Lows will be on the milder side with most
areas remaining in the 50s to around 60F.

Shower chances will increase on Thursday as an upper trough
swings in from the west. Would still just expect scattered
coverage, but SB CAPE could approach 500 J/kg by the afternoon,
so a few thunderstorms will be possible. Highs will be similar
to today, mid 70s to around 80F, but it will start to feel a
little more humid with dewpoints approaching 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...Increased precipitation chances can be
expected for the end of work week as a closed low centered over the
Great Lakes region slowly pushes into the Northeast, bringing
showery weather and chances for thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous
showers can be expected Friday, continuing overnight, with a surface
warm front lifting into the region. Ensemble guidance continues to
show a 40 to 70 percent chance of surface-based CAPE exceeding 500
J/kg, supporting some pop- up thunderstorms throughout the afternoon,
especially across northern New York where higher probabilities
exist. High temperatures on Friday will be quite warm, generally in
the 70s with low 80s in some of the broader valleys. Overnight lows
will be on the mild side as well, only dropping into the 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...Another showery weekend can be expected
across the region this weekend as a closed upper low and associated
boundaries push through the region. A brief period of dry weather
looks likely Saturday morning, before the next round of showers and
possible thunderstorms arrives. While Saturday afternoon looks to be
rainy, there is some uncertainty to the thunderstorm potential and
how much instability will be available for convective development.
Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side on Saturday, with
highs in the 70s to near 80. Overnight lows look to be more
seasonable based on the timing of the cold front passing through,
with temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s.

As the aforementioned upper low slowly meanders eastward, shower
chances will continue to linger across the region for Sunday into
early next week. Temperatures will trend closer to, and even a touch
below, seasonal normals for this time of year with highs generally
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites
thru this evening with south to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots
with localized gusts 15 to 25 knots at RUT/BTV. As moisture
continues to increase on southeast flow, expecting cigs to lower
toward MVFR at MPV by 06z and continue thru 12z Thurs. Rest of
the sites should stay VFR with cigs lowering into the 3500-5000
feet level overnight into Thurs. Winds decrease under 10 knots
by sunset this evening. A spot shower is possible at SLK/MSS,
but probability is too low for mention in taf fcst attm.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber