Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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752 FXUS61 KBTV 091956 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 256 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Calm weather conditions will result in a cool evening and Sunday morning. South winds will return Sunday afternoon with temperatures trending warmer and a warm front approaching. Rain showers are likely Sunday night into Monday. Then, a cold front will drop south Monday night into Tuesday with a few mountain snow showers before the system departs. Cool, dry weather will take place over the middle of the week, followed by a weak weather disturbance possibly approaching towards the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EST Saturday...The center of a broad 1032mb surface high is nearly overhead. It`s a very beautiful day, and winds are finally starting to wind down across the region. Increasingly dry air aloft and very light winds will make for strong radiational cooling conditions tonight. The forecast continues to lean in the direction of MOS guidance. Temperatures should range from the teens to the upper 20s. By Sunday morning, the upper ridge will crest and southerly flow begin to moderate our cool air mass. High clouds currently over the Great Lakes region will shift towards our area. Despite filtered sunlight, we should still rise into the 50s across much of the region. A warm front will approach late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. The trend of a weaker front has reversed somewhat, and the overall timing has also begun to trend back towards its original position as well. So have slid the general timing of highest PoPs forward a couple hours, but otherwise, everything looks on track for numerous showers to quickly lift northeast with about a tenth of an inch. Towards Monday morning, precipitation will be in the process of scattering out and transitioning towards a more orographic regime. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EST Saturday...An unsettled start to the week is expected as widespread precipitation associated with a warm front moving through the region becomes showery. A few breaks in the showers may be possible as we head into the afternoon, although it will still be a bit dreary with plenty of cloud cover across the region and breezy winds. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected Monday afternoon, with highs in the 50s to near 60F in a few locations, which is about 10 degrees or so warmer that climatological normals for this time of year. Shower activity will redevelop Monday evening through the overnight hours as a cold front passes through the region, which much of the shower activity focused across the northern half of the forecast area. As the front moves through, winds will become more northwesterly, with upslope showers becoming more favorable. Snow levels will lower Monday night, with some snow mixing in, and light snow accumulations possible across the higher terrain, although any accumulations to be less than an inch. Overall rainfall amounts will be a few tenths of an inch, ranging from 0.5 inches across the Adirondacks and northern Greens to only 0.1 across parts of southern Vermont. Temperatures overnight Monday will cool into the 30s to near 40 in the broad valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Saturday...A few lingering upslope showers will continue Tuesday morning, before high pressure begins to build in for the middle of the week. A period of dry weather and mostly sunny skies can be expected for Wednesday. As we head into the later half of the week, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the next feature that approaches the region. The latest 12Z GFS shows a shortwave traversing across the region, bringing another round of showers this week. Meanwhile, the latest 12 ECMWF shows surface high pressure as the dominant feature, with the shortwave falling apart before it even reaches the region. Given the diverging solutions, continued to stick with the NBM for precipitation, showing some slight chance to chance PoPs. If the more robust GFS solution is correct, some snow accumulation could be possible across the higher elevations, but it still remains highly uncertain. Temperatures look to be seasonably cool for the upcoming week, with highs generally in the 40s and overnight lows generally in the 20s to near freezing. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...Gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon, with only a handful of fair weather cumulus clouds around 5000 ft at lowest. Over KMSS and KSLK, surface winds have already begun to die down, but it may take until about 21 or 22z for remaining terminals to see appreciable drops in wind speed and gusts. Light and variable winds are expected overnight with clear skies. After 12z, south winds will return and gradually increase to 4 to 9 knots. High clouds will stream in from the west at or above 15000 ft agl. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty winds have begun to slowly subside. Parts of Vermont are still periodically gusting to about 20 mph. Relative humidity values range between about 28 and 38 percent across the region. Winds will more quickly slacken after sunset, and strong radiational cooling will promote good relative humidity recovery overnight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Haynes FIRE WEATHER...