595
FXUS61 KBTV 052236
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
636 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will continue across the region through this evening
and overnight. Some mixed precipitation is possible in the higher
elevations, particularly in eastern Vermont. Winds will increase
this afternoon and remain gusty into the first part of tonight. The
highest gusts will be in the northern Champlain Valley. Showers wind
down by Sunday afternoon, but temperatures will remain below normal
heading into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 635 PM EDT Saturday...Quick evening update to make some minor
tweaks, but overall forecast is in really good shape and
panning out nicely. With a brief break in rain as seen on radar,
wind gusts are ramping up as expected. Currently observing
surface gusts 25 to 40 mph over parts of northern NY, which
lines up well with forecast. Further east, gusts 35 to 45 mph
are reported over the northern Champlain Valley, where a Wind
Advisory remains in place until 2 PM tomorrow morning. Expect
gusts to peak generally between 6 PM and 9 PM this evening.

With the stronger gusts from the south, temperatures are a touch
warmer than forecast over the northern slopes of the Adirondacks, so
have tweaked hourly temperatures to better reflect this trend using
some higher res guidance.  Total measured precipitation thus far
with the system is only between a few hundredths and a few tenths
for much of the area, which is slightly under performing based
on forecasts. Still another quarter to half inch to come in many
areas, especially in parts of Vermont, but have overall reduced
storm total precip amounts just slightly in accordance with obs
over the last 12 hours.

Previous discussion...We`re seeing a bit of a break in the
precipitation spread into the region this afternoon. This should
allow for more mixing through the rest of the daylight hours today,
so expect we`ll start to see wind gusts ramp up shortly. The
strongest gusts will be this evening across the northern Champlain
Valley, where some spots could gust up to 50 mph at times; wouldn`t
be surprised to see some locally higher gusts. After peaking this
evening, wind should gradually die down as we head toward midnight.
Therefore, the Wind Advisory still looks good and remains in effect
until 2 am Sunday. Outside of the Advisory area, gusts of 25 to 40
mph are expected through this evening, then likewise subsiding
overnight.

Precipitation today has generally been in the form of rain as
expected. Temperatures did fall a few degrees when the rain began in
earnest earlier today, but most locations only dipped down into the
mid 30s, at worst. A quick look at road temperatures courtesy of
VTrans shows that they are also still above freezing with just wet
surfaces at this time. There could be some additional cooling as we
head into the evening hours, so there could still be some wintry
mixed precipitation in places, particularly east of the Green
Mountains. However, any significant ice accumulation will remain
limited to mainly above 1500 ft.

After this break this afternoon, expect we`ll see another round of
showers overnight as a surface trough crosses the region from west
to east. Temperatures should hold fairly steady or perhaps cool just
a few degrees through midnight, so as mentioned above, expect
primarily rain to fall. However, colder air will start to move in
late tonight into early Sunday morning behind the trough, lowering
snow levels. Therefore, rain will start to transition to snow,
particularly in northern NY and northeast VT. However, the incoming
air mass is also fairly dry, so decreasing moisture will at the same
time lead to waning shower coverage, with precipitation generally
over by afternoon. Steepening lapse rates will make for a breezy
day, though not as gusty as this afternoon/evening will be. We`ll
see increasing sun in the afternoon, but the wind will likely make
our highs in the 40s to around 50F feel a little chilly.

After a dry evening, light snow will start to spread northward into
our region as a wave of low pressure slides along a frontal boundary
to our south. There`s still some question how far north the moisture
can make it, but at this time it appears areas north of a Lake
Placid NY to Montpelier VT line should remain dry. Even still,
southern locations should only see light snow amounts, with most
areas getting less than an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...The short term will be dominated by a
slow moving digging mid-level trough across the Great Lakes. A
Stationary front in the Mid- Atlantic will keep moisture convergence
centered in southern Vermont to begin Monday. Snow Showers will
change over to rain showers as diurnal heating increases
temperatures at the surface across Rutland and Windsor Counties.
Highs overall will be in the low to mid 40s, with 30s in the
mountains. Lows Monday night will be slightly below normal with
values near 30 in the valleys and mid 20s in the higher terrain. As
showers taper off Monday evening in southern Vermont, winds will
shift to the west as the mid-level trough moves into the region.

There is still some track uncertainty in the models which yield
different variations of snow and moisture heading into Tuesday.
Ensembles in general are in agreement on the trough moving through
Monday night with at least a shortwave traversing across the St.
Lawrence Valley. Decent caa will accompany the trough, however,
moisture advection varies. The GFS deterministic model does not
deepen the low as it tracks north into Quebec which would yield
showery snow and less in the way of accumulations. The ECMWF
solution shows a track across the international border which would
allow more moisture connection into the Mid-Atlantic and
significantly more snow. Snow 25th-75th percentiles vary from a 2 to
9 inches in portions of the northern Adirondacks, and a dusting to 5
inches in the Champlain Valley. Given current radar observations,
the ECMWF seems to be initialized better, and hence this forecast
leans more into that solution and thus on the snowier side. With the
timing of the snow, the Tuesday morning commute could be slick as
well. Regardless of track, as the shortwave moves through Monday
night into Tuesday, winds look to be gusty, especially Tuesday
afternoon as snow showers taper off. With mixing heights near 750mb,
top of the boundary layer winds are near 35 mph. Temperatures
Tuesday will be seasonably cool with highs in the upper 20s to low
30s. However, behind the precipitation temperatures will be cold
Tuesday night with values in the upper teens to low 20s across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Most of the long term still looks to be
on the active side, with significant uncertainty for the end of next
week. Wednesday look to be a brief reprieve from any precipitation
as flow becomes zonal across the area. Temperatures look to be
relatively seasonal in the 30s and 40s. Those looking for sunshine,
will unfortunately, be disappointed as clouds look to remain through
this period, with only a slight chance in clouds breaking late
Wednesday night after sunset. Our cyclonic flow driver to the north
in James Bay will usher in another trough Thursday afternoon which
begins the uncertainty in the models. The GEFS model shows a more
sharply amplified trough Thursday afternoon, which would bring
precipitation into the area as early as Thursday morning. Whereas
the EPS ensemble is more broad which does not allow for an energy
connection, and holds off precipitation until later Thursday. Both
ensembles by Friday have come into agreement that a closed-off
coastal low will deepen in the Mid-Atlantic and move northeastward
in addition to a shortwave that will track out of the Great Lakes.
The interaction between these systems is not resolved well across
the ensembles. The EPS merges the energy from these systems quickly
and is more progressive, the GEFS shows somewhat of a Fujiwara
Effect between the two which would wrap the coastal low into our
region. Impact and forecast uncertainty remain high and we will
continue to monitor and update as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR giving way to MVFR by 20z as ceilings
lower in widespread rain. Ceilings will remain low MVFR through
06Z, then lowering to IFR at all terminals by 09z, remaining so
through 14z before lifting back to MVFR. Steady rain will become
more showery around 21z, but another round of steadier
precipitation looks to move into mainly MPV/RUT 06z-10z.
Visibility generally 5-6SM in steady rain, but occasionally
lowering to 3-4SM in heavier pockets. Showers give way from
northwest to southeast 09z-15z, with all terminals dry by the
end of the TAF period.

Surface winds will continue to increase from the south/southeast
this morning (locally east/northeast in the Saint Lawrence
Valley). Gusts of 20-25kt expected at most terminals, except
around 30kt at BTV/PBG. In addition to gusty surface winds,
expect widespread LLWS as a strong southerly low level jet
moves overhead. Areas of turbulence are also likely, especially
around terrain.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ028.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Duell/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Hastings