735
FXUS61 KBTV 301915
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Unsettled weather will continue across the region today,
with high pressure bringing quieter weather for tomorrow and the
start of the weekend.

2. Widespread, potentially heavy rain is expected at times from
Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Isolated flooding is
possible.

3. Some lingering chances for showers and perhaps thunderstorms
will continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:  Although much less widespread than the last few days,
shower activity continues across the region this afternoon as
surface low pressure continues to shift eastward. Precipitation
amounts have been fairly light this afternoon, generally 0.5 inches
or so across Rutland and Windsor counties where showers have been
more persistent. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be entirely ruled
out this afternoon, especially with increased breaks in the cloud
cover and some modest surface-based CAPE values near 500 J/kg or so
per SPC mesoscale analysis.

High pressure will build into the region for the end of the week and
the start of the weekend, bring some drier conditions for the next
few days. With abundant surface moisture after the recent rainfall
and the building high, patchy dense fog development looks favorable
overnight tonight and possibly again tomorrow night into Saturday.
morning. A few stray showers may be possible tomorrow, especially
near the high terrain but all in all it should be a much drier day.
High temperatures for tomorrow and Saturday look to be fairly
seasonable, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Sunday looks to
start dry, with increasing chances for precipitation as the day
progresses.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another wet period remains on track for early next week,
although there is a shift towards greater likelihood of most
rainfall occurring primarily Monday-Monday night, particularly in
Vermont. If model trends continue, PoPs on Sunday will continue to
decrease and PoPs on Monday increase further.

A complex upper air pattern with another slow moving system, this
time expected to track farther south across the Midwest, will lead
to a surge of moisture and precipitation over the eastern seaboard
as jet streaks oriented from south to north develop out ahead of the
system. This setup will support a plume of deep, tropical moisture
from the Gulf and Atlantic, described well by the Weather Prediction
Center in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook this morning in the days
4-5 period. As a result, we would see some training heavy rain
showers (PWAT axis near 2 inches with warm cloud depths greater than
12,000 feet), even amidst minimal instability.

However, many ensemble members are opening up this upper level low
over the weekend, and a deepening low pressure system moves
northeastward dragging a cold front or series of boundaries eastward
through the region. The operational ECMWF continues to show this
type of event. A lack of a stationary boundary would limit the risk
of excessive rainfall, although in this scenario would could see
impactful wind gusts, especially across northern New York, and
introduce a threat of severe thunderstorms more than flooding. Given
large spread in model guidance at this time, it is a bit of a wait
and see process today. With the wetter soil conditions ahead of this
system across much of southern and western Vermont and northern New
York, there is some concern for greater localized flood risk during
this upcoming event if ingredients come together in this same area.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The middle to later part of next week is fairly
uncertain as it is somewhat dependent on how the system early next
week plays out. Generally temperatures will tend to be on the warmer
side of normal, dependent on cloud cover. Upper level ridging is
currently favored on Tuesday and Wednesday, reducing the chances of
showers and thunderstorms and widespread cloud cover, relative to
Thursday. All together, the most likely warm and dry day appears to
be on Wednesday. However, the pattern looks unsettled enough that
there may be some showers each day in at least portions of our
region. The next, best chance of thunderstorms (roughly 30-40% per
GEFS machine learning guidance) appears to be next Thursday along
with a modest threat (10-15%) of severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...As a closed upper level low ambles to our
east, an isolated shower this afternoon could affect a terminal
or two. A combination of model and observations (satellite and
radar) suggest MSS, and possibly MPV, will have a direct hit
with perhaps brief reductions to MVFR, while chances are too low
at other sites to indicate in the TAF. Otherwise, some
lingering MVFR ceilings at RUT are anticipated to scatter out
within the next hour or so.

Main aviation impacts will be related to high probabilities of
fog development tonight given recent rain and light boundary
layer flow amidst mainly clear skies as high pressure builds in
from the west. While the high will not be directly overhead and
will be coming in from the southwest rather than northwest,
favorable factors for fog development include the moist low
level air in place with crossover temperatures in the low to mid
60s and lack of dry air advection tonight. As such, have
favored dense fog development for much of the overnight hours
at MPV and SLK, and towards daybreak at RUT. MSS will also have
at least intervals of fog and BTV may see a brief period of fog
make it to the runway around sunrise. With relatively little
recent rain at EFK and less consistent radiational fog
development climatologically, have only indicated BR at this
time at this site.

Aside from modest north winds at BTV and PBG near 10 knots this
afternoon, winds will be light/terrain driven through the
period, with a tendency to be from the northwest after 12Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Kutikoff
AVIATION...Kutikoff